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Brexit

Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 14/11/2019 18:39

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

OP posts:
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33
ArseDarkly · 15/11/2019 09:36

Anyone listening to Johnson on 5 Live taking listener Q's? Think they've all been instructed to address him as Prime Minister, not Boris Grin

FadingStar · 15/11/2019 09:41

More important obviously is the fact that the NHS needs a lot of investment - those statistics yesterday are surely a damning indictment of the past 9 years of austerity. How anybody can vote for a continuation of that is beyond belief.*

They vote for it AND insist the Tories are the best people to deal with it. How much evidence do these numbskulls actually need if the last nine years aren't even enough?? 😖 Meanwhile the rest of us are being swept along because of the ostriches who bury their daft heads refusing to see the balls up the Tories have made and are making! Makes me enraged.🤬

DGRossetti · 15/11/2019 09:43

Remember those Irish passports folk are still clamouring for ?

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/15/job-hunting-britons-in-eu-say-brexit-is-taking-its-toll

theguardian.com
'CVs at bottom of pile': Britons in EU say Brexit is taking its toll
Jon Henley
9-11 minutes

Past 40, and nearly five years after he arrived in Madrid, John Halliday is moving back to the UK and in with his parents. He had “nowhere else to go”, he says: Brexit had cost him his job and made other Spanish employers reluctant to hire Britons.

“Frankly, I don’t blame them,” says Halliday. “The Spanish government has moved to protect UK citizens’ rights. But businesses are way too busy to follow all this. They worry: will this person need a permit, how long will that take, what will it cost?”

The 137 companies in Madrid to which Halliday has applied since he was let go earlier this year “with real regret” by the global finance firm he was working for plainly decided “they’d rather not take the risk. And I understand them. I’d do the same.”

Across the EU, British citizens are starting to face similar difficulties. Not all: plenty have signed new contracts without a hitch. But many say that three years of confusion and doubt among EU employers about the rights of British workers after Brexit are taking their toll.
‘Nothing can fully replicate free movement’

“Brexit hasn’t happened yet and British citizens living and working in the EU are already suffering the consequences,” says Laura Shields, the spokeswoman for the British in Europe lobby group, for whom Halliday’s experience is “no surprise at all”.

For employers, “no candidate is so special that you look at a pile of CVs and say: ‘Hey, let’s take a big risk with that one,’” Shields says. “This is what ending free movement into Britain means: barriers going up for Britons wanting to work in that enormous great market on our doorsteps.”

The risk of no deal, which would leave 1.3 million British nationals in the EU – 80% of them of working age or younger – facing a postcode lottery of 27 unilateral solutions for residency rights, social security, healthcare and recognition of qualifications, has now receded until 31 January, although it will return.

Boris Johnson’s renegotiated withdrawal deal, if it is ratified, does secure basic residency and social security rights, guaranteeing the freedom to move and live within the EU during the transition period plus the right to stay when it ends, and to apply for permanent residence after five years.

But the freedom of British citizens living in one EU country to move at will within the bloc, as they can now, and the right of all those who leave the UK after Brexit to live and work in the EU at all, are subject to any future agreement – and will depend on the rules Britain applies to EU citizens coming to the UK.

“We have absolutely no idea what the regime will be like unless and until the future relationship is actually agreed,” says Shields. “Will there be visa-free working? No one knows. There’ll certainly have to be some kind of permit system. And nothing can fully replicate free movement.”

In the meantime, anecdotal evidence suggests that continuing uncertainty about the exact status of British nationals on the continent after Brexit is already prompting some European employers to steer clear. “People are being turned down because they may soon not be EU citizens,” Shields says.
‘If you have 10 CVs from around Europe, why look at a Brit?’

In Germany, Megan Thornton, who has held a succession of jobs in sales, customer service and travel consultancy since moving to Berlin in 2013, suddenly found her CV was being “completely ignored” when she started looking for a new post last year.

