Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Shout out to Naga Munchetty if she's on here. Good questions coming from her to Johnson. Keep them coming.

Don't worry, I am sure Johnson is doing the same for Labour leavers.

Not convinced. Tory Brexit policy has been upheld all the way along by Leaver Labour MPs happy to vote with the government to deliver Brexit.

I know very few Leave voters in real life but online many Lexiters are totally naive about the hard right agenda behind Brexit. They see Brexit as an end itself.

I don't see the court case being successful because parliament was dissolved so it's no longer possible to release it legally, which was BJ's cynical calculation.

But it does have the advantage of keep it front stage and as you say, often it's the cover up that does the most damage

Following on from our LibDem candidate whose name is "Green"

www.lep.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-chorley-candidate-changes-his-name-by-deed-poll-to-include-the-word-brexit-1-10104749

General Election 2019: Chorley candidate changes his name by deed poll to include the word 'Brexit'

(contd)

I wonder if there's any diversion to be had in trawling the candidates and parties and seeing what little curiosities can be found, nominatively ? Can't be any worse than having to listen to Boris ...

cloth ear for wooI got the electorate

Should say: cloth ear for wooing the electorate.

Tanith - my posts last night made similar points to the ones that you make - and used my own street in inner city Glasgow () as an example of a street that NTL didn't see as cost-effective to dig up to put fibre into.

I used to sell capacity (and occasionally fibre) to Cabletel/Telewest/NTL , although Energis which was then taken over by C&W was my biggest customer which was why I was made redundant when C&W took over my own company

One of the problems the UK has, is that it's just not as big as the US and you can't just cut'n'paste the "US model" to use here.

We tried that "breaking up" the energy suppliers, and are now pretty much back too whatever the market will bear (the silence from Boris on the number of smaller "energy suppliers" being bailed out is noteworthy).

same with telecoms suppliers. And water too, really.

Incidentally, why can't I change my water supplier ? What happened to all that free market bollocks that was spouted when they flogged the water companies off ? And why does everyone accept it ?

(Everyone except me, that is).

It's not like changing gas or electric changes a single pipe or cable between you and the real suppliers. So why not water too ?

In 1993 I visited a friend who moved into a new build in South Ruislip. The pavement was still unpaved.

Having just had Videotron cable South Harrow that year, I commented that it was handy they could lay the cables in the new builds.

Only there was no plan for any cable provider to work with the housebuilders and the area was scheduled for 1998 (actually got cable in 2002).

My DB emigrated to the US shortly afterwards, and cited that as one reason the UK wasn't going anywhere.

One thing I have noticed about Tories, over the years, is a collective horror that someone, somewhere might benefit from something they aren't paying for. I mean real visceral, make sure there's a sick bag near by levels of anguish and pain. I could just about stomach it, if it was consistent, and the same Tories insisted on paying their full whack in tune with their philosophy. But mysteriously they're always trying to reduce their taxes too. Sort of burning the candle at both ends, which is great as long as you can stand in the centre.

It used to be that left and right wing hypocrisies somehow cancelled each other out. But somehow we've shifted phases slightly, and now they amplify each other.

DGR Thanks for the interesting article about British CVs being shoved to the bottom of the pile. I recall you presciently made this point ages ago.

It makes perfect sense, of course, but I expect Leavers will (if they can be prevailed upon to respond at all) have a combination of: (1) anyone who leaves the Homeland is a traitor who deserves burning at the stake anyway so fuck them if they can't find a job; (2) it's the very reason why we have to Brexit, because this shows how the EU are bullying/punishing us, when in fact Brits abroad are such superior beings that all wonders should be freely offered unto us.

Has anyone seen a reliable list of where Brexit party candidates are standing? I found a list but the person shown in my constituency isn't the one who was nominated, so I suspect that is true for a lot of places.

Incidentally, why can't I change my water supplier ? What happened to all that free market bollocks that was spouted when they flogged the water companies off ? And why does everyone accept it ?

Yeah and why can’t I change my trains provider?

DGR Thanks for the interesting article about British CVs being shoved to the bottom of the pile. I recall you presciently made this point ages ago.

Agencies asking about nationality was a clue ...

Yeah and why can’t I change my trains provider?

Why not ? The "logic" of electricity and gas and telecoms supply holds good. Round these parts (although I notice it's changed these past few months) there are multiple bus operators.

They don't like it, but there a hell of a lot of socialism baked into 21st century Tory economic policy. Just they have turned the 120-degree dial that covers one third of the triangle from benefiting the workers to benefiting the shareholders. (The last 3rd - the customers - never get any benefit before the first two).

Maybe I should knock that up into a graphic ?

Prettybird I remember when they cabled Guildford High Street: every single cobble had to be carefully numbered and put back exactly as they found it. The American board simply couldn’t understand why they had to do this - “because we agreed to do it!” baffled them completely.

What I meant to emphasise is that the only way these areas stand a chance is under a Government that is prepared to invest in it, even if it isn’t particularly cost-effective.

It’s just one reason why so much is London-Centric. Private companies have been unwilling to invest in areas that are not immediately lucrative.

I see I cross posted with DGRosetti

Govia’s franchises including Southern Rail and Southeastern are the worst in the country which luckily I don’t have to use. But mine is in second place.

Southern Rail franchise doesn’t end til 2021. After which I think it will be broken up.

Will it be replaced by a more competent provider? Probably not.

It’s just one reason why so much is London-Centric

well ...

we live in a "deprived area" (thank you Gordon Brown for disappearing our stamp duty ). Had full-fibre cable when we moved in, in 2002 (Telewest became Virgin). Currently rocking a true 100Mb/s fibre connection on the cheapest possible tariff.

When they wanted to eliminate homeworking, without being explicit about it, one of the ways was to insist on a 5Mb broadband for access to the VPN. Which nearly worked, but turned out most of the board - in their countrified piles of bricks - couldn't access it either. They had to drop that idea.

Conservative gain from the Lib Dems this time:

"A fantastic @Conservatives gain from the Lib Dems in #Goodrington Byelection this evening. Jane (Cons) 892, Brexit 168, Labour 72, Green 35 and Lib Dem 641 Congratulations Cllr Barnby! at Torbay Town Hall."

Chris Leslie MP:
"Why so coy @uklabour? Why not throw in free SkyTV? Free iphones? Netflix and x-boxes all round?"

BJ on 5Live denies any calls making any promises, but Widdecombe says she was called by 'a senior official at No.10" (widely assumed to be Edward Lister) and offered a role in the negotiations.

Currently rocking a true 100Mb/s fibre

I've got a full 2Mb/s and I'm not afraid to use it

Iirc, the East Coast mainline has twice been brought back into public ownership (once because it was "given back" because it wasn't profitable and once because of breaking the franchise?) and twice returned to private ownership after being returned to profitability

So much for "private good, public bad"

I had a big argument with my dad about that once (ironically, he was a doctor working for the NHS who refused to do private medicine and I was working for ICI ): I argued with it wasn't "private good, public bad", it was to do with "good management and bad management" and you could get both in both sectors. (He actually sent me a big bunch of flowers to apologise, with the message, "Dads can be wrong too" )

I was only a year or so into my career at the time (so it must have been about 1985 ) and I have worked for a number of industries and sectors since then, both private and public sector - and I have yet to change my opinion, experiencing my worst manager in the private sector (a complete and utter bully who didn't get the best out of his staff) and good managers in the public sector (my 2nd best ever manager was in the NHS - but my best one was my 1st manager when I joined ICI as a graduate recruit. I still benefit from the ethos he imbued in me ).

Clutching at straws their Clavinova - one Tory gain, to offset against I Lab and 2 LD gains from Cons. However to even things up, I PC gain from Lab and I SNP gain from Lab.

Why don’t Labour nationalise the supermarkets as well? After all, food is essential. Oh, and let’s go for collective farming too.

We effectively nationalise all sorts of things that we take for granted.... the Fire service, ambulance service, roads, waste, street lighting etc.

None of these things have to be managed and funded by the Government, but only the most extreme libertarian would take these out of Government (or Council) control and pass the responsibility to the citizen.

The question isn’t whether we nationalise - there is consensus across society that we should at some level - but what we nationalise.

Personally I think central management and funding of broadband provision, bringing it into the remit of local authorities is worth serious consideration.

Existing private companies can still deliver the broadband (in the same way private companies maintain our roads and collect our rubbish on behalf of councils), so there’s absolutely no need to go down Labour’s proposal of nationalising its supply - an unnecessary complication in their part born of their socialist ideals. Nationalising the commissioning and funding would suffice.

In many ways it’s akin to the decision for the public provision of libraries in generations gone by. Arguably what libraries were to the C20th, broadband is for C21st.

(It was 32 years ago today ...)

Does anyone recall the BP selloff ?

Prior to that, there had been a bit of a kerfuffle about the Tory government paying a load of City firms to underwrite the sale.

The story was that this was perfectly normal practice, and the few millions spunked on underwriters was money well invested should the sale not raise as much as forecast, and the little people should frankly stop sticking their noses into their betters activities as we clearly knew fuck all about how big business worked. Leave it to the Tories.

So far so good.

Come the BP sale, and the 1987 stock market crash, and all of a sudden the underwriters are pleading with the government to postpone the sale, as it suddenly dawned on them they would actually have to honour their underwriting pledges.

api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1987/oct/29/bp-share-issue

Notice one John Smith giving Lawson a hard time.

We effectively nationalise all sorts of things that we take for granted.... the Fire service, ambulance service, roads, waste, street lighting etc.

The first fire brigades were operated by insurance companies, and only attended properties that were insured by the relevant company. Brass plaques and all that.

And local councils are really the remnants of companies formed to handle utilities. Which is why the British Gas HQ union was NALGO, after nationalisation in the 1940s (?). My team leader was the convenor, but forgot to recruit me when I started ... there was threatened strike action, and I didn't know much about picketing ...