Westminstenders: The Non-Pact Pact

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party and the Conservatives have agreed a trumpian pact to no deal. Led by the ERG.

They don't want you to know its a pact because the Conservatives still want One Nation Conservatives types to believe they are still One Nation Conservatives, simply because they say they are. They are not.

The Brexit Party won't stand any candidates in a Conservative held seat. But don't be surprised if there isn't more Non-Pact tactical stepping aside. This of course won't be a Pact. Cos the Brexit Party say its not. And the Conservative Party say its not.

The Liberal Democrats, Plaid and the Greens are in an electoral pact. They say they are in an electoral pact and have published a list.

Meanwhile the Labour Party isn't in a Pact. But there is still talk that in key seats that someone (either the LDs or Labour) should stand aside to try and deseat key Conservatives. This won't happen because the Lib Dems and Labour are not in a pact. And when they say they are not in a pact they aren't.

If after an election we have a hung parliament then either the Conservatives or Labour who are not in a pact and say they will never be in a pact, will try and woo someone to a kingmaker and be in government with them, probably on a supply and demand basis rather than coalition. They'll deny this but we kind of know how this goes...

Maybe if I were a state sponsored hacker wanting to hack a British political party in the run up to an election I would cover my back by making it look like an amateur job. And possibly do something much more serious and harder to detect at the same time.

And my tactical voting options here. Clear as the muddiest of muddy muds...

The difference seems to be what extent they factor in how things have changed since 2017.

Tactical.vote’s approach seems to be to recommend voting for simply whoever was in 2nd place in 2017, which isn’t very sophisticated at all and completely disregards the fact that the LDs are doing significantly better in the polls than they were two years ago. At least one of its spokespeople seems to be a left wing activist....

Re the PP Broadcast if you are anti BJ/Conservstives, don't share it or even comment on it. The reason its so cringe/Alan Patridge is because incredulous Remainers and/or Labour supporters will share it in horror and do their publicity for them...

I agree with @WhatwouldJessicaJonesdo says. Doing something shitty that people will share and laugh at gets the wretched thing spread.
Wtf? No teaspoon

I would cover my back by making it look like an amateur job.
Agree that a denial of service is often used to overwhelm servers in order to find and/or exploit a specific hole - but GCHQ do know a lot about that kind of attack. (I was surprised at spokesperson on news saying 'only a dos')

However the relative silence from the security services in general about the integrity of the referendum and elections is enough to hint at a Conservative bias - I shouldn't have to ask 'do I trust gchq' :(

Sorry to run in, I follow these threads regularly, thank you for the information, and discussion.

Can I ask a question please - all the DCs are registered to vote at home, but the youngest who is at university, is registering where she is at university. Is this allowed, or even possible? Surely they will cross check to see if she is already registered somewhere. Shall I tell her not to bother, and to come home to vote? (It's not a long journey).

Nigella it's perfectly legal to register in two places and then choose one to vote in

She is absolutely allowed to register at Uni as well as at home. She doesn't even need to decide yet where she is going to vote - as long as she doesn't vote in both places in a GE. (They can vote in both places in local elections).

It is always worth registering in both places (and arranging postal or proxy votes is required) and then deciding where the vote will have more impact.

There's a whole thread that OhYouBadBadKitten started (also in the Brexit topic) explaining about students and their need to register.

But yesterday's Guardian Education piece had an article about a couple of academics who were encouraging students to register to vote, and the abuse they were getting. They weren't advising anything illegal, or telling them how to vote, just telling them what the law was.

Yesterday's applications to register are a new high - and the big peak is still to come

Hopefully many of those 18-24 year olds will actually go out and vote.

Yes hopefully all the 18 to 24 year olds will go out and vote in such large numbers they will confound all the pundits and stop the odious wanker getting a majority.

It would be even better if they ousted the Conservative candidate in Uxbridge.

Prettybird it’s heartening all the young people registering. We need to hear their voices. I’m working on my two DCs to encourage their friends.

There are now 5 tactical websites! Is that really needed?

Look at e.g. Kensington, a tight contest. Could one site saying vote LD lose the Labour MP her seat? Could be a problem.

www.livefrombrexit.com/tacticals/

I don't think 5 sites is a problem - if they are showing something of a consensus resulting from different sampling procedures then I think it's probably a fairly reliable guide. At the moment though, it's still too soon; they are still listing the Brexit party for example. Come Friday when all the nominations are in, we will then begin to have a better idea.

At the Count at the last election, I was pleasantly surprised that our crude sampling attempts at the verification stage, did lead to a surprisingly accurate prediction of the result.

I hope too that people ignore the party spats which are all over the media, and ask who is the best MP for their constituency. Even if you dislike Swinson/Corbyn/Sturgeon/Whoever.

I'm in Tory stronghold South Cambs and all the tactical voting says Lib Dem, despite the fact that they have come 3rd in the previous 2 elections (though before that labour was very much 3rd place). I am assuming that this is based on the idea that softer tories may be more likely defect to LDs. The green candidate has stepped down though the green vote here is minimal so won't have much effect.

However, we also have the issue that both the Tory and Libdem candidates are completely new whereas the Labour candidate has stood in the past 2 elections and has increased his voting share significantly during that time to 27% in 2017, an unheard of labour percentage round here!

In short I think the tactical voting sites might be wrong. If Heidi Allen hadn't stepped down then she could have very likely pulled it off for Lib Dems.