“Either they didn’t respond at all, or it was an instant no,” she says. “I’d never had trouble finding work in Berlin; quite the reverse. I had the right skills and experience. One company finally explained it couldn’t accept candidates who needed a work permit. I said I didn’t: I was still an EU citizen. I never heard back.”

Thornton has since applied for, and been granted, permanent residence in Germany. Straightaway, she secured a string of interviews and, last week, a new job.

A similar experience greeted a British IT expert who moved to Luxembourg in 2017 with his wife, after she was recruited to a new job there from the UK. The couple, who asked not to be named, had planned for him to spend a year at home with their young children before he started looking for work, he said.

“Quite soon after that, I was offered a great job with Euratom, the European atomic energy agency – we got to choosing the company car,” he says. “Then, overnight, they changed their mind. The recruiter told me afterwards they couldn’t get anyone to sign off on me because of the uncertainty over my future status.”

Since then, he says, things had got to the point where “we nearly gave up and went home. We’d budgeted for two salaries. I must have sent 100 CVs and got maybe five responses. I’ve now spoken to a lot of people, a lot of agencies, and the general perception is: if you have 10 CVs from around Europe, why look at a Brit?”

This simply reflects “a wish to avoid a hassle and a risk you don’t need”, he says. “Firms here are used to hiring Japanese employees. They know the rules. But Brits are now an unknown. If you’re an Italian hiring here, you read a headline, hear something on the radio … You don’t have the time or the inclination. You play safe.”
‘British contractors are at the bottom of the pile’

Daniel Hibbs-Woodings has encountered the same difficulty. A highly qualified and experienced social housing professional who had previously studied and lived in Germany, he followed his German partner to Cologne in February.

“Property management jobs are plentiful here,” Hibbs-Woodings says. “I sent off 50 applications and got no replies. One filed online was rejected within 29 minutes. I knew I was instantly employable for all these jobs. I was stumped.”

Then he asked a recruitment agency to put him forward. Stripped of personal details such as name and nationality, his anonymised candidacy attracted instant interest from a number of employers. Once they had seen his full CV, however, none subsequently followed through.
Chris Williams
Chris Williams, a technical contractor based in Spain, was told that no UK contractors would be considered ‘until Brexit has been finalised’. Photograph: Supplied

“The harsh reality is that if employers have a choice, most will not go for someone with an entirely uncertain visa status,” says Hibbs-Woodings, who finally found a job outside his field for which he is substantially overqualified. “It could be a problem for many – you can only apply for permanent residence in Germany after five years.”

The difficulties for contractors working across several European countries are even more complex. Chris Williams, a senior independent technical contractor based in Spain, is currently working for Airbus on a major international project to install new military communications equipment in Nato bases across Europe.

He accepted the work after being told flatly by Galileo, the European global satellite navigation system, that no UK contractors would be considered “until Brexit has been finalised and we know exactly what the new rules are. And that applies to some extent all over: British contractors are at the bottom of the pile.”

Williams has already had to complete different formalities in Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium to be granted a temporary right to continue functioning as a provider of cross-border services. Next year, when he will be working in many more counties, he has no idea what the situation will be.

“My contract is with Airbus France, and under French contract law it is my responsibility to be aware of and comply with all the rules and regulations for third-country nationals working in EU countries,” he says. “It’s very hard indeed to work out exactly what I’m going to have to do.”
‘No one knows whether Brexit will be a problem’

In France, Lily Hall, an office manager for a ski school, is increasingly concerned about work after Brexit. She moved to France with her parents in 1997, aged four, and for the past six years has been a seasonal employee with French companies contracted by British tour operators to look after their clients in Val d’Isère.

“French employers are now seriously asking about whether Brexit will be a problem, and asking for papers,” she says. “I tell them no, but the truth is no one knows. My application for citizenship has been turned down once already because as a seasonal worker, I don’t have a permanent address in Savoie, where I work.”

Back in Madrid, Halliday said he and five other British nationals working for the same multinational were let go “because it was a highly time-sensitive project, running to a very tight schedule, and we represented a potential issue they could not afford”.

