Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

For the many not the few

Exactly - and there’s not many who can’t afford or access broadband for free.

there's a whole lot of info out there on how it is going to be paid for.

None of which actually stacks up?

Do you honestly think all broadband providers are just going to let this happen, let alone BT shareholders?

To help cheer most of us up

St Mary's (Powys) result:

LAB: 37.4% (+16.3)
CON: 26.5% (-14.9)
PC: 14.1% (+14.1)
LDEM: 11.1% (-16.3)
IND: 11.0% (+11.0)

Labour GAIN from Conservative.

No GRN (-10.2) as prev.

Exactly - and there’s not many who can’t afford or access broadband for free.

oops theres that privilege again

Do you honestly think all broadband providers are just going to let this happen, let alone BT shareholders?

Businesses and rich people should not control how a country spends

"BCF be honest I bet Tony Benn was your worst nightmare, you old centrist you lol "

If I had known then what what we would face from the Tories now
.....I would have been having totally different nightmares

I would also like to know
what have the Tories go to show for the extra £1 Trillion debt they have landed us in ?

The idea that the economy is like a household budget is absurd
However, you need to show where amounts like £1 Trillion went !

It’s nothing to do with privilege.

Free broadband is available in every high st in bars, cafes etc or on buses / trains etc

You can’t begin to argue that the majority cannot access for free or afford to pay for broadband.

The infrastructure costs of free fibre broadband for everyone are astronomical

Probably half the people under 50 could afford & obtain private healthy insurance too, if they cut back on other things

Are you Tories going to tell people they shouldn't expect free NHS care ?

Are you Tories going to tell people they shouldn't expect free NHS care ?

ODFO with your ‘you Tories’

Rely on a unelectable twat with ridiculous, unviable policies if you prefer.

Just see where it gets you on 13 December

God, I can't believe that people have been bickering on here all fucking day about a broadband policy that is aspirational but is extremely unlikely to implemented.

You're being played, just fucking scroll past!

The rural poor don't have free wifi available - they can be very isolated if they can't afford a car

Even the urban poor may be turfed out of bars etc if they can't afford to buy anything
No, the really poor don't have a couple to quid to spaff on that

Some people have great difficulty and - for them - expense, accessing wifi to e.g. apply for jobs, fill in official forms

That's not saying I agree with the policy - I'd want to see how it would be done
oak's suggestion sounds feasible, although still expensive

The problem is:
if we give free wifi to say the disabled or maybe everyone on certain benefits,
then most Tory voters would explode at people on benefits getting something else free that they don't

it’s no different in reality to a household income

Oh, god, is Andrea Leadsom on here?

"Rely on a unelectable twat "

None of us are doing that

Howver, polls strongly indicate that it is the "unelectable twat" that is the problem, not Labour policies

and there’s not many who can’t afford or access broadband for free.

Bear, you really need to open your eyes and look at the very real poverty that people experience if you think this is true. I live in a very mixed town - pockets of reasonable affluence interspersed with areas of serious deprivation, in the bottom centile in the UK.

I am currently respite fostering a lovely young girl doing her A levels - we have her 2 nights a week and she eats with us every single night because her mother literally has to choose between heating and eating. We make sure she has food to take home. This household has no Sky, no tv, nobody drinks, smokes or does drugs and phone is solely on a PAYG (or rather, pay what you can afford) basis. And this household is not a rare exception in our town.

I am horrified that you are naive enough to think otherwise.

If we had a policy of high quality free internet access in public buildings, and if these public buildings were open and accessible, then I might think that this policy was a sparkly nonsense. But in our library, the internet access is poor and heavily rationed, and the library operates short hours. The 6th form has internet access but again, it is very poor and access is limited.

Internet access is an essential these days, not a luxury. I don't think Labour's broadband policy is necessarily the best way of going about it, but demonising them for it helps no-one, and saying 'well why should I pay for something other people get free' is simply answered 'because you can'.

Not many that can’t afford broadband eh?

School governor here: broadband used to be free, now it’s £1000 per year. Even if you believe any of the politicians saying more money for schools, our costs have risen astronomically.

There is nothing to "rely" on

We have a hardright Fuckup Factory in power
and that Fuckup Factory is likely to have a majority after the GE

I'm not going to join the debate about free broadband because I think it is a waste of time.

OTOH the U.K. desperately needs some investment in communications infrastructure. It's woeful. My mum lives in south west England just outside a reasonably prosperous market town. She has crappy slow broadband and no mobile phone reception at all.

When I take the train to the U.K., I have WiFi on the train almost continuously until the channel tunnel. After that I'm lucky if I can so much as receive a text until I'm inside London. It's like you need to wind your clock back 20 years when you come out of the tunnel on the U.K. side.

There is an argument to be had about HOW you spend money on U.K. infrastructure, who pays and how the poorest communities get connected. But what isn't in any doubt is that spending on this (and most other public services) is desperately needed.

pointy That's brilliant what you are doing for that girl 💐

but bloody disgraceful that a child should have to rely on the kindness of strangers for her supper
and their internet for her studies

Pointy

Dan Bloom
@danbloom1
·
11h
Boris Johnson: 3.2% real terms health spending increase each year is “biggest increase in modern memory in the NHS”.

IFS: “UK health spending has historically grown at an average real rate of 3.6% per year, but grew by just 1.3% per year between 2009−10 and 2018−19.”

God, I can't believe that people have been bickering on here all fucking day about a broadband policy that is aspirational but is extremely unlikely to implemented.

You're being played, just fucking scroll past!

Which was exactly my point

If you think ‘I’m being played’ by this ridiculous idea then why have they done it?