Having said all that I haven't received any Labour election leaflets yet so maybe they're not bothering to try and get our votes . Me and DH are very inconsistent voters (apart from "anything but Tory") so we are worth canvassing!

DD is too young to vote but mentioned that there were adverts on SnapChat and other social media encouraging young people to vote. I think this will have an impact.

Some of you may have seen this live but as the BBC inexplicably chose not to re-run it I thought it worth a repost.

On the night of the referendum, we went to bed as Great Britain and woke up as Little Britain and that is a tragedy.

Mike Galsworthy
@mikegalsworthy

This man is 10/10 on fire. 🔥

BBC screws up and accidentally interviews a Remainer... then can’t stop him.

twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1194376085812760576?s=21

babooshka I love the BBC clip of that farmer! Very refreshing.

I think you’re probably right peregrina - it’s too early to say how the tacticals will play out.

A concerted effort to get students to register this time? NUS site has this on their ‘Vote’ page. It’s worth noting that no undergraduates will have been old enough to vote in the Ref.

We’re working hard with the Electoral Commission to ensure everyone is registered to vote to ensure they have their voices heard.
If you are frustrated with the way student debt is spiralling and FE funding is being cut? Fed up of this Brexit chaos we never even voted for?
Well it’s our chance to set the agenda and ensure student voices are heard in any elections.

www.nus.org.uk/en/take-action/got-5-vote/got-5-voter-registration/

The tactical vote sites are not much use.

If registered voters in any given area could log which they they were planning to vote - we could see which Remain party was most likely to oust the Tories. Not that it would be very accurate but it could help as a guide.

frankie I think the security services are civil servants so bound by the impartiality rules

www.civilservant.org.uk/ethics-impartiality.html

I love that clip SingingBabooshka.

It’s the best anti conservative political broadcast and needs to be shared.

Why is Boris aiming everything so low? Very few people have the level of intelligence he thinks they have. The ‘stupid’ people are more articulate and clear sighted than he is.

Even if you don’t agree with what this man says you have to agree that he puts forward a passionate well argued point better than our PM.

Sorry also can’t get the audacity and sheer level of insult of that Tea making video/broadcast out of my head. They must live in such an Eton bubble that they really think that’s the level of intelligence their scum voters who go to state schools have.

Agreed Dusty.

THANK YOU

I love that clip SingingBabooshka. It’s the best anti conservative political broadcast and needs to be shared.

Make G. is also spot on that it's clear the BBC only wanted to talk to Leavers. Did they get their "profile of people to approach" wrong ? Assuming all older white males are Boris groupies ? If so, an awful lot is suddenly explained.

Well Farage is claiming it's a "pact" ....

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-brexit-no-deal-boris-johnson-farage-conservatives-a9200246.html

Senior Tories admit Farage right to say no-deal Brexit 'on the table'
Rob Merrick Deputy Political Editor @Rob_Merrick
8-10 minutes

Two senior Conservatives have admitted a no-deal Brexit is “on the table”, after Nigel Farage hailed the threat as a reason for his “alliance” with Boris Johnson.

The party’s deputy chairwoman and Theresa May’s former chief of staff both acknowledged a crash-out is an option in little over a year’s time – even if the Tories win the general election and pass the Brexit deal.

Mr Farage pointed to the scenario when explaining his sudden decision to stand down Brexit Party candidates in all 317 Tory-held seats, in a significant boost to the Conservative campaign.
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Hours earlier, the prime minister had issued a video insisting he would not extend the brief post-Brexit transition period – during which the UK will abide by EU rules – beyond December 2020.

It means the UK would lose all economic and security ties with the EU unless a new complex deal can be struck in time – a prospect dismissed by trade experts as all-but impossible.

Asked if “no-deal is back on the table now”, Helen Whately, the deputy chairwoman, said: “There is always a case of what will happen if there is a walkaway.

“Of course there is always a question that you would walk away rather than have a bad deal.”

And Gavin Barwell, Ms May’s former key aide and now a Conservative peer, said: “It’s always been there until you get the whole thing finally solved – that’s always been the case.”

There are suspicions that a no-deal at the end of 2020 remains the aim of hardline Tory MPs, which arose when one said it was their reason for backing Mr Johnson’s deal.

Those hardliners, in the European Research Group, are reported to have held secret talks with Mr Farage that appeared to broker his dramatic Monday climbdown.

The timetable for a new trade deal is even shorter than the end of 2020, because an extension to the transition period must be requested by June 2020.

Incredibly, the non-binding political declaration agreed by the UK and EU says the future negotiations “will convene at a high level in June 2020” – the deadline for making that extension decision.

Brussels has already warned that the UK’s wish to diverge from standards - on workers rights and environmental and consumer protections – will put up big obstacles.

Keir Starmer, Labour’s Brexit spokesman, warned: “The Tories are now so obsessed with chasing the Brexit Party that they are prepared to implement a disastrous no deal at the end of next year.

“That would wreck the economy, put jobs at risk and damage communities across the country.”

In the interview, on the BBC’s Politics Live programme, Lord Barwell denied that what the Brexit Party leader called his “unilateral Leave alliance” with the Tories meant his party had “adopted Nigel Farage’s agenda”.

“Nigel Farage has backed down without the government shifting its position at all,” he insisted.

“There’s nothing in that video that is a change from what Boris Johnson has been saying.”

It's a shame that the NUS grammar isn't a bit better!