Westminstenders: Election Special

[RedToothBrush]

Spreadsheet of declaration times from 2017 by constituency

sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/10/an-hour-by-hour-guide-to-election-night/
Key constituencies by declaration time to help you understand what might be going on

yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
YouGov MRP

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
List of seats by marginality and party targeting them

(correction: first time in 40 years ...)

Eek Seventies

I do worry about the environment though, I remember my secondary school science textbook said 'oil will run out in 2050' and I thought, 'that's ages away' but actually, it's not really.

I'm a bit uneasy about the high turnout - at the referendum it favoured Brexit.

Don’t you think this could be because people are more likely to be motivated to get out and try to change the status quo than to uphold it? That’s the hope that I’m clinging to, anyway!

Voted this morning. It was busier than I’m used to seeing, but maybe a combination of pre-9am time and people wanting to vote before it’s dark and even colder? We’re a pretty safe SNP seat although from the volume of leaflets we’ve been getting they certainly aren’t taking it for granted.

Camomila I know what you mean!! It feels like world events are just careering out of control like a train that has come off the tracks!! Any consolation....the seers said eventually good triumphs!🤪

I’m trying to work, but I’m struggling to concentrate. to concentrate. I have a growing sense of unease. Still another 12 hours until we reach the business end of the results.

Just looked at the Electoral Calculus site. The seat prediction gives Labour a majority of over 2,000. My ward is usually a safe Labour seat and that's not expected to change, but the wards of Coldharbour & New Eltham, Eltham North and Eltham South had Tory majorities in 2015. I'm not surprised - Eltham is synonymous with nationalism and BNP, of course. Just hoping there isn't a turnout of Leave voters on Brexit steroids this year, compared with 2015

💐

I voted late morning - my polling station was pretty busy with lots of people coming/going at the same time as me. Usually it's not busy at all.

I live in one of the safest Tory seats in the country (never been anything but blue for 130 years) - apparently it's so safe the Tory doesn't even campaign (that I've seen anyway) and didn't turn out for hustings last week. We have candidates from the big 3, plus the greens and an independent, all of which have been active and visible. I'm quite interested to see how the independent polls.

Anxious placemark. Will probably see a fair bit of the coverage later as will be up feeding endlessly greedy 3m old ds. Postal votes done weeks ago on a depressingly safe Tory seat, but have everything crossed

Just had a bloody awful thought, halfway through a work call.

• Johnson gets in with a sufficient majority
• Epic (on par with Sudan) mess made of international affairs
• We troop back to the polls within 18 months after his party splits and he still needs to "get Brexit Done".

That can't happen...right? It's nasty enough now, I don't want to think about another election with a bitter, angry electorate. Like Groundhog Day without the good bits.

TheABC

If

- Johnson gets in with a sufficient majority

Then there may never be another election again. So no need to worry that

- We troop back to the polls within 18 months

re: 'Good will triumph' now I'm thinking about Harry Potter ! Actually that would probably be a great way to stay awake, rereading all the books.

I didn't stay awake for the Brexit referendum so might try and stay up tonight.

We're in a very safe Tory constituency, voted to leave DH is usually the first to vote at 7am. He got there 6.50am to find eight people in the queue. Personally, I can't read anything into this.

The thing to remember with the Brexit vote was that 2/3 of constituencies voted to leave
but none of them by huge amounts
some remain areas were 95%
so it balanced out

with FPTP it does not balance out - there are 'wasted votes'

DGR what does the Tory party manifesto say about the role of the House of Lords? Monarch?

with FPTP it does not balance out - there are 'wasted votes'

But fewer wasted votes as the turnout goes up ... given that very few MPs actually won with > 50% of the electorate in their seat, it's entirely possible a higher turnout could have a significant effect ?

Checking in before the evening (telly) shift.

Trying to maintain some optimism - I have seen promising signs on Twitter that our Labour candidate might be doing an awful lot better than expected. Although realistically still unlikely to unseat the Tory incumbent, she could well make a big dent in his majority and that will be heartening. I'm taking the bright spots where I can find 'em, tbh.

The weather is now vile. Cold, dark, wet. My Tory-voting dad hasn't bothered going out and has put the Christmas tree up instead. Like I said, bright spots

We have pizza, wine, chocolate and blankets. Ds has requested Red Bull which he won't be getting! We're in for the long haul.

and [held thumbs]

Just been out to pick up DS from school.

Official Labour canvassers were out doing the street nearby and asking parents if they had voted.

Never seen anything like it!!

Does it sound like turnout might be quite high? Is that likely to favour Labour?

It definitely sounds like turnout is high but (pessimist hat on) that might be because if the winter election so people are voting earlier than they otherwise would.

I think a genuinely high turnout would probably favour Labour with more younger voters (well under 50 anyway!) but who knows these days.

They were going to vote LD, but I sent them a tactical voting site (thanks to this thread) and they held their noses, ignored their churning stomachs and voted Labour.

@PatienceThreadbare I cringed as I did it but we had to tactically vote here so you can tell your dss and husband that we have put in their libdem vote and we'll claim their labour votes!

Bloody awful weather so it's heartening to hear that the polls are busy. I've just had the Lib Dem's knock on the door but I'd already voted. Tactical vote here to get the Tory twat out. The lovely young chap predicted at least a big reduction in Tory Twats majority

Hazel Grove result expected around 3am apparently.

A happy thought I just had...When he wears his natty scarves Jeremy Corbyn reminds me of Dr Who a bit!

PMK!