Westminstenders: Manifesto or Bust?

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party aren't doing one.

The Labour Party apparently can't afford theirs.

The Conservatives will just lie anyway.

And the LDs got upstaged by Prince Andrew's resignation from royal duties for being a fuckwit.

3 weeks to go...

I think she would @TheABC . And vice versa.

WASPI women are of the age demographic that should be majority Tory

Should be but in reality probably aren’t. We remember Thatcher vividly. We’re not stupid, we know that the deal we accepted as fair with plenty of notice from a moderate Tory government in 1995 was replaced with one that really shafted us by the austerity Tory government. We also saw Johnson telling us we’re bottom of the pile in his spaffathon.

Is Nation of Islam still around?

I think they decided a low profile was a good idea after 9/11.

Judging by my papers today, Johnson is spending a lot of time hanging out with women far older than the WASPIs : safer territory perhaps.

And to lighten the tone in a deeply childish manner

Sturgeon is talking about scrapping Trident: if you excuse the pun, that is a direct shot across the bows at Swinson, whose constituency has been blighted by nuclear naval bases for generations now. I really think she will lose her seat.. not really sure how she even claimed it, other than the fairly high proportion of English people who live there.

Apologies, just looked it up : those constituencies are a bit confusing these days. Hers stops short of the bases. that said, they still hate Trident.

Karl McCartney, Tory candidate for Lincoln (and MP 2010-2017) is in trouble for islamophobic posts on social media. (Prediction: nothing will happen to him and the racist burghers of Lincoln will vote him back in).

My favourite bit of the story:

"The revelations come five years after Mr McCartney claimed his account had been hacked after it was revealed his favourite pics included bondage images."

(Nowt wrong with liking kinky pics as long as they are consensual but don't tell porkies about it!)

Worrying about the polls .....
I read an article in the Economist today about the Grimsby Survation poll and I'm starting to have rather a big problem with the methodology.

They representatively select 1% of the constituency electorate - around 670 people -
and ask them a question
around 1/3 then answer with don't know or not telling
so they now have a self selected sample of 0.6% of the electorate
from whose answers they make extravagant predictions about the behaviour of thousands of people.

If the remaining 430 people are not a proper cross section (eg predominantly old or male) the poll results are utterly meaningless

I am still utterly unsure about what will happen in a couple of weeks
but I am certain that polling is leading us down a rabbit hole

Trident is the ultimate male fantasy. Fuck all use to the country, but makes sad men feel as if they have something to brag about.

And following the recent revelations about the impotence of the Monarchy, I seriously doubt it is as "independent" as we've been told for decades. Especially as it's owners know the UK hasn't a hope in hell of restarting the research and development needed to actually own our own deterrent.

If the remaining 430 people are not a proper cross section (eg predominantly old or male) the poll results are utterly meaningless

This is why you weight.

But there is certainly a concern that weighting in itself causes issues, because it can overemphasise the opinions of people in particular demographic segments. If those people have atypical views for their segment then your polling will be wrong. It's the "black Trump voter" problem - an individual selected because of colour/ class but with highly atypical views that caused noticeable poll movements over time, depending on whether that particular voter was part of a particular panel or not.

Ermm misti , Lincoln is where my DS is . It's a Labour seat...

Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
·
14m
34 seconds in. The only time you will ever hear Jeremy Corbyn close to tears. His voice quivering & shaking with emotion, close to tears.

twitter.com/i/status/1198596447568105474

It's Labour atm piggy.

It was Tory from 2010-2017.

Tory virtually certain to get back in on current polling.

I think student vote could be very very interesting in Lincoln. DS registered there and will use his vote.

Thanks for patronising me. I have picked my battle

You’re welcome. Perhaps you can stop the lectures on why you can’t vote for anyone because of [insert reason here].

If people can go on and on about why JC is the Saviour, I am entitled to say that I'm not voting for him or anyone else.
Or does this thread now only allow Corbyn devotees to post?

Fingers crossed piggy, the Tory candidate sounds like a poison toad. Labour majority is small though and it's a leave constituency.

On the plus side there is a BXP candidate to split the leave vote.

^I am still utterly unsure about what will happen in a couple of weeks
but I am certain that polling is leading us down a rabbit hole^

Of course pollsters need us to have faith and believe in polls, or they'll be out of a job. In theory a fact that should be self evident, but in my experience a lot of people have fuck all knowledge about business basics in this country (evidence of which is an alarming number of threads on MN itself).

Previously, in the two horse and a donkey race that UK elections tended to be, they could pretty much bluff their way as being some sort of inscrutable guru that divines the truth. However it seems more and more parties have joined the fray has revealed their "methodology" as needing refinement to say the least.

I would wager that a deep scouring of various polling organisations internal file systems would reveal they have already been preparing their excuses for getting things badly wrong ....

• Unprecedented December election
• severe weather events
• distraction over royal revelations
• surge in youth vote
• depression in youth vote
• black Friday
• cyber Monday ...

and anything else that sounds vaguely in the moment.

There's also going to be a disparity between poll results published and those that aren't because they were commissioned by the parties themselves.

at work, sixth shift this week
local hospital on divert as overwhlemed so all coming here
A&E corridors lined with sick 90 year olds we don't have beds for
this is full blown winter crisis jan/feb type stuff, not november
does anyone care? is anyone listening? Feel like I'm screaming into a void

Or does this thread now only allow Corbyn devotees to post?

Isnt that what our right wing ploppers always say?

Tbh, I must admit I wouldn't spoil ballot paper but it is definitely jolly tempting round my way. Instead what they will get is a very low turn out , I expect.

mistigri
But the weighting methodology is surely little more than finger in the air as its not transparent
also
Students and young people .....
How many of the people being picked up by these polling companies joined the electoral roll in the last year ?
How many have never voted before the group Cummings identified for Brexit ?

Because f the polls are excluding the young and the mobile from their selection criteria

• and in the era of generation rent there are more and more of them

the results are failing the "duck" test

we shall see
but the MSM have a vested interest in supporting the party that loves billionaires
and the pollsters have a vested interest in getting paid to produce polls that are published ....

Or does this thread now only allow Corbyn devotees to post?

You mean Corbyn devotees like me, BCF and RTB?

Many of the people who disagree with you are either not Corbyn supporters or are not Labour voters.

I've been saying in the Brexit Arms that not all Westminsterenders are Corbyn lovers. Turns out, I was wrong.
And@squid4 , of course I can hear you. A decent Labour leader would be the answer to getting the Tories out.