Westminstenders: The Undecideds

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

Hopefully next years election will be in nicer weather!

LQ

That's a great message - definitely going to nick it (and share with certain people )

Hasenstein
This one is useful too
at work I have to deal with people of all political hues so I find these ones better to think about

Just to add my dad who has voted labour since the 50s is voting tactically tomorrow for the LDs. Am proud of him putting country before personal politics.

Stayinyourfridge - salutes to your Dad and your user name!

I didn't really follow the last threads, too much happening away from the screen.
I wish everyone all the best tomorrow. I'll be voting first thing in the morning (my first ever UK general election vote!) and will then fly home to see my mum.
I am hoping the Britain I'll come back to will get the change it desperately needs.

"Paç fat"

Following Oddschecker over the last few days - Tory majority is drifting out a bit and hung Parliament shortening, which suggests people think it’s getting tighter (although Tory majority is still favourite).

I am very fearful for tomorrow but I would like to say a big thanks to all of you who post here regularly - I have learnt so much from you.

In times of trouble I have always turned to poetry & I'd just like to leave one of my favourites here - it's done me well as a ray of hope during difficult times in my 60+ years:

Louis MacNeice
Autumn Journal

Sleep to the noise of running water
To-morrow to be crossed, however deep;
This is no river of the dead or Lethe,
To-night we sleep
On the banks of Rubicon — the die is cast;
There will be time to audit
The accounts later, there will be sunlight later
And the equation will come out at last.

I do believe that right will eventually triumph - if I didn't I don't know how I could go on.

We all have to hang on to hope - we really do.

And this is for all of you & especially for thecatfromjapan who gives me so much hope for the inherent goodness of so many people.

No vote for me (15 year rule), even though I am British and currently working on a projet in the U.K. Turned down a longer secondment because I can't risk losing my freedom of movement if I stay here. Leaving Friday, and I won't be sad to go.

Quite apart from politics London is pretty grim at this time of year. Coming out of Kings Cross tonight there was a young homeless girl sitting shivering at the front of the station, I talked to her for a bit and gave her some coins ... she had a bottle of cheap wine and she said "I know you think I'll spend the money on alcohol but living like this is unbearable without something to drink" ... so I gave her the rest of my change and then went back to my apartment hotel and cried. She didn't look much older than my daughter.

We can do better than this. We have to do better.

I like that magi very much.

Tonight's last polls

CON: 45% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
BREX: 3% (-)
GRN: 3% (+1)
via @DeltaPollUK, 09 -11 Dec
Chgs. w/ 07 Dec

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 32% (-)
LDEM: 13% (-2)
BREX: 3% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-)
Via @KantarTNS, 09 -11 Dec
Chgs. w/ 02 Dec

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 12% (-)
via @SavantaComRes, 09 - 10 Dec
Chgs. w/ 05 Dec

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 34% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-2)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)
via @PanelbaseMD, 10 - 11 Dec
Chgs. w/ 06 Dec

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 32% (-)
LDEM: 14% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
BREX: 3% (-1)
via @BMGResearch, 06 - 11 Dec
Chgs. w/ 06 Dec

Tom McTague @tommctague
Well, I’m getting very nervous Tory texts and very nervous Lab texts. Both worried the polls are missing something big. Lab MPs fear for seats YouGov says they shouldn’t and Tory strategists fear weak ground game means seats that should be in the bag are not 😳

Sam Freedman @samfr
Tory leads in final polls in 2017:

Qriously -2pts
Survation 1pts
Surveymonkey 4pts
Kantar 5pts
Opinium 7pts
YouGov 7pts
Panelbase 8pts
Mori 8pts
ComRes 10pts
ICM 12pts
BMG 13pts

I believe there is yet to be a survation poll in tonight.

7pt difference is into hung parliament area. Over 10 is good Tory majority.

At the start of the campaign it was felt that if Labour were polling at over 30% the Tories should start to get nervous.

On YouGovs MRP it had to be said that the odds of the seat flipping in the most vulnerable tory seats versus the most vulnerable Labour defences were much smaller: Labours seats were substantially more at risk.

That would suggest that the direction of travel was likely to go in the Tories favour unless there is a big Labour mobilisation tomorrow.

So the weather perhaps isn't great news.

This is a bit clearer

Matthew Goodwin @goodwinmj
Final polls*

BMG
Con 41, Lab 32, LD14

ComRes
Con 41, Lab 36, LD12

ICM
Con 42, Lab 36, LD12

Opinium
Con 45, Lab 33, LD12

Panelbase
Con 43, Lab 34, LD11

NCP
Con 43, Lab 33, LD12

Kantar
Con 44, Lab 32, LD12

Deltapoll
Con 45, Lab 35, LD10

YouGov
Con 43, Lab 34, LD12

Arsedarkly - i felt a change of name with an anti BJ message was necessary tonight

sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/10/an-hour-by-hour-guide-to-election-night/
An hour-by-hour guide to election night

Thanks for those poll results RTB.
I am feeling very jittery about tomorrow.
I’m overseas so my dad is going to proxy vote for me and I have persuaded my parents to vote Tactically.

The poll results are so different-someone’s bound to get it right by chance and then be lauded as a magical pollster for the next 5 years .

I recommend a Christmas present to cheer yourself up:
the whimsical Irish Border Kindle book with audiobook "I Am the Border, So I Am"

Lovely soothing Irish narrator - I've just listened to the sample here, because I'm saving my book for post-GE therapy

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Am-Border-So/dp/B07YN4G5SY/ref=tmmauddswatch0??

The Irish Borderr@BorderIrish*

• Just answer the question, Prime Minister.

Was the light on? Yes or no

• What people really want, Andrew, is for me to get on with being in the fridge

Last Survation poll for GB due “before midnight”.

www.survation.com/final-general-election-2019-poll-results-a-preview/

Survation poll fieldwork was yesterday and today, finishing at 10pm. So will include the timeframe of Hospital Floor, Leaked Ashworth Phone Call and Freezergate.

Adding my thanks here too to Cat / RTB / BigChoc and everyone else for the sanity in this thread when there's precious little of it seemingly in the wider world. Scary people gaining seats of power.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/the-guardian-view-on-viktor-orban-laws-controlling-culture

Thanks too to DGR for quite often making me laugh. A much needed antidote to depressing news.

Feels like we’re the violin players on the Titanic as it went down

Real difference in the mood here as opposed to the trending topics on Twitter as people wait for the Survation poll, due by midnight.
Don't lose hope yet ! Plenty of time to do that in future if tomorrow evening brings bad news.

For any lurkers:

Polls open from 7am-10pm

You do not need your polling card to vote

Saw this on FB and thought that it would amuse you lot but it does make a serious point