Westminstenders: Election Special

[RedToothBrush]

Spreadsheet of declaration times from 2017 by constituency

sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/10/an-hour-by-hour-guide-to-election-night/
Key constituencies by declaration time to help you understand what might be going on

yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
YouGov MRP

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
List of seats by marginality and party targeting them

Dominic Grieve for Beaconsfield @dominicgrieve1
The rain isn't putting off volunteers and neither are tricky letter boxes! This volunteer came armed to do battle with letter box brushes :)

#GE2019 #CountryBeforeParty #VoteDominicGrieve

I just did some googling to understand how exit polls work. BBC says :
''The rough rule of thumb is an exit poll that comes within 15 seats of the final outcome is considered accurate, Prof Fisher says.''

Think I'll have a snooze after exit poll then up at 12 to watch live.

Infinitely more people at my polling station than usual, considering that there was a handful of people there and I don’t usually see anyone! I don’t think there’s been a massive turnout though, the clerk said that the weather is having an effect (definitely raining now) and is forecast to get worse later. It’s a safe Labour seat, though, so I expect it’ll be fine.

As I said on the other thread, it was pretty busy in our polling station this morning at 8:30. All young-to-early-middle-aged voters at that time, some with their kids on the way to school. I walked past a short while ago (just before lunch time), and it's still busy - there is a row of big windows facing the street so you can clearly see the desk area - more of the retired demographic now, but also a few middle-aged people.

It's been cold and damp all morning, and the weather is rapidly deteriorating. I wonder what effect that will have on late stragglers.

We should be safe Labour, with LD in second place, here.

Posted on the other thread but realised this was the election one! Delurking to say my area - Tory seat since forever AND one of the most deprived areas in the country - has been flooded with labour posters/banners/canvassing. They were on the main roundabout this morning and outside the school. I’ve had people knocking at my door and it seems every other window has a labour sticker. I’m praying that labour takes it.

DS's school are doing a mock election. Blind policy manifestos labelled a, b, c and d (to avoid being influenced by parents saying vote this that or the other) . Results will be announced tomorrow. Should be interesting to see how the results compare to the real one.

Delurking to thank everyone who contributes such knowledge and kindness to these threads - I've been dipping in and out for the past year or so.
I have voted - in the SW so have voted LD tactically hoping to get the incumbent Tory out! (I would rather vote labour or green if it wasn't FPTP). Absolutely pouring with rain here...
Will go out again later to take my rather frail husband to vote - although he has just asked me to remind him whether it's a general or local election... (he reads the Guardian every day but doesn't remember things properly anymore). Not sure I can persuade him to vote tactically but he won't vote Tory at any rate!
We have had lots of LD leaflets, including a letter from Paddy Ashdown's widow, a couple of Tory leaflets, no labour ones. I'm hoping Labour aren't trying very hard here in an attempt not to split the vote...

Should add it is a secondary, and loads are politically minded.

Are there schoolchildren demonstrating outside polling stations in Salford?

PMK. Thanks Red. Anyone in London going to see The Vote tonight? I really wish it was televised again.

Me too Angel and I don't even live there.

I can't help feeling a tiny bit hopeful that we will get a hung parliament. Had a chat with my Tory voting friend last night who was planning to vote Tory just as normal but changed her mind when I told her what Brexit would do to NI. She used to live there! Voting Green now.

I shall not have a drop of alcohol until the Exit Poll comes out.
Then I will decide whether to go to bed and get up early
or stay up late

I have no idea what tonight's outcome will be
but am absolutely and utterly certain that it will not Resolve Brexit

The calm before the shitstorm is my favourite description of today.
Thanks for the threads everyone. Here for a handhold.

I've never thought of schoolchildren voting before.

It's been going on for fifty years since the Age of Majority was lowered in 1969.

Our poor polling station teller was really struggling with the monsoon, he dropped the telling slips in a puddle.
I'm heading out to help this evening, but hopefully I'll miss the worst of the rain .

but am absolutely and utterly certain that it will not Resolve Brexit

I don't know about that. I still like to think that there's a deliberate, calculated outcome. I explained my reasoning a couple of years ago and I can still gerrymander the facts into my initial assessment of the plot.

I'm a pleasure to watch films with, as you can imagine.

NT PMK with a 🚍 and a 🐟

Lots of reports of the turnout being high.

Does anyone have an insight into which party is likely to benefit from that?

I think high turnout traditionally favours Labour but that may no longer be accurate ?

Weather here is dire

I’m still not convinced that the turnout is actually high. I suspect people are voting earlier in the day than usual (due to not wanting to go out in the dark or Christmas parties scheduled this evening).

High turnout traditionally favours Labour, but that was when the low-wage/no-wage disaffected all voted Labour if they voted.

We do know there are a hell of a lot of "Don't Knows" on the pollsters' forms, so their numbers may be quite a bit off, one way or another, not for the first time in recent years.

Lots of reports of the turnout being high.

I can recall queues (and riots ...) in the 2010 election. But turnout wasn't particularly out of line with the depressingly usual 2/3rds. Admitted up on 2005 though.

Lots of reports of high turnout, particularly among young voters. I've just voted and it was the busiest I've seen it, no queue though.

I think the early turnout among young people is because they are going out drinking tonight rather than a high turnout overall

Managed to get a tactical vote out of DH, who was threatening to spoil his ballot.

Many more proxy voters this time - I am usually the only one.