Westminstenders: Election Special

[RedToothBrush]

Spreadsheet of declaration times from 2017 by constituency

sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/10/an-hour-by-hour-guide-to-election-night/
Key constituencies by declaration time to help you understand what might be going on

yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
YouGov MRP

www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
List of seats by marginality and party targeting them

Britain Elects @britainelects
Labour nervous about holding Blyth Valley. Declaration in a few minutes...

YouGov forecast was likely Labour.
Labour min 38% predicted 45% and high of 53%
Con min 30% predicted 37% and high of 45%

Andrew Teale @andrewteale
Blyth Valley result in 2017: Lab 23770 C 15855 LD 1947 Grn 918. Previous MP was Ronnie Campbell (Lab), who is standing down.

I was speaking to an elderly woman today. She went on about how people shouldn't focus on leaders but rather party policies, Then went on to rabbit on about how she 'couldn't stand that man Corbyn'. Little to be gained by pointing out the gap in logic...

Now I just feel sick. Utterly sick.

born as I said it equates to roughly 0.1% of votes cast. Not necessarily statistically significant...

Well there are 650 seats, so probably a lot more than 110.

Actually I think I have to stay up - to try and understand this.

When it gets too depressing, I'll go to bed. Already depressing - but a small glimmer of sort of hope for something a little bit hopeful at least.

People favouring getting rid of corbyn over the wellbeing of the country is one of the reasons the UK is fucked

This.

Corbyn was always temporary. This direction-of-travel...isn't. Really, really isn't. We are fucked, because fucking idiots couldn't fucking well see past a leader they didn't much like.

I read somewhere that the Exit polls have been right for the last six elections.

I just don't believe any result that extreme could be completely wrong. It might not be quite as large as that.

But this has been coming, of course it has. A tory majority was always the likeliest result.

Britain Elects @britainelects
Blyth Valley turnout: 64%, down 3pts on 2017.

Election Maps UK @ElectionMapsUK
BBC indicates a 95% chance of the SNP gaining Jo Swinson's seat of Dunbartonshire East.

Potted

Yep, exit polls are pretty well established as a good indicator.

IIRC the exit poll in 2017 was right about a hung parliament, but underestimated the number of Tory seats. I really hope this one is overestimating the Tory majority.

110 polling stations sampled? That’s not a lot. Does anyone know how many polling stations there are in the UK? Google isn’t very helpful

Watching BBC and wondering the same. How do they extrapolate the exit poll to show votes across all constituencies? They sample 140 polling stations, but what about places where there has been a big tactical push?

It's beyond belief.
I knew it would happen , but I was hoping it wouldn't.

Poor old prettybird is going to have a lot of trouble accommodating all of you.

I can offer space in my front garden or large cupboard if she does get overcrowded, though.

My only (very tiny) consolation will be watching Ruth Davidson swimming naked in Loch Ness.

People favouring getting rid of corbyn over the wellbeing of the country is one of the reasons the UK is fucked

No. Britain under Corbyn and McDonnell would have become a bankrupt, failed state.

A moderate leader could have easily won this for Labour!

Thank you bercows , I'll try and hold on to those positive thoughts

According to BBC poll, my safe Labour seat is "too close to call"

I'm sure I heard on the news today, either Radio 2 or Smooth that there are around 4000 polling stations.

I hope the Labour Party regroup and get a new credible leader in 2020.
They need one.

All these fucking Labour Leavers voting Tory.

hazard

I'm allowing myself to feel sorry for myself this evening.

I'll be angry tomorrow.

Then the fight back begins.

Urgh, he's Nigel. Have muted.

Stinky Hazard iirc we three originally ‘met’ whilst taking refuge up an imaginary tree with lots of booze. Do you fancy climbing back up?