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Brexit

Westminstenders: The Undecideds

987 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/12/2019 19:55

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

OP posts:
Thread gallery
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sovielverloren · 11/12/2019 17:31

That Hancock video! Is anyone else put in mind of Father Dougal?

DGRossetti · 11/12/2019 17:33

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-delay-boris-johnson-deal-general-election-eu-barnier-leak-deadline-a9242346.html

Brexit trade negotiations cannot be finished in the timeframe claimed by Boris Johnson, the EU's chief negotiator has privately admitted – blowing a hole in the prime minister's big election promise to "get Brexit done".

In a leaked recording obtained by The Independent, Michel Barnier tells a private meeting that the UK's 11-month timetable to wrap up trade talks by 2021 is "unrealistic" and suggests negotiations will drag on until long after the end of next year.

"With regards to this agreement, we will not get everything done in 11 months. We will do all we can – we won’t do it all," Mr Barnier can be heard telling a group of senior MEPs at the closed meeting in the EU capital this week.

The recording sparked consternation from Mr Johnson's critics back in the UK, with the prime minister accused of "lying to voters" about Brexit and "playing the British public for fools" by opposition parties.

Mr Barnier, who was recently reappointed to lead the next round of Brexit talks for the EU side, told the meeting: “It is unrealistic that a global negotiation can be done in 11 months, so we can't do it all. We will do all we can to get what I call the 'vital minimum' to establish a relationship with the UK if that is the time scale."

He added that without a further extension of EU rules and regulations to Britain one or two years there would be another "cliff-edge" that could see Britain crash out on WTO rules.

"If there is no extension, we will still have a few months to achieve what I would describe as the minimum necessary for the economy and security or to prepare for a cliff-edge," the chief negotiator said – adding that the decision would have to be taken by the government in June, just over six months from now.

"Either we have a trade agreement or we will be in the WTO framework. We can’t take contingency measures on trade to give us more time … If there’s no deal, it is a cliff edge for trade."

The revelations will trouble voters thinking of supporting Mr Johnson's Conservatives on Thursday on the basis that the party would "get Brexit done" and put the divisive issue in the country's rear-view mirror.

Far from ending the saga, the tape shows that EU officials are planning for contentious talks to stretch on for years in much the same vein as they have since 2016.

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Mr Barnier has publicly entertained Mr Johnson's claims about timescales, in the apparently belief that the prime minister is the best hope for getting the withdrawal agreement through parliament. But in Brussels and other capitals the fact a free trade agreement cannot be negotiated in 11 months is an open secret among officials – as illustrated by the new tape.

We will not get everything done in 11 months. We will do all we can – we won’t do it all

Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator

On Wednesday giving his final address to voters Mr Johnson said he would "deliver on the result of three years ago and then move on, focus on the people’s priorities".

He claimed that arguments about Brexit would end by February – when the new round of talks would just be starting – and that the Government would be able to "focus on the issues that matter to you".

A spokesperson for the Conservative party declined to comment on the revelations in the recording, but opposition parties reacted with fury.

"This confirms what we knew already, Boris Johnson is lying to voters about his damaging Brexit plans," Liberal Democrat MP Tom Brake told The Independent.

Boris Johnson has repeatedly said he would get Brexit done quickly (AFP)

"He is taking the British people for a ride and simply cannot be trusted to be our prime minister."

Labour's campaign chief Andrew Gwynne meanwhile said: “Boris Johnson is playing the British public for fools. He’s hiding in fridges to dodge interviews precisely because his fake Brexit slogans can’t stand up to scrutiny, just like his empty words on the NHS.

“Johnson’s sell-out Brexit deal will put us on the fast-track to a cliff-edge No Deal Brexit. And that’s exactly what he wants, so he can drive the UK into a toxic trade deal with Trump and put the NHS up for sale to US drug companies.

“The only place Johnson’s sell-out Brexit deal should go is into the deep freeze, just like Johnson when he doesn't have the guts to face a reporter.”

The EU's 27 leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday this week for a summit without Mr Johnson, where they will discuss the next stage of Brexit talks and unveil their negotiating strategy and new instructions to Mr Barnier.

The strategy, which is due to be published just hours after polls close in the UK, shows talks will be much the same as before – led by Mr Barnier, with a string of make-or-break summits, and a new ticking clock and cliff edges, according to an early leaked draft revealed by The Independent last week. Leaders also conspicuously dropped a reference included in an earlier political declaration to use best endeavours to reach a deal by the end of the transition period.

The prime minister was also this week accused of misleading voters after he repeatedly claimed there would be no checks on goods crossing the Irish sea under his new deal – when in fact there would be.

DGRossetti · 11/12/2019 17:45

NYT Politics

@nytpolitics

· 18h

President Trump will sign an executive order defining Judaism as a nationality, not just a religion, thus bolstering the Education Department's efforts to stamp out "Boycott Israel" movements on college campuses

DGRossetti · 11/12/2019 17:46

Oops, posted too soon.

Remember that I predicted in the event of a US-UK trade "deal" it would be trivial to pass laws making it illegal to boycott (or provide information to allow people to boycott) US food ?

RedToothBrush · 11/12/2019 17:57

Re Laura K...

See I dont see this as necessarily being based on looking at actual ballot papers. Has she explicitly said this?

Its possible that this has been done via 'exit polling' by someone. In essence someone asks whether someone has postal voted and how they have postal voted. This wouldn't involve looking at ballot papers.'

This would be on dodgy ground too though:

Section 66A of the Representation of the People Act 1983 (as amended) makes it a criminal offence ‘to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be, based on information given by voters after they voted’.