Hoping some Brexit clarity would emerge, he and his Spanish partner paid three months’ rent upfront to extend the lease on their flat to mid-October. “Of course, it didn’t,” he says. “And paying the rent in advance pretty much cleared us out. We’re going back to our parents’ to sit out the next few months.”

Some names have been changed or abbreviated

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/11/2019 09:44

Why should people grow stuff if they aren't going to get paid for it. Growing food is hard back breaking work.

Oh yeah I forgot the public sector doesnt get paid Hmm

Eyewhisker · 15/11/2019 09:45

Just - yes, there is an argument about nobody should profit from basic human need. And communism was tried in Russia, China, Eastern Europe, Cuba and did not work. The people were poorer and there was no incentive to innovate or make better products- why bother when you all got the same?

I was attracted to socialist ideas until I spent a summer on a Kibbutz in Israel. After a few weeks it was apparent that most of the work was done by a small handful of people and the rest just took advantage. Why work harder for your family if no matter what you do you get the same as the others?

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/11/2019 09:46

Why should people grow stuff if they aren't going to get paid for it. Growing food is hard back breaking work.

Its not the workers that financially see the benefit of their work as farmers will tell you how supermarkets drive down their prices to increase their own profit but unfortunately they arent talking about making food free

prettybird · 15/11/2019 09:47

I think Oakenbeach's idea is feasible and more realistic: dividing the country into zones and having telcos bidding to provide the service (effectively what happens at the moment when certain rural areas get EU Sad funding to improve broadband coverage). My old company won a number of such projects.

What is required is more of such projects to ensure truly national coverage.

I also note that John McDonnell has widened the nationalisation that he is proposing to Sky and Virgin and not just Openreach. Obviously someone has had words Wink

I can see the thinking behind what they're proposing because of government's (of all colours) and a growing number of other institutions' insistence that services are either delivered or accessed digitally.

bellinisurge · 15/11/2019 09:48

Lovely @JustAnotherPoster00 . Whose land is it grown on. Who distributes it to the shops.
I entirely agree that supermarkets take the piss and no one can afford to shop local. You don't solve that by collectivisation and free food for all.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 15/11/2019 09:49

Its not being talked about bellini so meh who cares

sunglasses123 · 15/11/2019 09:53

They won’t... I agree that they need to be reviewed re their tax but to think they will just IMMEDIATELY start paying is just bonkers. Free full fibre is top of the range BB and think of the poor person up the dirt track in the middle of nowhere who demands this service. It will involve digging up roads, going across fields for potentially one user.

bellinisurge · 15/11/2019 09:53

Anyone would thank that you were throwing around unrealistic ideas that don't bear much scrutiny. Wink

Motheroffourdragons · 15/11/2019 09:55

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

MockersthefeMANist · 15/11/2019 09:56

The person out in the sticks miles from the nearest cable would be better served with a 5G wireless connection.

It never does for politicians to specify a current technology like this. The French spent grillions on cennecting everyone up to a minitel terminal, makes an Amstrad email phone look like a Macbook Pro.

Mistigri · 15/11/2019 09:56

Peter Oborne (Daily Mail and Telegraph journo with a long standing interest in Middle Eastern politics) writing about islamophobia in the Tory party:

www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/boris-johnson-incapable-tory-party-islamophobia-problem

"A YouGov poll earlier this year unveiled the chilling finding that two thirds of Tory members believe parts of Britain operate under sharia law. YouGov adds that almost half of Tories believed in the myth of no-go zones where “non-Muslims are not able to enter” while 39 percent thought Islamist terror attacks “reflected widespread hostility to Britain among the Muslim community”.

With Islamophobia going this deep in the Tory Party, it’s no surprise that respected figures, like former chairman Sayeeda Warsi say that the problem is institutional. Yet, last week Health Secretary Matthew Hancock patronised her by saying "there are others who take a more balanced view”.

This comment shows the scale of the problem. Just imagine the outrage if a member of Corbyn’s senior team had dismissed complaints about antisemitism by a Jewish Labour politician in this way."

