Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

The person making the alleged offers and hints of offers is reputed to be Sir Edward Lister, who is Chief Adviser at 10DS, which is a govt and not party position.

Oh dear...

As an aside you never know who requests the YouGov questions but some detailed recent surveying on to what extent you support or oppose the UK importing meats and dairy with higher levels of antibiotic use than currently occurs in UK & EU farming.

Not GE or Brexit, but we need a chuckle: 😂 ☔️

Guy Verhofstadt@guyverhofstadt

No comment..

Italian council is flooded immediately after rejecting measures on climate change

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html?

Veneto regional council, which is located on Venice's Grand Canal,
was flooded for the first time in its history on Tuesday night -- just after it rejected measures to combat climate changee^.

Fabian Zuleeg@FabianZuleeg (European Policy Centre, Brussels)

BBC News - General election 2019: Tories promise to cut 'immigration overall'

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/election-2019-50412772?

Translation:
we hope that the negative effect of Brexit will deter immigration, thus further aggravating the negative effect

ugh, I don't find that funny at all BCF... and australia is on fire being run by a bunch of climate change deniers... we need to wake up... and I thought we had... last couple of years... with extinction rebellion and all that... climate is the top priority in most surveys I've seen, closely followed by health.

And yet the media is still trying to tell the same narratives

but the world has changed!

What will this amount to in this upcoming election... who knows

I think there are going to be seismic shocks on dec 12 - but they could go in all sorts of directions - and what it ends up with I don't know (quite possibly the exact same seat distribution we currently have!)

Totally agree with you Squid. I am also glad you're feeling better. Like you I can chat away with people who voted differently to me in Brexit...for better or worse I feel most people were just trying to hope for a better life for themselves and their children.

But people who vote Tory when we can SEE the food banks in every town, the homeless, HCPs exhausted to the point of collapse, the mental health issues stemming from poverty and cuts....I just can't fathom it.

Apologies if I got a little feisty last night

I just get so frustrated by the continual berating of the Tories whilst accepting the best that can be said about the opposition is that they aren’t the Tories

Not GE or Brexit, but we need a chuckle

Very odd thing to find amusing. Ironic maybe but not actually funny.

One of the Tory candidates in the Local Elections back in May is married to a GP at one of the town's surgeries. He's a decent enough man, but I couldn't help but think "Why are you Tory?" He must hear at virtually first hand, the problems in the NHS.

I just get so frustrated by the continual berating of the Tories

They have a lot to be berated for. Especially now that the decent ones have been thrown out of the party.

Peregrina my friend is married to a doctor who is a member of the party! He's a complete prat.

They have a lot to be berated for. Especially now that the decent ones have been thrown out of the party.

I don’t doubt that but my point is the opposition aren’t offering anything that is looking likely to win them the GE - which in turns hands it to the Tories

I'll say it again
Since 2010 foodbank use up by 3802%

Hooo Tory voters will just shrug and tell themselves that the people using them are wasting their money on vodka and smokes and if they just learned to budget correctly there would be no need for foodbanks.

Or they say, "Isn't it a wonderful thing that society has come together to provide this" and invite themselves along to the openings of new food banks as a "good thing" to shine in the reflected glory

Yep :(

Urgh...flashbacks to the odious wanker Mogg there Prettybird.

Here are some good responses

https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2018/12/04/tory-mps-posing-food-banks-13-responses-need/

Bearbehind do you enjoy coming on threads to be as repetitive and as antagonistic as possible ? Remember you from a Glastonbury thread when people were enjoying The Cure and you kept coming on time and time again asking how could people possibly like them and that Kylie was so much better.

It’s safe to say it’s not only me that’s repetitive on these threads.

Most people are firmly entrenched in their views, which is part of the problem

And my comments are only antagonistic because they aren’t the common view

It doesn’t make them wrong

There’s clearly not much point in me posting though - let’s just see what happens on 12th December

It's possible to despise all of them. Just in case you didn't realise that was an option.

If this doesnt say it all

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺
@nicktolhurst
· 20h
++BREAKING++

English fascist activist & founder of the violent EDL movement - Tommy Robinson - formally endorses Boris Johnson as Prime Minister & the Conservative party as the right choice in the upcoming election.

It doesn't say it all. It says a lot.

No, it’s nothing to do with your views, Bear, it’s because you repeat them ad nauseum and derail with them. You’re like a terrier with a rat.

iirc last time, Labour were more active on social media, but Tories spent more on paid ads

FB ad spending so far: