Westminstenders: The Undecideds

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

DH and I have been undecided but I think this morning have both separately come to the same conclusion. Although there is pretty much no chance of the current 15k Tory majority being overturned, if we don’t vote Libdem and they do manage to get anywhere near we’re going to regret it so tactical voting it is for us.

Someone has put Libdem tactical voting stickers on the lamp posts and it is getting some people hot under the collar on local Facebook group.

Worried about Nigel, and that bang on the head he got when his plane creashed.

First he says Tory Brexit deal is a betrayal and he will stand candidates against all Tories.

Then he says Tory Brexit Deal is not a betrayal and he will stand down candidates against all Tories.

Now he says Tory Brexit Deal is a betrayal, and that as Brexit Party leader he would not vote for Brexit Party but will draw a willy on his ballot paper.

And if young Nigel says he's happy, he must be happy, in his world.

Honestly what is a good reason for voting Conservative?

There is only one really. It’s the belief that Johnson, Rees Mogg, Duncan Smith etc will share a slice their utopian free market Brexit paradise with you.

It’s a belief that the you will profit from a Singaporesque low or zero corporation tax environment entailing low wages, weak trade unions, minimal welfare and state provisions, low consumer standards and temporary unprotected migrant ‘non-citizen’ workers.

TheElementsSong

I don't know what you do about the BarmyArmy. They're proof that propaganda works by shoring up cognitive dissidence. And that quite meagre scraps will suffice to shore up that cognitive dissonance.

Kevin Maguire is reporting that the mother of the boy in A and E was a Tory - but is now voting Labour.

So I guess we also now know what it takes to break through the cognitive dissonance and get people to change their minds: harrowing and extreme personal experience (of media bias round the truth along with the initial experience). ☹️

---

From Twitter:

Kevin Maguire
@Kevin_Maguire

'Awks for weirdo conspiracy theorists claiming this photo was faked that both the Leeds hospital and (Tory) Health Secretary apologised. Won’t stop the idiots, mind, peddling disgusting smears against the family. PS The boy’s mother was a Tory. She’s now voting Labour'

[Photo of front page Daily Mirror under Tweet]

BCF re violence.

The police advice to canvassers has been a lot stronger than in 2017.

And some local advice is actively being withheld from the public for various reasons.

I know candidates are scared to give a completely honest reply to voters when asked specific questions as they don't know how they will react. Trying to be diplomatic in this minefield is barely possible. It is sometimes easier to simply ignore difficult questions as a result. This isn't healthy for democracy but its the reality of the situation particularly in some areas or on certain topics.

I have a little more time for candidates dodging questions for this reason: particularly candidates who are standing knowing they haven't a chance of winning and come next Friday life will go back to normal.

However the flip to that stands when it comes to sitting MPs, particularly high profile ones and certainly for cabinet and shadow cabinet and party leaders.

They absolutely should be answering those questions in order to lead by example and to challenge those threats and to deal with certain issues properly.

The PM dodging interviews is the most cowardly of acts as he at least has security protection. Unlike those on the doorsteps

The Guardian also ran the Matt Hancok story initially with 'assault' in the headline, they then changed it to an 'altercation' before finally changing it to 'Tories accused of lying'. Took 3 goes to report an accurate headline, the comments section was furious with them.

The barmy army name is already taken. Many have been in NZ recently.

Hear hear Red

Those on the doorstep, at least some of whom genuinely care about our Country and where it's heading are fearful, those in power hide and run.

Shameful.

Isn't this the bit in an election where iys reported 'the markets will explode at a Labour victory?' And celebs queue up to say they will leave the country? Not a peep?

And received a BXP leaflet last night. Tongs all the way to the bin.

Now he says Tory Brexit Deal is a betrayal, and that as Brexit Party leader he would not vote for Brexit Party but will draw a willy on his ballot paper.

If ever there was a very good reason for not spoiling your ballot, it is that Nigel Farage thinks it’s a good idea!

PMK as ever thank you Red & all other contributors, currently listening to BBC radio London some numpty claiming the health service is not in crisis it’s all fine

PMK

She's a beauty Continuityerror

And received a BXP leaflet last night. Tongs all the way to the bin.

Haven’t seen a Brexit one yet, but the guinea pigs are cosily snuggled up to a shredded Jeremy Hunt

japancat They're proof that propaganda works by shoring up cognitive dissidence. And that quite meagre scraps will suffice to shore up that cognitive dissonance.

Having seen how the BarmyArmy gleefully mock squid4, an actual A&E doctor for venturing in there to debunk their far-right fake news, I'm once again glad that I don't post there. I do wonder whether anybody ever stops to think "Hang on a minute, I'm doing the verbal equivalent of chucking rocks, whilst my buddies laugh along. At a doctor, who works insane hours to save lives. Now, I know I'm on the righteous side of the universe because that's where all us Tories naturally belong, however many affairs and illegimate children we have in our closets, but maybe it's not quite naice to chuck verbal rocks at doctors?"

