Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Hi
Haven't posted for a while - work pressures.

Reading over the BB debate I'm really struck how suspicious some people are in the UK of the state owning or providing anything. If state owns any infrastructure & provides it free to all it becomes a public good - like the NHS. If done well that's a great thing. Risk is shared between the whole community & the size of the operation makes it cost efficient.

In the rest of Europe ( including lots of centre right countries) this is quite normal. Yet Corbyn is consistently portrayed as a communist.

Any example is education. Finland - no private schools allowed & yet educational achievement is much higher than in the UK. However, those who can never dream of affording it defend private education, because 'choice' is the only thing that matters.

In my view this emphasis on 'choice' above efficiency or fairness or considering the needs of the many is related to the English vision of ourselves as very special individuals.

Who would want to live in a state run by Johnson? I would pay considerably less tax but I want to live in a civilised society much more. Countries with significant equality gaps are considerably less stable, crime is higher, there's no sense of community etc (Stiglitz is good on this in The Price of Inequality).

As for those who think an economy runs like a household budget, maybe read some actual economists. Try Keynes to start with.

I find it interesting that the Tories seem to be the default political option in England.

They are forgiven almost everything, and even those who don't forgive still need major convincing in order to get them to vote Labour.

It's an addicting, Math. ☹️

Agree, and maybe even x-posted, @Driedlimes.

And YY, thecat

Why does the U.K. have to go cap in hand to the EU for money, I am sure we get back far less than we pay to them each year? If you get a lot of rain you can get floods. Rain patterns seem to have changed. Climate change I assume, so very dry summers and wet winters.

@leckford it's not 'cap in hand', as a EU member we are entitled. In the same way as if you're own home is flooded, you don't go 'cap in hand' to your insurers, do you?

'Your' obv.

Leckford whenever anyone mentions the EU budget I post this chart. It's like an automatic knee jerk response.

For historical accuracy inreturn for this statistically negligible membership fee, we used to get unrestricted access to a market on our doorstep worth $18.8 trillion of 500 million consumers.

@lonelyplanetmum
Love that chart!
@mathanxiety I think I agree with you quite regularly!

Leckford whenever anyone mentions the EU budget contributions I post this chart. It's like an automatic knee jerk response.

For historical accuracy inreturn for this statistically negligible membership fee, we used to get unrestricted access to a market on our doorstep worth $18.8 trillion of 500 million consumers.

I really believe that lib dems are more afraid of labour than tory.

The same goes for Labour... Their supporters seem to be keener to attack the LDs and JS than they do the Tories. The attitude is prevalent on here where left leaning posters can get over the fact that the LDs won’t bend the knee to Labour.

So good it posted twice. Sorry.

It always makes me laugh cynically looking at that chart. How could do many people fall for the dear ERG lot wanting to be prudent about the membership fee without realising that the real bits they want to slash long term are the big slices of the chart on the left.

The right want to slash the left iyswim.

Voting tory is aspirational math. Particularly for my parents generation, if you’ve made a bit of money then you vote Tory, it’s like buying the BMW, buying the 4 bed detached house or joining the golf club. Part of the scene. I will say that it’s a bit more mixed in my generation (generation X) and I know quite a few high earners that vote labour. Plus most of us don’t have the spare cash to join golf clubs

Rob Powell@robpowellnews

The Met says it's assessing "two allegations of electoral fraud and malpractice"

No specifics from the police but the complaints relate to allegations the Tories offered jobs to Brexit Party candidates to get them to stand aside.

Ministers and the PM have denied this.

Your continual attacks on Corbyn have kept me defending him and even started me sympathising with him

That's how I felt at the last election. How many votes would such sympathy help to pick up?

Ministers and the PM have denied this.

As Mandy Rice Davis would have said, "Well, they would, wouldn't they?"

Is that because Farage & Tice have officially reported the offers of peerages ?
Or another party reported their allegations ?

BJ / Cummings are lying or Farage & Tice are

< 🤔 Rubs chin to consider. Finds hag hair. Stops considering >

Ann Widdecombe says they offered her a role in Brexit negotiations...

inews.co.uk/news/politics/ann-widdecombe-says-downing-street-offered-her-role-in-brexit-negotiations-not-to-run-for-brexit-party-but-she-cant-be-buttered-up-1043120

The thought of Anne Widdecombe having any kind of representative role is truly depressing.
My God is that the best we can do...

Dear God
< and I may be quoting Barnier ! >

I feel a bit calmer this morning

current thoughts:

1. I find people who take polls as absolute gospel a bit strange in these chaotic times. I get a bit suspicious of people who repeat the same points over and over to be honest - they're telling a narrative - but why? eg. some of the stuff last night - had to disengage. Also the only polls that ever get reported are the tory-funded ones. Survation for example which was the most accurate one in 2017 is giving some very different results. Need to check who funds them.

1. No one much is talking about voter registration, 1.5 m in 15 days, almost entirely under 35s. Is that /will that be a significant number?

The age at which people tended to drift from labour to conservative used to be about 35 - now I understand it is about 50 or 55 (and presumably it will be never, if the tory housing policy were to continue). I certainly cannot imagine anyone under 45 voting tory... So the aging population used to counterbalance the newly registering young, but I am dubious of this now.

1. just a personal point, I find I can quite happily discuss with someone who has different brexit views to me, but I find it very hard to even talk to people who voted tory unless they are very apologetic about it, with the deaths on the streets and in care homes and in hospital. The food banks, the schools shutting on fridays. For myself, I have to just stop because it's too painful. (I don't meet tory voters in real life much here up north) And yes, the increasing debt and the increasing gap between the rich and poor, the DUP bribe, the huge amounts spenton brexit advertising - its' not as if austerity was even true, -- where is all that money?

1. John Harris's videos in the guardian are interesting and genuine has anyone seen those?

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2019/nov/15/anywhere-but-westminster-are-the-tories-losing-their-suburban-heartlands-video

1. i fully agree bashing lib dems is pointless and even though I really do not like swinson or their approach at all I think it is very important to keep the focus on the tories. I am telling everyone who votes labour this. There are obviously lib dem voters on this thread who share my fundamental beliefs and want good for the country and not just themselves/billionaires. It's pointless to draw divisions much better to draw alliances. I would think they would say the same, though the anti-corbyn pitch is pretty hysterical right now

I am not happy voting Labour this time- even though they are the party I have voted for in every election bar 1 since 1997.

I do not support all of their policies. I think this is a party who know they are not going to win an election.

BUT even if they got a majority. They are going to spend a lot if the next 4 1/2 years sorting out Brexit.

They are not going to have the opportunity to do many of the things they say.

They will need to target the areas where the Tories have done most damage 1st and there is a lot to fix.

So I don't see my vote for labour as a vote to renationalise everything.

I see my vote for Labour as a vote to get a say on Brexit again.

We've had 3 years of Tories saying 'Will of the people', '80% of the population voted for Brexit'. I was one of the 80% and invited to try and prevent a hard right wing party forcing an extreme hard Brexit through against the 'will of the people'.

A parliament lasts maximum 5 years before we have an election, Brexit is a life time.

If we are going to Brexit, we deserve to know how it will impact us, we deserve the government to ask the country what type of Brexit they actually want, and most importantly we deserve the truth.

So my vote for Labour is a vote against Tory.

The Tory party that are destroying this country.

I'm glad you feel better today squid and I know youre prob fed up of hearing it but honestly you do not get paid half enough for the job you do and continue to do and from the bottom of my heart thank you and these threads are better for having you and your perspective on here