Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

I think we all know that council elections are rather meaningless for a GE but this was yesterday and this was TUNBRIDGE WELLS.

Culverden (Tunbridge Wells) result:

LDEM: 46.7% (+33.5)
CON: 24.9% (-19.1)
WEP: 10.2% (+10.2)
TWA: 9.5% (+9.5)
LAB: 5.2% (-14.3)
GRN: 3.5% (-7.5)

Greg Clark might feel a bit less comfortable about his re-election prospects this morning.

This is one of the "disputed" constituencies on the tactical voting websites btw.

Still waiting for my free trampoline.

Also (this is Rory Stewart's old constituency):

Shap (Eden) result:

LDEM: 48.5% (+17.3)
CON: 33.8% (-17.4)
PCF: 17.7% (+0.1)

And some good local election results for the SNP last night too.

And finally

Rhos (Neath Port Talbot) result:

PC: 53.9% (+23.1)
CON: 24.3% (+0.8)
LAB: 21.8% (-23.9)

Plaid Cymru gain from Labour.

""Like a bin bag of custard on top of you"" - hmm..many other things much worser.

Off to a food and finance justice conference today.

No doubt I will hear first hand of some of those deaths oakenbeach is so blase about.

My sister, who lives in Australia, has already sent her postal vote.
How is that possible when the candidates list was only finalised 1600 yesterday - she couldn't have received the ballot?

I read about the 120,000 deaths since austerity last night in a book.

I'll check it for source when I get back...

Broadband - sounds like a good policy to suggest and the price tag is achievable with bond issues. And it isn't nationalisation of BT as a group. It's attractive, achievable and reasonable.
Obvs the folk making gazillions out of the GBP in techy stuff will hate it, and mobilise as much misinformation as is humanly possible.

pmk

Sebastian Payne@SebastianePayne
Spent a long bit lovely day on the stump in Beaconsfield - one of the most fascinating battles of #GE2019. Most struck by at least four punters on the door step casually talking about an “oven ready Brexit deal”.

Campaign cutting through...

Steven Swinford@steven_swinford
John McDonnell suggests Labour could nationalise Virgin, Sky, TalkTalk

‘We will come to an agreement

‘If necessary they can come within the ambit of British broadband itself’

@Random18 rural SW Midlands - managed to get to work this morning avoiding most floods by taking 20 mile detour...

Haven't caught up with the new thread...
Did anyone see Naga Manchetty interview BJ on BBC Breakfast earlier ? Thought she did well

I like the idea of at least affordable, if not free, fast broadband. (In fact paying a small price might make people value it more.) Given governments of all hues now require so much to be done online, why not? And it would be very good for farmers, small businesses and start ups in remote areas.

My sister, who lives in Australia, has already sent her postal vote.

Who said that? I can't see it. Either someone trolling or just confusing the proxy vote form with a postal vote.

Cendrillon If only there were a way for only those people gullible enough to vote for such taxes to be liable to pay them...

You seem genuinely angry at the prospect of paying even a tiny bit more tax in exchange for (eg) a better NHS. I would happily pay more tax for this and I earn below the average wage. I don't think I'm "gullible", neither do I have any choice about paying my taxes, as I'm on PAYE, while you seem to be suggesting that tax payments are optional. The way I look at it - and you will probably never understand people like me - is that we all benefit from a good NHS, we all benefit from good schools, roads in a good state of repair, better public transport etc. I would like to see more investment in social care, too, and - again - would happily pay more tax to see all elderly people recceive this, regardless of means. If I had to make a few sacrifices to see this happen, I would be happy to.

I don't expect you to be able to understand this, any more than I understand the lengths some people will go to to avoid paying their taxes.

Nationalising Openreach isn’t totally bonkers - though disproportionate and will kill Virgin Media. Giving broadband away for free is. It costs money and this just has to be recovered in another way, but how? The cost of broadband is roughly £20-30 per month per household. The vast majority of households and businesses can easily afford it. Instead, taxes will have to rise elsewhere and ultimately the same people will still pay.

Why don’t Labour nationalise the supermarkets as well? After all, food is essential. Oh, and let’s go for collective farming too.

Bonkers, bonkers, bonkers

Venezuela here we come

Isn't the point of nationalisation the economy of scale? I'm probably talking out of my arse but if you have, say 20 million households paying collectively through taxes for a nationalised service then it is cheaper for those households than it would be in the current 20m private customers scenario.

Why don’t Labour nationalise the supermarkets as well? After all, food is essential. Oh, and let’s go for collective farming too.

There is an argument to be made on why should people be allowed to make financial profit from basic human need food, water, health, housing and in todays society telecomms could be considered a basic human need

"I like the idea of at least affordable, if not free, fast broadband"
Who doesn't? However, I imagine businesses want a return on their technological investment and research and development people want proper funding to create new business opportunities.
Childish pipe dream offers of free broadband for all is just showing them up.

Does that idiot really think that Amazon, Google and the like just immediately get their chequebooks out?

Why should broadband be free. As a previous poster says, where does it stop. Free food, free heating...

I honestly think that Comrade Corbyn is trying to kickstart some social experiment.

The other thing to bear in mind is that the higher rate taxpayers and their like will look to move out of the UK and they are exactly the people who will have the ability to do it. As 30% of tax revenues is paid by a very small element what will happen then? It will then trickle down and down and down.

Does that idiot really think that Amazon, Google and the like just immediately get their chequebooks out?

Of course they will, they make enough profit in this country

"There is an argument to be made on why should people be allowed to make financial profit from basic human need food, water, health, housing and in todays society telecomms could be considered a basic human need"
Why should people grow stuff if they aren't going to get paid for it. Growing food is hard back breaking work.
I'm not lining up anytime soon for my dollop of state gruel.