@prettybird

Thank you - she looks beautiful but snores like a pig!

I have a few Labour posters and a sign. I didn't want to put anything in my car in case it was damaged - I have done this before the Brexit vote but not now - so much for bringing back democracy and sovereignty.

This is a scary piece from Polly Toynbee

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/boris-johnson-revenge-bbc-channel-4-manifesto

Loving the pictures.

Press release from the Muslim Council of Britain:

10 December 2019

General Election 2019: Muslim Council of Britain accuses BBC of “failing to sufficiently report” on Conservative Islamophobia

Today the Muslim Council of Britain, the country’s leading British Muslim representative body has written to BBC Director General Tony Hall to raise its concerns about the lack of proportionate coverage of the Conservative Party’s “institutional Islamophobia”.

Reminding Mr Hall of the BBC’s responsibility as a public broadcaster to be impartial and consistent, the MCB has requested that “racism against Muslims be given equal importance to racism against others.”

The MCB’s Centre for Media Monitoring has been keeping a watch of the number, tone and prominence of BBC stories on the issue, which has received precious little attention by the broadcaster, despite statements by both the Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Conservative Party Chairman James Cleverly acknowledging and apologising for the issue.

MCB Secretary General, Harun Khan, said:

“The Conservative Party has an institutional, widespread problem with Islamophobia, which has been clearly documented both by the Muslim Council of Britain and other individuals, organisations and media outlets.

“Not only has the BBC not covered the full extent of Islamophobia in the Conservative Party that many in society feel should be being discussed this election, it has given platform to individuals who have used far-right Islamophobic hate. Melanie Phillips made an accusation that deception is a mainstream Muslim belief in The Times on 2nd December and was then a guest on Politics Live on 5th December.

“License payers, who include millions of British Muslims, are essentially paying to facilitate the incitement of hatred against themselves.”

ENDS

PMK

Been quiet for a while due to life stress but always reading the threads, thanks to all helpful posters!

The number of voters registered in each constituency is out. Someone is circulating a spreadsheet at the moment comparing 2017 figures with 2019 figures. They've done about half the constituencies so far

The top constituencies with voter numbers up are:

Southampton Test 13%
Nottingham South 12%
Birmingham Selly 11%
Faversham and Mid Kent 11%
Southampton Itchen 10%
Hackney North and Stoke Newington 9%
Dulwich and West Norwood 9%
Vauxhall 8%
Streatham 8%
Hackney South and Shoreditch 8%
Banbury 8%
Nottingham East 7%
West Ham 7%
Birmingham Ladywood 7%
Bristol West 7%
Kensington 7%
East Ham 6%
Portsmouth South 6%
Exeter 6%
Stafford 6%
East Devon 6%
Congleton 6%
Salford and Eccles 5%
Liverpool Riverside 5%
Norwich South 5%
Wells 5%
Eddisbury 5%
Saffron Walden 5%
Meriden Solihull 5%
North West Leicestershire 5%
Brighton Pavilion 5%
Derby North 5%
Bradford West 5%
Brent Central Brent 5%
Derby South 5%
Newcastle upon Tyne Central 5%

The top constituencies with registered voters down are:

West Dorset -2%
York Outer -2%
Wallasey -2%
Easington -2%
Gloucester -2%
Warley -2%
West Bromwich -2%
Denton & Reddish -2%
Huddersfield Kirklees -2%
Spelthorne -2%
Rotherham -2%
West Bromwich East -3%
Hyndburn -3%
York Central -3%

Interesting patterns in that. But overall voter registration looks the same or up slightly in most places.

Chaminda Jayanetti @ cjayanetti
I've done a big update of the registered voters seat-by-seat table.

Now has 348 constituencies, including those in Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester, Bolton, Uxbridge, and the first few through from Wales.

See it here - t.co/yJ5lZRl3wl

Here are the Birmingham seats grouped together.

The Tory targets are Edgbaston, Erdington and Northfield.

Ladywood and Selly Oak are Labour safe seats

Spot the pattern?

That said, those small rises in the Tory targets could make a big difference, even if they're not standouts

..

Laura Kuenssberg at least has company, as millions more are also making wretched fools of themselves over Johnson.

It's hard to shake a feeling that LauraK has made a fool of herself in a way that the millions may not have been able to. Some of the pictures of their trysts interviews appear to display some odd tells.

Here's that registration data in a handy interactive map: public.tableau.com/profile/chris.hoyle#!/vizhome/Electoratechange/Changeinelectorate

regarding Birmingham Edgbaston ... as of Sunday the canvasser tactic was the "everyone else is voting Tory" tactic to shift any remaining doubters.

Alexa: What does a Tory look like ?