However there is some historical precidence here though

The Times narrowly escaped legal action when it published an opinion poll in June 2004 on how people had voted in areas that had used all-postal ballots. Since the poll was published in the newspaper during the European parliamentary elections that it referred to, the Electoral Commission (an independent watchdog on elections) alerted the Crown Prosecution Service. The Electoral Commission stated that publishing such an opinion poll amounted to publishing an exit poll before voting had closed. However, the Crown Prosecution Service chose not to take any action against The Times

Source

Hence why Laura K (and the BBC editorial team) might also think they can get away with doing it too...

OP posts:
ListeningQuietly · 11/12/2019 18:03

Postal ballots are a potentially really dodgy area
its known that in some nursing homes 100% of residents vote the same way on the same day.
Farage wants to get rid of them as he thinks immigrants and students abuse them

I do wonder how much turnout / duplication checking is done after the vote
eg my question about
Student Turnout
Are young people counted as not having voted when they actually did, just somewhere else ?

BirdandSparrow · 11/12/2019 18:06

That Tales from Green Valley is ace. You can watch it on Youtube. That's how I watched it. There are a few similar ones, like Tudor Farm and so on.

Stinkyeddie · 11/12/2019 18:07

It was filmed the year I was pg and gave birth to ds1

For the GofT fans amongst us, it's narrated by ser alliser thorne!

dontcallmelen · 11/12/2019 18:08

StarryGazeyEyes we can huddle together, I can’t shake off the feeling of impending sense of doom n gloom & what we may all be facing.

ListeningQuietly · 11/12/2019 18:11

BirdandSparrow
I love pretty much any programme with Ruth Goodman in it
proper Slow TV

Stinkyeddie · 11/12/2019 18:12

Yep!

ListeningQuietly · 11/12/2019 18:13

Re Christmas Trees
Not this Sunday, next Sunday, if you can get there, this is well worth it.
Its a cold, dark, early start
but will reaffirm your faith in the world
no matter what happens tomorrow
www.english-heritage.org.uk/visit/places/stonehenge/plan-your-visit/winter-solstice-at-stonehenge/

BirdandSparrow · 11/12/2019 18:15

Yes, I watch a lot of that kind of stuff on Youtube (I'm abroad), it's all I can cope with these days.

UtterlyPerfectCartoonGiraffe · 11/12/2019 18:19

mobile.twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1204823113243996160
Again, to our complete unsurprise:

Westminstenders: The Undecideds
Stinkyeddie · 11/12/2019 18:25

Oooh
I really didn't like Stonehenge LQ
It felt (shudder) malevolent

Stinkyeddie · 11/12/2019 18:26

Did any of you watch britannia on sky 1?
Loony but I enjoyed it

MockersFactCheckMN · 11/12/2019 18:28

Student Turnout: Are young people counted as not having voted when they actually did, just somewhere else ?

The system has no way of knowing if students have voted twice, which is illegal but impossible to detect unless you check by matching the counterfoils to the voter lists, but that only tells you someone has voted in someone's name, not who it was. Persistent tales of younger siblings voting underage using older sibling's vote.

Regards the postal votes, as I said on another thread, this may be based on numbers of postal votes from particular wards.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 11/12/2019 18:30

Tory Candidate Faces Questions Over App That Charged Food Banks Hundreds of Pounds

novaramedia.com/2019/12/11/tory-candidate-faces-questions-over-app-that-charged-food-banks-hundreds-of-pounds/

PurbeckStone · 11/12/2019 18:33

And another BBC reporter who...errr....unfortunately 'misspoke', as DGR so aptly put it earlier.

Here she is, talking about how Boris Johnson will take the UK out of the EU, if he gets the majority he 'so deserves':

twitter.com/i/status/1204770212014370818

Hazardexhausted · 11/12/2019 18:33

I'm despairing but bookies are slashing odds.

Westminstenders: The Undecideds
MaudBaileysGreenTurban · 11/12/2019 18:40

Why do I have a Vote Conservative banner ad on this page? Hmm

So my idiot Tory MP surpassed himself last night with crass remarks about cancer-treatment waiting times Angry Never knowingly off-message though, the vile git. Career before country.

I feel despondent. DP and I have significant amounts of wine and chocolate in for tomorrow night, and Politics A-level student ds is staying up with us. I am praying for a hung parliament but I do fear the worst.

I just want to say thank you, though, to all the regulars on this thread and a fistbump to my fellow lurkers. You are fucking amazing. A special thanks to thecat, though, whose posts are consistently uplifting and with whom I find myself agreeing more every day. Whatever happens tomorrow, you are fabulous Flowers

This isn't the country I thought it was. But these threads give me hope. Things will change for the better - maybe not tomorrow, but they will.

Piggywaspushed · 11/12/2019 18:42

Just seen Deborah Meaden's Twitter video.

Always liked her!

I feel like I trust her more than Boris Johnson.

ListeningQuietly · 11/12/2019 18:46

StinkyEddie
Many years ago my family and I had reached peak despair at West Quay so went up to Stonehenge for the Winter Solstice
it was the most wonderful morning
hatstand but wonderful
and we had breakfast at Reeves in Salisbury on the way home
what's not to love Grin
Have you been inside the stones?

DryIce · 11/12/2019 18:47

m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=0ttK2Ngjwho

This is all over FB, I'm in a nearby constituency. I really want her to win!

ListeningQuietly · 11/12/2019 18:48

By the way, I converted a Tory voter at work today
I asked them whether they agreed with Page 48
they looked horrified. Checked a link or two and followed my advice to consider tactical voting (as will their spouse and parents )

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