The Brexit Arms - Counting Down the Days...

[SingingLily]

Welcome to the Brexit Arms!

We are temporarily under new management but worry not, the ship is still steady as we sail on to 12 December. A quick recap of the events of the last week or two:

📋❓💙❤️💛⁉️💙‼️🤷🏼‍♀️🤦🏼‍♀️😀☹️😀☹️😧😱🙄😬🤥🤔😂🤣😂🔥💨⛈🌥🌦🌤☀️

Anyone of any political persuasion who is prepared to join in, eschew goadery, and enjoy a laugh, welcome. First drinks are on the house.

Bellini - I don't think "all Westminsterenders are Remain voting Corbyn lovers" (& it's not the impression I've got from other posters here either)

They're predominantly Remain obvs, and predominantly anti Tory (not just because of Brexit but generally anti-Tory)

There's a very small few who are Corbyn lovers but mostly I don't get the impression that there's a lot of Corbyn love going on over there - it seems to me that most would support Labour or Lib Dem under normal circumstances but there's a great deal of nose-holding going on wrt voting for either at the mo for varying reasons (with remain/2nd ref/anti BJ being their primary motivation to vote for either)

I've said before on here, even if Brexit was not in the mix I'd have voted Tory anyway because I abhor Labour/Lib Dem in current form

If Labour under Corbyn were the only party offering Brexit I would be in the same position as you are now & I would not be able to bring myself to lend Corbyn's Labour my vote (so, like you, I would rather spoil it)

I couldn't give a toss which party people vote for - it's their decision; similarly, I couldn't give a toss how people voted in the ref

The only thing that affects how I interact with someone is if they are engaging in good faith or not
I've zero time for goady fuckers & if anyone is personally offensive to me at any point they get no quarter from me from that point onwards

So, big vat of wine/gin/beer for everyone is in order I think & then we just need to get the next 2 weeks over with so we've at least then got some clarity over the direction ahead 🍷 🍺

Nah I think the modelling is wonky. Even a 12 seat majority looks weird.

The model looks to be based on usual LibDem cross country spread. Atm the extra LibDems are concentrated in Remain areas which are already relatively more Labour leaning. Therefore the relative vote gap between Labour and Tory is actually much wider than universal polling suggests in Leave areas and narrower in Remain areas (mainly London).

My hunch is supported by the regional polling coming out of YouGov.

None of the modelling copes very well with relative vote concentrations in Scotland which is what started me looking at it.

I’m so glad there are some clever cookies in here who understand how to analyse and extrapolate from these polls. It’s all a complete mystery to me!

Yes, you're right, Howabout. Blue votes piling up in blue areas and red ones on red areas.

None of the modelling copes very well with relative vote concentrations in Scotland which is what started me looking at it.

Umm, my memory might be faulty on this but Edinburgh is less SNP-leaning than Glasgow but there are individual wards in Edinburgh that are definitely SNP - that type of thing?

Ooh, don't mean to derail but I've just come across this:

The Labour Party manifesto says that “the Labour Party would decriminalise abortion in Britain, making it legal to have an abortion for any reason up to the birth of a child”.

For any reason? Up to the birth of a child? So all those doctors and midwives and nurses who are allegedly running into the arms of Jezbollah would vote for the right to abort a full-term baby at the same time - and in the same part of the hospital - as helping others to arrive safely in the world?

Why hasn't this received greater attention?

It’s certainly a controversial topic Singing, with many thoughtful and considered viewpoints from either side but overall, I am of the belief that once a fetus/child is viable for life (with or without medical attention) outside the womb, then unless there is a specific danger to the mothers health, or the unborn child has severe and specific health problems, that would ultimately be life limiting or catastrophically disabling, then yes. It is (IMO) unethical to end a pegnancy beyond that point, I believe it is also at that point, unethical to expect medical professionals to carry this out too.

Outside Glasgow is difficult to model because there are relatively large amounts of both LibDem and Conservative voters. In the past the SNP vote was a tactical anti-Labour vote (proxy tartan Tory ). The SNP are fast becoming proxy Labour in Scotland. In bits of Glasgow this equates to SNP + Labour but elsewhere for every vote the SNP gain from Labour they lose to someone else. If they don't already hold the seat then the anti-SNP vote is signposted but in some places they still have Labour vote share to gain to compensate.

The varied fortunes of the LibDems and UKIP / Brexit Party are reminiscent of this sort of shifting.

