Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Rural houses will be the most tricky to install. The cost will be eye watering and then that twat McDonnell will ask people to ‘pay a little bit’.

I have worked with local authorities for many years and honestly I wouldn’t trust a lot of them to cut my toenails. Meetings about very little, people running little cottage industries to justify their roles and it’s your money they are wasting.

Why don't these Brexit Party candidates show evidence that the Tory party has been trying to bribe them ? Just seems odd to me that they aren't, maybe they are waiting for the right moment

I don’t really care if they can or not I’m happy for BXP to fling around unsubstantiated accusations about the Tories.

"I am waiting with interest to hear about the Russian dossier's court case."

ABC - sorry I'm struggling to keep up - when is this going to happen?

Rural houses will be the most tricky to install. The cost will be eye watering and then that twat McDonnell will ask people to ‘pay a little bit’.

Which does make sense when your house has a different postcode to your stables.

But again, we return to this visceral horror Tories (I wonder if they are more first or only children than statistics would suggest ) have of even a hint that they might be paying for something that somebody else might benefit from. Even in print - on a casual forum like this - it's possible to discern a note of hysterical panic from some posters when you suggest the notion of sharing costs. You can tell it's hysterical, because it then prompts some pretty low-energy thinking that some might call simplistic.

www.rte.ie/amp/1090951/

NI constituencies. Easier to get your head around as there are so few.

Just to spice things up ...

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
·
32m
South Korea’s incredible fibre broadband success of 97% coverage...

• state coordinated
• state planned
• not state owned companies
• super competitive market
• mostly privately funded

South Korea’s incredible fibre broadband success of 97% coverage

You will never persuade a Tory by citing foreigners, unless they are white and speak English.

Kieran Andrews
@KieranPAndrews
·
16m
Minister who called ⁦
@jeremycorbyn
⁩ a terrorist sympathiser and threat to national security during Glasgow campaign visit is suspended by ⁦
@churchscotland

Imagine 97% coverage, and the 3% who cant have it, I'm sure finding and using an actually funded library service will be much easier under Labour

"There was plenty of time for the EU to implement this. Shame they didn’t!"

Guess which country has been at the forefront of blocking such laws
Blocking and dragging every discussion and decision

Finally the laws come into practice, despite all the UK govt efforts
.... then guess what .... Brexit !

Britain Elects
@britainelects
St Mary's (Powys) result:

LAB: 37.4% (+16.3)
CON: 26.5% (-14.9)
PC: 14.1% (+14.1)
LDEM: 11.1% (-16.3)
IND: 11.0% (+11.0)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

No GRN (-10.2) as prev.

I love DGR's posts about Tories becoming hysterical at the thought of people getting something for nothing.

Apart from tax incentives, of course...

Down with The Poor! How very dare they want their ragamuffin children to have free school meals (or anything else, for that matter).

The BXP candidate for Warrington North appears to be a Nigerian lady from High Wycombe. That's bound to woo the lads in the pub away from Labour.

Again, I agree with Oakenbeach's post of 11.45.

Rural houses will be the most tricky to install. The cost will be eye watering

I expect the same was said when rural houses were provided with running water and electricity connections.

Rural houses will be the most tricky to install. The cost will be eye watering

Besides, the Tory Government is already paying millions to link rural areas to broadband where the market is unable to deliver.

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Jeremy Corbyn: “our manifesto is going to knock your socks off...but here’s a little taster, we are going to give free broadband for everybody...
once it’s up and running,
instead of you forking out every month, we’ll tax the big technology companies fairly.” #GE2019

Notable Corbyn is couching all this in terms of “taking control”
< well, it worked before for Leavers ! >

The policy is interesting.
But the terms in which Corbyn is selling it is more interesting still.

Emphasis almost less on the retail offer, than as an example of their critique of Conservative political economy -in hoc to tech barons,
free market unable to provide infrastructure.

Just watched the BBC's election item from Aberdeen (or more accurately, Banff & Buchan, which is a marginal Conservative/SNP constituency). They didn't interview a single person under 40 (maybe even 50, if I'm generous and they looked young for their age )

Frances Ryan
@DrFrancesRyan
·
3m
The language being used about Labour is increasingly telling. Policies that speak of providing people with more beyond the meagre scraps permitted are greeted with genuine dismay or even fury by those that already have so much.

Clutching at straws their Clavinova - one Tory gain, to offset against I Lab and 2 LD gains from Cons.

Not really, the turnout in Tunbridge Wells appears to be 26% - the Women's Equality Party and The Tunbridge Wells Alliance both beat Labour. St Mary's (Powys) is Jane Dodd's constituency (I think) - the Lib Dems came 4th.

Emma Dent Coad
@emmadentcoad
·
4m
So we had our first threat today as a result of this lie
@SamGyimah
. According to an anonymous voicemail I'm about to be arrested and charged. Some of my volunteers are afraid for my safety. Please stop this now.

tribunemag.co.uk/2019/11/debunking-the-grenfell-lies

But will any Tory supporters care about his lies / believe any corrections ?

Only those who already have serious doubts and are considering their vote carefully

Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn

Boris’s most surprising fail in an extensive BBC broadcast round this morning:

thinking the proportion of EU and non-EU net immigration is 50/50.

It’s not, and hasn’t been for some years

Actually 20/80 (EU 59,000, non-EU 219,000).

< no, that's not a "surprising fail";
It's a deliberate lie to cynically wind up a particular section of the public, to get their votes
Copying Trump's big lies about immigrants - few people who believe them, will ever accept the facts afterwards.
In fact, continuing the Leave campaign tactics >

The language being used about Labour is increasingly telling. Policies that speak of providing people with more beyond the meagre scraps permitted are greeted with genuine dismay or even fury by those that already have so much.

It could be that. Or it could be that the reality of Labour’s far-left economic policy is becoming so blatant that no one can pretend it’s “moderate” any more.

And broadband nationalisation is now “just a taster” of what’s coming in the manifesto? What’s the main course? Full communism?