Westminstenders: Manifesto or Bust?

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party aren't doing one.

The Labour Party apparently can't afford theirs.

The Conservatives will just lie anyway.

And the LDs got upstaged by Prince Andrew's resignation from royal duties for being a fuckwit.

3 weeks to go...

Feel like I'm screaming into a void

You’re not. We’re listening to you and the doctors who post the reality on Twitter too. You’re doing a wonderful job against impossible odds.

@Mistigri , any criticism of JC on here appears not to be allowed. Only Tories hate Corbyn. Everyone else loves him apparently. He is The One.
You tell me.

I've been saying in the Brexit Arms that not all Westminsterenders are Corbyn lovers. Turns out, I was wrong.
Are you drunk ?

No, are you?

@bellinisurge, that’s nonsense. There are many LibDems and nose holders here. I’m frustrated that you’re wasting your vote but there’s no point in trying to dissuade you.

Nicola Sturgeon ruled out lending the Tories any kind of support on QT the other night.

I've been saying in the Brexit Arms that not all Westminsterenders are Corbyn lovers. Turns out, I was wrong.

Well I'm not - even if I do plan to vote Labour. I'll quite happily write you a 4 page A4 essay on why Corbyn is deeply flawed to the point of being unlectable. But (a) unless you pay for it you can jog on and (b) it still won't change my intention to vote.

Being thickheaded to the point of obstinacy isn't confined to the Tories

But the weighting methodology is surely little more than finger in the air as its not transparent also

Whether it's transparent depends on whether the company publishes it.

But as a general comment, dismissing polling because you don't like the result is a bit trumpian.

Polling isn't an exact science, and sampling/weighting choices can and should be critiqued, but using statistical methods to make forecasts isn't "finger in the air".

There are many LibDems and nose holders here
This

I was talking to lifelong Labour supporter friends last night.
Some still think the sun shines out of Corbyn's arse
but most realise that we are stuck with him at the helm of that party
and a vote that allows Bozo to drive the country over a cliff
IS a wasted vote
So we will do what we have to
for the greater good

My constituency is a straight fight between Labour and Tory . The Brexit Party probably fancy their chances in this "safe Labour seat".
They will probably take votes off either side and Labour will still win.
I won't vote Lib Dem or Green. I thought about it but can't bring myself to.
So this seat will go Corbyn's way, whatever. I'm not being a part of it but I damn well going to cast my vote.

Only Tories hate Corbyn. Everyone else loves him apparently. He is The One. You tell me.

Oh please. Lots of criticism of Corbyn on here; at a rough guess I'd say that the Corbyn sceptics outnumber the Corbyn fans by at least 2:1.

squid I hear you, and thank you and your colleagues. So glad my DM died before this shit show, because she would have been one of your 90 year olds screaming on a trolley.

bellini you sound really upset, and you are normally so calm... I hope you are ok.

Currently I'm going Lab as a protest vote (very much doubt the execrable Damian Collins will be ousted) although there is a great deal of nose-holding going on, and I guess that's almost a luxury too, in that my vote will make no real difference but at least I can say 'not in my name'.

Isnt that what our right wing ploppers always say?

Yes, it's just common or garden bad faith.

The spectrum of political opinion on here is pretty wide but I would say that with a very few exceptions (poster looking at you ) it is almost entirely to the right of Corbyn.

I can't stand Corybn. I think he'd make a terrible PM. But there are no good options here. In the context of democracy, being a grown-up means voting tactically to keep out the worst option, even if that means voting in the 2nd worst option. It's not rocket science. A small last chance to stop Brexit.

Mistigri
We will know the validity of the polls after the event.
Trumpian is pretending they said something they did not.

My concern is that the polls are getting a huge amount of press attention
and combined with the anarchy on Social media advertising
may result in suppressed voting eg the FB ads before the US Presidential election encouraging blacks not to vote

This GE will decide the path of Brexit
it is thus critical that those most affected - the young - are encouraged to make their voices heard
not discouraged

Thank you @yolofish . Not upset. Exasperated by people insisting I must vote Labour. When there are clear and obvious reasons not to. Similarly Tory. Similarly Lib Dem and a Green.

Well on absolutely no evidence bar my gut feeling that the polls show the opposite of what’s really happening, I predict a small working majority for Labour. I might go and put a bet on (last time I did this it didn’t go well).

A decent Labour leader would be the answer to getting the Tories out.

Like Milliband? Maybe the voters should take responsibility. Don't like Corbyn/Labour? Fine but the answer to that shouldn't automatically be to vote for a party that has fucked the country up for a decade. Or not to vote at all.

I don't get the ballot spoiling. People on WM threads are probably more politcally aware than most. Posters cover the politcal spectrum but I think where there is consensus is a fear about the future, about the NHS etc. People have been candid in their own personal circumstances and experiences. If after reading the WM threads the only conclusion is a spoilt ballot then I don't know why you waste your time on a politcs thread.

I'll be voting on a number of issues, fully aware that EU citizens don't have the luxury of voting. This is the most important GE of my lifetime, to me spoiling a ballot is akin to burning a £50 note in front of a homeless person. Thats just my opinion.

Polling isn't an exact science, and sampling/weighting choices can and should be critiqued, but using statistical methods to make forecasts isn't "finger in the air".

You say that, but I know a few commissioned surveys that were completed in a pub with made up answers when I was a student. I haev absolutely no reason to believe that still doesn't happen at times.

And what do you do, in an anonymous survey, if you do find a result so outre that it blows any underlying assumptions apart ? Do you reject it as being flawed ?

I notice we are also assuming as a minimum that people are answering any polls honestly. For some reason Boaty McBoatface keeps ringing in the back of my head this may not be a good idea.

We will know the validity of the polls after the event.

Totally agree.

"Trumpian" is criticising something done in good faith because you don't understand the method and you don't like the result.

But you can certainly critique sampling and weighting methods. There was a good post on the LSE Brexit blog about why and how samples might not be representative.

I still think it's not much of a hook on which to hang a hat, but I would love to be proved wrong.

Like Cooper. Like Benn. For a start.
And if more people voted Tory in the Milliband. election such that the Tories got more seats, that's their call. And more people voted Brexit. That's their call.
Or are you saying you know better than people who voted Leave and/or Tory?

Listening: blog post here. If samples are leave biased then they are probably Tory biased to. We will know more in three weeks.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2019/10/29/long-read-are-opinion-polls-pro-leave-biased/

"If after reading the WM threads the only conclusion is a spoilt ballot then I don't know why you waste your time on a politcs thread." You really don't get it, do you.
I won't give my precious vote to any of the fuckers . And they don't get to chase me away with their fuckwittery.
I'm just one vote. Why do you care?

borntobequiet
Well on absolutely no evidence bar my gut feeling that the polls show the opposite of what’s really happening, I predict a small working majority for Labour. I might go and put a bet on (last time I did this it didn’t go well).

I have always felt that putting a bet on what you don't want to happen is a way of very slightly lessening the blow if what you want doesn't happen.

"Yes, we are now going to go to hell in a handcart because Boris is going to be PM for five years and Brexit will be a complete clusterfuck, but at least I can afford to drown my sorrows this evening."

Corbyn isn't the problem. The media which are allowed free rein to demonise him without oversight are.

Change Corbyn, and the next leader will face the same media.

And the next.

Michael Foot wasn't "unelectable". It was the media of the day that made him so.

That's not to say Corbyn is the messiah rather than a mediocre political party leader. But he's not the devil incarnate. And you know something ? If I had a family emergency, and could only call on Corbyn or Johnson to come over and babysit whilst I had to rush to A&E, I know who I'd call. And it's not Boris.