None of the polling in 2017 predicted 13 Scottish Tory seats or SNP going as low as 35 (from 56 in 2015)

And I am as pro choice as it comes.

I'm with you on this, Epic.

Scotland is a fascinating electoral geography isn’t it? I’m not Scottish, so some of the internal issues don’t resonate with me as an outsider, therefore It’s really good to have a specific and insightful perspective to it all. The SNP, tend to do a mighty fine Job of speaking as if they ARE scotland at times, so it’s good to have some Balance!

“Why hasn't this received greater attention?”

And. Good bloody question!

Difficult to know where the pro-Union pro-Remain votes will go, then, Howabout, as well as the pro-independence Leave votes. Polling so far seems to suggest that the Conservatives might lose one or two seats but otherwise hold.

In the meantime, the Labour candidate for East Renfrewshire is telling voters not to vote Labour because of anti-semitism. That will be a boost for Paul Masterton, especially if they are Labour Leave, but I think it still hangs by a thread.

Epic we are polar opposites again. I can see both sides but for me the rights of the mother over her body always trump the rights of the unborn child.

I accept that my view is generally viewed as extreme so I am surprised to see this in a Labour manifesto.

Tbh, it shouldn't be a surprise to any of us to see anything outside the mainstream in this manifesto. I think it might have got lost under the weight of noise about other stuff. Wait till I next see my stepson . I guarantee he will be horrified by this as he is what might be described as moderate pro-choice.

Why hasn't this received greater attention?

I'm guessing because the manifesto doesn't say that at all.

East Renf is well heeled Remain central. That is why Paul Masterton was so vocally Remainy. Their pips have been squeezed continuously by the SNP so I don't see them voting anything other than Tory. They will tell themselves it is because they are prioritising the Union over Brexit.

The mess with the new hospital in Edinburgh on top of the trams mismanagement may well see the same effect there. However the LibDems are more of a presence there and give a Remain / Union / Austerity option.

I find that shocking SingingLily, and can't believe that it's not been picked upon and publicized. Choice is one thing, but with the advances in medicine, I would have expected the limited to be reduced not extended.

Thanks for flagging that up.

It's bollocks.

The plan is to bring the law in England, Wales and Scotland into line with the existing (new) law in NI.

“I accept that my view is generally viewed as extreme so I am surprised to see this in a Labour manifesto.”

I don’t think it’s an extreme view at all How, you have come to it from the right place, by prioritising women and with your own lens, as you have evidenced by your post. I just am yet to be convinced that there is any overwhelmingly legitimate reason, to discontinue a pregnancy at such a late stage. Unless there are specific mitigating factors. Hence why I disagree with such a ‘blanket policy’.

There is room however imo, for a policy that allows for specific mitigating reasons, to be assessed on an individual basis beyond a specific point.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-manifesto-abortion-rights-reproductive-corbyn-women-a9212481.html

BBC are carrying a news article contrasting availability of emergency contraception and well women services across the UK today. If these services are well funded and managed then abortion rates tend to be lower and they happen earlier.

Cuts to support for families also tend to increase abortion rates.

I would need to read the manifesto to see whether this is in fact the focus rather than the right wing dog whistle suggesting encouragement of late term abortion on demand.

I beg your pardon, Baloney.

Page 48 says that the Labour Party will "uphold women's reproductive rights and decriminalise abortion". Full stop. Just "decriminalise abortion". Not "abortion up to [insert preferred time limit here]". Not "abortion up to [time limit] in [insert justifications here]".

Just "decriminalise abortion". End of.

What's your interpretation of that?

I certainly agree with decriminalising. It’s a disgrace in the modern age that Women are deemed criminals for terminating an unwanted pregnancy, even if these days it remains symbolic rather than an actual chargeable offence. From what I understand though, isn’t the criminalising factor ‘supposed’ to be about protecting women from the dangers of unlicenced professionals carrying out terminations? I could of course be wrong though, so please dont take that as a statement of fact on my part.

“I would need to read the manifesto to see whether this is in fact the focus rather than the right wing dog whistle suggesting encouragement of late term abortion on demand.”

Fair call.

Thanks Baloney. That makes sense. I thought it odd at the time that MPs imposed more liberal abortion laws on Northern Ireland than the rest of the UK from the back benches.

The Northern Ireland decision is unenforceable and unsupportable unless the UK position is brought into line.