Westminsterenders: Talent or Colour

[FishesaPlenty]

RTB and BCF are presumably busy with more important things. I'm clearly not qualified to start a Westminsterenders thread - but somebody has to take control and collect the waifs and strays.

The party of no talent want to introduce no colour into our lives.

6 days to the election.

Johnson is still a liar.

Corbyn is still apparently loved by Labour members and hated by everyone else.

Swinson is still a charming PTA chair.

That, I think, is messaging for the people they need to win over, mother. The 'I din't want to vote Conservative but I fear Corbyn' vote.

Is it successful? Was it right? Was it effective? We don't know yet.

It's interesting that John Major, for example, has waded in with a far more direct message aimed at those people: 'Don't vote Conservative. These people are a danger.'

But then, he's able to do that because of who he is.

And is his approach working any better?

Who knows.

And if you look at what she actually says, it's quite carefully worded.

Current analysis of Conservative voters suggests that they are losing a few of their middle class voters - the ABs that we might once have assumed to be a core constituency - but they are picking up the Brexit (older) working class.

🤷‍♀️

It's all very volatile.

In a media climate that is determined to hammer Corbyn, adding to that hammering was probably not great.

But we are in a shockingly unnuanced political moment.

It's amazing how well Caroline Lucas manages to come across. But she is, I think, truly exceptional. And a testament to just how exceptional you have to be to communicate well in this current, appalling, political soundscape.

It's interesting that John Major, for example, has waded in with a far more direct message aimed at those people: 'Don't vote Conservative. These people are a danger.'

But he is, I think, only able to use this message because it is certain that Corbyn won't get a majority.

I also like Corbyn but maybe not as much as you do

I dont particularly like Corbyn as such, he's not a very good orator and has made some questionable choices in his 35 years as an MP but he isnt tainted by the iraq war, its still quite an issue for some by all accounts.

What I do like is the direction of travel on policy, Red Ed (I say that as a term of endearment) got fucked over by the Blairite PLP, what Ed wanted was more left than the 2015 manifesto but the power was held in the PLP, since Corbyn the power has been given back to members and thats why you are seeing the focus on social inequality in the manifesto.

Agree 'Just it is about the direction of policy, and for me a clear move to the left.

Nothing to add except a positive placemark.

I repeat: most of my under-45 group loathe Johnson. I checked in with my Brexity sister on the basis I am in a Remainer bubble and the language about him was rather steamy. I have no idea how she will vote.

The problem is the demographics. Baby boomers and the generation below them are bigger and do vote, hence their disproportionate power in voting booth. Until that lifts, we are not going to see any change, fast.

Very late thanks to fishes

Laura Parker is such a firebrand here she is dropping a few truth bombs on the BBC, her tweet doesnt really tell you much but the vid clip is a beautiful thing

Laura Parker
@ParkerCiccone
·
9h
I wouldn’t trust Boris Johnson to run a jumble sale, let alone the country

twitter.com/i/status/1203083794426806272

Jo Swinson has been a disaster. Listen to her Woman's Hour interview yesterday to hear how poisonous and stupid she is.

pmk

I love Laura Parker, Just.

Apparently, according to a Twitter meme doing the rounds, that makes me 'New Soft Left'.

If 'old soft left women' were characterised by the ubiquitous 'soft left bob' hairstyle, I think the 'new soft left' is slightly 'ageing rock chick' blonde, shoulder-length hair. 😁

Quoting thecat : I'm just going to repeat this: John Major is telling people not to vote Conservative.
That's a former conservative PM, in case you don't know.
Chris Patten, former Tory Party Chairman saying the same.

Listen to them!!

And for all of you who are advised to vote LD to keep the Tories out, but are put off by Jo Swinson: voting for your local LD candidate is, realistically, not going to make her our next PM. If you are not in her constituency, you can't even vote for her directly.

I'm voting (have already voted) on the basis of what I want for the future, not based on who voted for/against something in 19-oat-cake. As I've said before, I'm not marking their past performance as a MP, I'm voting for the future of this country.

Electoral Calculus website currently has the torys with a 20 seat majority.

It gives a breakdown by seat (I think it's an MRP model).

It also gives a breakdown in each seat of each ward. Which is just fascinating to the nerd in me.

My seat is supposed to flip blue but there's only 1000 votes in it. I do wonder about that and have a suspicion it may be considerably closer.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Here's the link.

The Electoral Calculus prediction was from later data than the YouGov one.

YouGov next MRP poll is due 10pm Tuesday but they have an ordinary Sunday Times one before then too.

I've seen a claim on Twitter that Yougov is Tory-owned. It's been refuted - counterclaim that it's share-holder owned.
It was founded by Stephan Shakespeare and Nadhim Zahawi who are both Conservative Party activists - NZ is, of course, an MP now.

It also gives a breakdown in each seat of each ward. Which is just fascinating to the nerd in me

How can they be that accurate? Surely you'd need a very accurate model with lots and lots of accurate data to model to that accuracy?

I understand MRP - but I think there are so many variables, local effects and tactical voting that can't be modelled with the data available.

I should also cavet that electoral calculus was WAY off last time. They predicted one of the largest tory majorities of any of the pollsters.

So I'd take a huge pinch of salt here but interesting none the less.

YouGov is Tory owner isn’t it?

I’m the generation below the Boomers. Me and all my colleagues/friends vote Labour. So apart from the comment being ageist, my generation lived through the hell of the Thatcher years, massive youth unemployment, and an endless horrible Tory government. The miners strike, the poll tax, massive unemployment, interest rates at 15%. Why exactly would we vote Conservative after 15 years of shit in our teen/young adult years? Please don’t make sweeping statements.

Re tory local press - yesterday I googled "people of talent" (with quotes so I go references to the phrase - I wanted to see if Boris had used the phrase before.
I got upto 9 pages before I stopped - all of them headlines from 'local' paper sites reporting 'broadcaster apologises' the consistency of the headlines showed they were all taking the same feed. ie MSM influence propogates across all local media too - that's actually a huge channel.

I had to set the search to stop at 5th before I got anything else - all fairly esoteric apart from references to articles explain that johnson's recent use of the phrase was divisive - nothing suggesting the phrase was in general use.

Me too!
I don't see many 45 snd under voting tory tbh
But, unless voter turnout in the under 45 group goes up then its a tory majority

I'm also desperately clinging tp the fsct that the polls were SO wrong last time...

YouGov was the only one just before the election that called a hung parliament, right?

Even so, I'd argue no pollsters are asking the right demographic....

Sadly, most boomers will vote tory or bxp. Not all (don't flame me!) But statistically, most.

If these people are who the pollsters are speaking to, then, surely their results have a tory bias?

Are they polling students at universities?
Under 45s specifically?

^ you will grasp from the above that I dont know much about polling!!

Is that about my comments on the younger voters being very Labour and older voters ---> Conservatives, emoji?

Statistically, it is true - sadly.

I'm GenX - and I find it baffling why someone who went through the Thatcher years would vote for Johnson. Absolutely baffling. Really baffling.

And we're a generation noted for a degree of cynicism (or, as we might have put it: demystification - which was a political concept that made it as a pop song, for goodness sake!).

But ... I don't get to make the statistics. 🤷‍♀️