Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Jesus squid thats rough

it’s no different in reality to a household income.

It really isnt bear but the Tories really sold you that for austerity and you bought it

it’s no different in reality to a household income.

This is absolutely not correct. For a start, the government controls the money supply and determines to a greater or lesser extent its own revenues.

Even royal households don't collect taxes or print money these days.

squid if you are referring to me, why would I not be a real person?

I’m asking why you think free broadband is a priority?

I don’t envy your role in the NHS for 1 second which is why I can’t see why you’d think pissing around with broadband and private schools is remotely important?

This is absolutely not correct

Yet still no one can explain why free broadband is a priority? 🤔

BJ is promising more money for things with no plan as to where the money is coming from.

Labour has a plan with this. Can anyone explain/post. I’m on my phone and can’t. It was explained on Newsnight yesterday. Yes it’s a bit mad maybe. But it’s an idea and will probably never happen as it can get voted down - same as Brexit.

BJ has come up with nothing creative/ new/ interesting. There are no solutions to any problems. It’s refreshing at least to hear that some of our leaders are capable of thinking outside the Brexit box.

Work is absolute carnage
Lots of deaths
Two doctors crying on me today, one young female one older male

You're really at the sharp end and tbh I'm not sure how you get up every morning and do this all over again :(

Oh @squid4, I wish I could put a glass of wine in your hand, serve you a hot dinner and run you a bath. We really don’t deserve your dedication when we persist in treating you all so badly.

You cant figure out all by yourself what stable, reliable, high speed broadband could mean to the 85% of people in this country who dont have it?

Your privilege is showing

This is absolutely not correct. For a start, the government controls the money supply and determines to a greater or lesser extent its own revenues.

I often hear this argument from the Left. If it’s true, why can’t we just “determine” that our revenues are now sufficient to double public spending without raising taxes? Surely it’s easy if we control the money supply, right?

Or maybe our international creditors would have a fit and our entire financial system would seize up. Nah, that couldn’t be the reality, could it?

its no different in reality to a household income oh, dear me! Yeah, it really IS different, I suggest you familiarise yourself with basic economics (micro vs macro) and then get stuck in reading proper economics. There are numerous schools of thought, but none would seriously equate a country’s economy to a household economy.
BTW, what you said upthread is “zero sum game” which is not how National economies operate.

Actually I kind of agree.

Whilst I don't dislike the policy, and actually think it could be good, I'm much more interested in what they're doing about homelessness, the NHS and making sure that a person working full time has enough money to live.

I suspect they do have policies for all of the above, so will wait patiently, but 'free broadband' sounds a bit...sparkly.

Having said that, if that's what gets the attention of the people...

There you go Bear, you got any idea where its all gone because the poor didnt get it

Jay Goodall🌷
@Jayrgoodall
·
9m
Another one for the doorsteps. Anyone who still thinks Labour are a ‘risk to the economy’ needs to wake up their ideas.
Quote Tweet

Ramesh Patel - They Would Rather You Ignore This
@IamalrightJack
· 4h
#bbcqt TORIES STILL WON'T ANSWER THIS

2010, Labour left a debt of £759 bn

Now 2019, debt = £1.7 Trillion

That's an increase of £1 Trillion in 9 yrs

A rise of 124% & they have nothing to show for it

So, what everyone wants to know is

WHERE'S ALL THE MONEY GONE TOO

really appreciated guys, i'm going to find some wine (kids nearly asleep) and switch off internet. thanks

Tbf, my mam can't afford broadband. I pay for a 4g contract with an ipad for her.

I do think it's a good idea. But I'm waiting for the rest of the manifesto.

And stop worrying about who is going to pay for it.

I think this is the Labour mantra.

Yes it’s a bit mad maybe. But it’s an idea and will probably never happen as it can get voted down

I love this argument from Labour supporters: “Yes our leader is insane and his policies demented, but he’ll never win enough votes to implement them so never mind and vote for him”.

Is that all you’ve got left, really? It’s quite pathetic.

I don’t doubt there’s a beneficial element to free / subsidised broad band for some.

But I can more than afford to pay for mine - why the fuck should I get it for free?

Take care squid

But I can more than afford to pay for mine - why the fuck should I get it for free?

For the many not the few

God I miss this man, I wish he could have been prime minister

twitter.com/i/status/1195415361006526465

Michael Crick
@MichaelLCrick
· 5m
Nigel Farage and Richard Tice pull out of Brexit Party election rally in Willenhall, Staffordshire tonight “to go back to London to sort out key strategic elements”, disappointed audience is told.

BCF be honest I bet Tony Benn was your worst nightmare, you old centrist you lol