Westminstenders: The Undecideds

[RedToothBrush]

Apparently the pollsters are nervous.

There are far more undecided than there have been at this stage in recent general election.

This makes it a hugely fine line between a hung parliament and a massive tory majority.

The weather on Thursday isn't expected to be nice and this could affect turnout. The blue corner are particularly nervous about this, but don't forget those postal votes.

Whatever happens on Thursday at least this election campaign is nearly over. And that can't be a bad thing.

And Christmas is in a fortnight so we can all drown our sorrows or celebrate in style.

You always have time to restock the drinks if you end up resort to them on Thursday

(New election special thread on Thursday rather than bunging up Westminstenders BTW)

Iwan Doherty
@IwanDoherty98
·
49m
My article today for
@novaramedia
discussing Labour's proposal for unitary taxation, a policy that has mostly gone under the radar. I outline how it works and why it can dramatically reduce tax avoidance.

novaramedia.com/2019/12/10/why-labours-tax-plans-will-be-a-sharp-shock-for-corporate-tax-avoiders/

This little gem is tucked away on the technology section of the BBC news site.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50726500

Headline: Election 2019: 'Ads are indecent, dishonest and untruthful'

findings right at the bottom: 88% of tory ads found to include claims debunked by independent fact checkers

So how many labour ads were dishonest, indecent and untruthful? 'For labour it said that it could not find any misleading claims
so ... 0%

ah but but but - labour voters are more likely to share unpaid for electioneering posts than tory supporters. And it said one of these contained a disputed claim.

So that's all equal and that headline is fair and honest and balanced isn't it?

FFS BBC - the story here is 88% of tory online ads are indecent, dishonest and untruthful. Frame it right you biased pravda fuckers! And don't then tuck it away in the technology section.

Do you know...
I think it's all starting to get to me tbh...
Just sobbed through the film "Nativity!"

This is where the BBC cribbed the story from:

firstdraftnews.org/latest/thousands-of-misleading-conservative-ads-side-step-scrutiny-thanks-to-facebook-policy/

Look at the difference in framing! The BBC actually went out of the way to change the headline to protect the tories.
The BBC needs to go.

pretzels It's unbelievable, isn't it?

Don't worry - despite their pathetic fawning over the tories the BBC are finished.
The idea they ever trusted the tories in any sort of "deal" is so ridiculous.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/workington-man-still-doesnt-know-who-to-vote-for-in-the-general-election-mv0kncmvr
Workington Man still doesn’t know who to vote for in the general election
Francis Elliott finds few have made their minds up in the crucial swing seat of Workington in Cumbria

Given that the Tory strategy was to win 'Workington man' the fact that Workington Man is still undecided shows the strategy hasn't cut through as well as they hoped. It doesn't mean that they won't ultimately win, but by God this will be fraying nerves in Labour and Con HQs.

from my FB

A junior doctor has accused conservatives of causing unnecessary deaths www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/doctor-johnson-thousands-deaths-nhs-patient

pretzels the 88% is, however, trending on Twitter at least!

For fuck's sake :

88% -Tory/ERG include claims debunked by independent fact checkers

0% labour ads misleading.

Yet the polls still show what they show.

I don't want to absolve the Tory/ERGs as they've sanctioned the campaign. If what I've read is correct the campaign is masterminded that imported Aussie political strategist ( Isaac Levido) plus his kiwi duo of digital specialists. Surely this was a high risk strategy?

I don't know if any of the trio have worked here before and have a feel for UK politics? I get the impression they were parachuted in as a hit squad after their Aussie victory earlier this year? So perhaps not enough acclimatisation -but still they seem to be winning and are pushing at an open door anyway - so don't know why I'm pondering really.

I've received an email from the Lib Dems. It said that in my constituency the only party that can win against the SNP is the Lib Dems. Not Labour and not the Tories. In fact, we have a Tory MP, and the Lib Dems came 4th behind the SNP and Labour last election. By a long way.

Sorry loads of typos -as.always.

Torch...
I really think the lib dems have lost the plot

Someone's done cool stuff with the voter registration data, analysis h/t Ben Ansell:

livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/TacticalVoting_GE19/

@cjayanetti has done an amazing service for #GE19 by collecting 2019-19 changes to the electoral rolls by constituency. I've merged this data into my GE predictor gizmo. Scroll down and you can see how many seats are marginal enough to be affected 1/n t.co/b08okaOEki

Using the Best for Britain MRP polling estimates we see about 24 seats where this could matter, though only about 6 or 7 look like Lab to Con switchers and 1 is a Con to Lib. With uniform national swing only 12 seats are affected using BfB's aggregate poll numbers 2/n

With tactical voting at the cross-over point (36% of Lab / Lib voters switch and we get a hung parliament) then 34 seats are in the zone where electoral roll increase is larger than the majority - at least using BfB estimates. 3/n

So, does the electoral roll increase matter? Likely only in a dozen or so seats in a meaningful way. But, yes it could. Presuming all new voters vote the same way... which they won't... n/n

Have now adjusted the code to give the right number of seats that could be affected in the baseline - just 19. With successful tactical voting 28. So tactical voting amplifies effect of new registrations. Oh and sorry, this is England and Wales only.

StinkyEddie It's wild, isn't it? Did they not notice what happened to the DUP?

Just a quick vomit over the stupid ConservativeActually PPB... and also to ask in anyone has quick response which I can c&p onto fb to latest claims that small boy with pneumonia on floor was fake news?

While I believe Laura K was very wrong yesterday, I think it is totally unacceptable for her to be bullied left right and centre for it.

There is a distinction between bullying, and being held to account for your actions. There's also an asymmetry at play here. LauraK is acting as a mouthpiece for bullies herself and has the entire BBC machine behind her. She's not the helpless victim of bullies by a long chalk.

If she is being bitten by fleas, it's because she's laid down with dogs.

Yolo at least one of the Leeds General truthers who claimed to be a nurse was a serial liar who also claimed to have worked in supply chain at JLR for 30 years.

Standard issue Brexit troll basically, with the same pedigree as our ploppers.

www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/boy-was-on-hospital-floor-because-he-wanted-to-get-brexit-done-says-johnson-20191210191629

What about this article, Yolofish:

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/health/do-not-believe-a-stranger-on-social-media-who-disappears-into-the-night-an-open-letter-from-our-editor-to-you-1-10147697

yolofish
You could copy and paste from here, which is an overview and analysis of how the story has been turned into a mess of disinformation:

twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1204365894954180608?s=21

I emailed James Mitchinson, editor of the YP, after he was interviewed on the BBC regarding government reaction to flooding. He was excellent in the interview and I got a very fast response thanking me for my support.
He’s a seriously good journalist, one who is doing a proper job and deserves admiration and respect, unlike many with higher profiles who are no better than political groupies.