Westminstenders: Manifesto or Bust?

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party aren't doing one.

The Labour Party apparently can't afford theirs.

The Conservatives will just lie anyway.

And the LDs got upstaged by Prince Andrew's resignation from royal duties for being a fuckwit.

3 weeks to go...

Haven’t had time to read the thread so apols if that’s already been covered.

I agree, oakenbeach It is astonishing and likely to significantly affect the GE result, if true and also lasting .... I'm actually dubious about such a high figure and wandering about the poll reliability

I agree.... I imagine quite a few partisan posters claiming it changed their minds to bolster the impression that their side are on the up.

@Piggywaspushed link works fine for me. Maybe google student voter.info and see if that makes a clickier link.

In fact, 26% of Lab Leavers currently backing BXP vs just 7% of Con Leavers (another 3% say they'll back UKIP). Even allowing for the fact that Con Leavers are a much bigger group, a difference this large would indeed mean BXP taking a bigger bite out of Lab than Con vote

It will depend where those seats are. In seats where Labour has huge majorities it might turn some seats marginal, but not unseat the Labour MP.

Firstly, Labour Leave voters show a much greater willingness to back the Conservatives than Conservative Remainers show to back Labour - 26% of Lab Leavers currently favour Con vs just 2% of Con Remainers backing Lab.

This I found interesting and depressing. It bears my observation that online, many Labour voters are prepared to support a Tory Brexit as long as they get Brexit. I only know 2 Leave voters in real life and both are Tories so I can’t support this with my direct personal experience.

For Katie Hopkins karma really is a bitch.

It just gives a black page . The only link that works is to register to vote. Odd.

Works on my phone!

Firstly, Labour Leave voters show a much greater willingness to back the Conservatives than Conservative Remainers show to back Labour - 26% of Lab Leavers currently favour Con vs just 2% of Con Remainers backing Lab.

I'm not surprised by this. A lot of older working class Labour support has always come from self-interest rather than a common good. So backing Leave over Labour fits with that. But much of Labour's younger and future support comes from an educated middle class who support social democratic policies (which, to be fair, will also benefit them).

I'm not surprised by this. A lot of older working class Labour support has always come from self-interest rather than a common good. So backing Leave over Labour fits with that.

I agree. There seems to be a combination of idealistic socialist anti-EU anti-neoliberalist Labour voters who simply don’t notice or want to believe the hard right Tory agenda, or are prepared to turn a blind eye to achieve the glory of Brexit. And then there are the Labour voters who are simply more self-focused and xenophobic than they are left wing.

I know I'm not the brightest but how on earth can people actually still want Brexit? Have they been sleeping under a rock these past three years?😭

Without recklessly speculating, I’m interested by this numbers idea. The Tories need an overall majority because they haven’t got any friends left to do a deal with. (DUP have had their fingers burnt surely?) So in the event they don’t get a majority, Labour are more likely to be able to find another party to ally with, even if just C&S.

Zero chance of a Labour majority? Maybe. But Corbyn doesn’t need one
To be sure of reaching Downing Street, Boris Johnson has to sprint to an overall majority: he cannot rely on help from the smaller parties. Corbyn’s winning post is in a different place.
It doesn’t matter that the psephological sage John Curtice rates Labour’s chance of winning a majority at close to zero, because Corbyn doesn’t need to win a majority. If he can just do enough to deny the Tories an overall majority, he could turn to the SNP, Plaid Cymru and others to push him across the line. He might not need to gain many seats; he might not even need the help of the Liberal Democrats. Put simply, Labour, too, has a steep and narrow path to Downing Street – steeper than the Tories’, given the polls, but smoother in the sense that while Johnson needs to win at least 321 seats to stay in No 10, Corbyn could get there with as few as 270.

Interesting...I think Sturgeon intimated last night she’d consider supporting Labour for the promise of Indyref2.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/22/labour-majority-corbyn-downing-street

FadingStar
A lot of the people who want Brexit have no concept of what it means. They just want to feel listened to.
If you read the Express and the Mail and the Sun you'll see that feeling valued is a major part of it.
They are being lied to, but do not realise that.
When Brexit happens they will blame the rich for their pain.

Hester, I entirely agree that the choice is between a Tory majority govt and a Labour minority govt (reckon chances are about 80:20 at the moment).

The problem for Corbyn is that relying on confidence and supply from other parties (there is little chance of a formal coalition) means that he will have to compromise.

Personally I think that a Corbyn government would be short-lived for this reason. Might it last long enough to find a sensible resolution to Brexit?

The one point Jo Swinson made well last night is that Brexit will not be good for Britain. We do need MSM to be more factual about this.

Thousands of young people registering to vote
Do not read too much into this. A LOT of them will be students registering a second address so that they can vote tactically
or not at all if they forget

Interesting...I think Sturgeon intimated last night she’d consider supporting Labour for the promise of Indyref2.

If by that you mean she loudly declared that she would play Corbyn like a banjo if he wanted the SNP to hoist him into government from second place, then I think that message was heard loud and clear ... by English voters

Cendrillon that should delight you. If you vote Tory you do not believe in the Union.

Scotland leaving the UK will be beneficial to the Tories.

So if I were you I would vote Labour now so you can have a Tory govt for ever more.

And top prize - the Tories get what they want and destroy the UK.

Just putting this here
www.facebook.com/JonathanPieReporter/videos/2473499126265618/

Just a reminder that around a third of the working class votes Tory: Always has. Always will. That's why Disraeli gave the vote to working men in 1867. He knew what he was doing.

Listening that's very interesting...I'm sure you're right. How i wish they would go volunteer in a shelter or crisis centre if they want to feel valued instead of their mad kamikaze approach to Brexit. Someone earlier compared Brexit to an iceberg....Leavers are the ones steering the ship towards it and shouting Faster, Faster!

I’m pretty sure that a socialist Corbyn selling out England to the SNP is sufficient electoral poison for a lot of traditionally non-Tory voters to swing our way.

And as for preserving the Union, Boris has already ruled out a second IndyRef during his premiership, whereas Sturgeon made it clear that Corbyn would have to concede one in 2020 if he wants any help from SNP MPs to get him into power...

@CendrillonSings , the deal works for the Tories too. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Boris said he would die in a ditch rather than extend Brexit beyond 31st October.
Boris said he'd lie in front of the bulldozers if ever Runway 3 was approved but missed the vote
Boris says lots of things
its sensible to ignore pretty much all of them

How is allowing a referendum vote to Scotland selling out English voters?

You are not our Masters and it's time the Tory voters remembered that.