ArseDarkly · 15/11/2019 10:02

5 Live interviewer missed a perfect opportunity to ask him why the Russia dossier hasn't been published Hmm

Other than that, he didn't answer anything properly but came across well, relaxed and not too much blethering. I cringed at everybody being forced to call him 'Prime Minister'.

Eyewhisker · 15/11/2019 10:06

Mother - agree that something needs to change in the taxation of the likes of Apple, Amazon, Google etc. This is a separate issue from nationalising our own industries and then giving things away for free.

Why not tax google and spend the money on education or the NHS?

sunglasses123 · 15/11/2019 10:07

So with regard to the tax havens. Are you going to have a worldwide agreement with every single country?? There will always be some country who will offer a haven.

Just like some people who don’t want to work more than 16 hours because it will effect their benefits or who pretend to be a single parent but have a long time partner. It won’t be able to be fixed and of course if we all disapprove of Amazon, Google etc. Just don’t do business with them.

Oh wait.....

Eyewhisker · 15/11/2019 10:11

Most of the proper tax havens are British overseas territories - Jersey, Cayman Islands etc. Britain could sort it out if it had the political will.

Taxation of multinationals though is best done internationally - such as the EU level. Shame we’re leaving

sunglasses123 · 15/11/2019 10:12

And it isn’t fair that Amazon and Google don’t pay their share but honestly expecting them to cough up quickly is nonsense. The only way the Amazons and their like will do anything quickly is if they can pass the tax onto us.

Or we just don’t use Amazon and Google.

sunglasses123 · 15/11/2019 10:16

There was plenty of time for the EU to implement this. Shame they didn’t!

TatianaLarina · 15/11/2019 10:17

It’s as if Labour is intentionally dissuading floating Tory Remainers from voting for them by shows of batshit incompentence.

TheABC · 15/11/2019 10:19

I can't get too excited about the frothing on Labour's broadband idea simply because they will need a majority to enact it. I do think prioritizing a reliable network across the country is essential: it's a question of how we organise and pay for it.

I am waiting with interest to hear about the Russian dossier's court case. I am beginning to think Johnson will regret sitting on it (it's not the revelations but the cover up that hurts you). Two weeks ago, it could have been absorbed and then forgotten. If it gets released now, he risks it dominating the news cycle just before people vote.

TheABC · 15/11/2019 10:22

It’s as if Labour is intentionally dissuading floating Tory Remainers from voting for them by shows of batshit incompentence.

Don't worry, I am sure Johnson is doing the same for Labour leavers.

TatianaLarina · 15/11/2019 10:25

I’m not even against the principle of free or subsided broadband for those on benefits including pensioners. Due to the number of services primarily delivered online now. Now idea how that would work in practice.

£30 a month may not seem like that much but on Jobseekers it would be a luxury.

But it’s a question of how you sell it. Labour currently have a completely cloth ear for wooI got the electorate, currently they’re simply frightening people.

Tanith · 15/11/2019 10:27

I think Oakenbeach's idea is feasible and more realistic: dividing the country into zones and having telcos bidding to provide the service (effectively what happens at the moment when certain rural areas get EU sad funding to improve broadband coverage). My old company won a number of such projects.

What is required is more of such projects to ensure truly national coverage.

I worked in the IT dept of Cabletel when it first started up - one of the very early Telcos that was eventually amalgamated into NTL and then rescued by Virgin. I continued to work with them throughout that time.
Franchised areas is how it was done originally.
Gradually, Cabletel/NTL bought out or amalgamated with the rest - Telewest, BellCable Media etc. - to form one giant company that got into financial difficulties, thanks to all that spending, and was rescued by Virgin.

There were areas, mainly rural, that they agreed right at the beginning were never going to be cabled because it wasn’t cost effective. A private company has to satisfy its investors.
A publicly owned, or Government controlled, company can disregard this to some extent and justify it as meeting the needs of the people.
Their priorities are different.

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