Westminstenders: The end of tribalism

[RedToothBrush]

There are signs that traditional party alignment might well have broken.

The Tories have split, labour are pretending they have not.

The pattern so far seems to be closely following the EU. This favours a Tory majority.

A long way to go.

Unlike Thatcher, the chances of them having a sweeping majority that lasts longer than a year is pretty slim.
Johnson's lot will win (just). They will fuck it up because....Brexit...Corbyn will resign because he is fucking hopeless. Labour may or may not see sense and aim for the centre again.
Under Thatcher there was absolutely no hope of anything. For years. Her policies decimated areas of the UK including NEngland where I live and grew up. And there wasn't a thing anyone could do about it because she faked competence better than anyone else.
There is no competence on either side just now.

@derxa - my colleague was just the most recent example. I wouldn’t even have mentioned it if it had been n=1. Although it isn’t true across the board - some are switching to Lib Dem.

I haven’t yet come across anyone who voted remain and who will admit to planning to vote Tory this time around. Not even people who are members of the Conservative party (I’m a member, so I know quite a few people in this group).

Labour may or may not see sense and aim for the centre again.

Fuck that, wheres your evidence that centrist politics have any appeal other than financially secure middle class, and theyre becoming fewer and fewer as house prices and rents increase, as wages stagnate and zero hour contracts, the gains Labour have made in attracting younger voters will be gone if we head back to the centre. Why do you feel Ed Milliband lost bellini? That was a ventrist manifesto

I haven’t yet come across anyone who voted remain and who will admit to planning to vote Tory this time around. Voting is a secret ballot. You will never know what party they voted for.

Because Milliband was shit at campaigning. He was the wrong milliband. If you think that centrism is just for posh middle class middle aged people, I assume you are too young to remember Blairite appeal. There was life before the Iraq war debacle.

I assume you are too young to remember Blairite appeal.

I didnt find it very appealing at the time, voted for him though, I'm 47 where does that figure into your agism?

Elections are not won by pandering to activists. They are won by appealing to people who have better things to do than be activists.

You voted for him @JustAnotherPoster00 . Just my point. You didn't vote for Howard or whoever it was.

He was the wrong milliband.

Another 1 from the cult of David, he couldnt even win a leadership election against a man you say was shit at campaigning so how would he have won a country wide election, how do you square that circle in your head?

PMK.

I voted for Kinnock as well, I firmly believe the words of Nye Bevan as far as Tories are concerned (I'm not calling you a tory btw I wouldnt be so insulting or callous)

@JustAnotherPoster00 vote for who you like, but I won't vote for Corbyn led Labour. And I'm inclined to vote Labour generally. So how the hell does he appeal to Tory voters. Bad news : to win an election, you need to appeal to both.

I haven’t yet come across anyone who voted remain and who will admit to planning to vote Tory this time around

Unfortunately, I have. Remain-voting friends of DW, who have always complained about how disastrous the whole idea of Brexit is, but now intend to vote Tory (as I suspect they always have) because they like their Leave-supporting local MP. I've pointed out to them that Brexit isn't a local issue and the consequences of leaving are more important than a disappointed local candidate, but I don't think it's sunk in.

Anyway, I think it's just an excuse to be able to support the Tories, as they're firmly of the Corbyn is the devil incarnate persuasion.

Brighter news on a small scale is that DW will be able to vote in this election for the first time and is firmly in the Labour camp. DS1 lives abroad and needs to get his finger out re. postal/proxy vote. Something (else) to nag him about next time on Skype . DS2 isn't really interested in politics, but is certainly naggable in the right direction.

No return to centrist Labour. An ideology that believed everyone was middle class and hung on the coat tail of Thatchrite neo liberalism.

Yeah the "wrong milliband" is another intellect free soundbite.

It is about the future of the country, there is an awful lot at stake here. You might be quite happy sticking two fingers up at the EU and leaving with no deal, but a lot of us are not.

Except we’re not leaving with No Deal, are we? The Benn Act, so widely cheered on here, gave Boris essential political cover with his own side to negotiate a new Deal and break his Oct 31 pledge. Similarly, the fetishization of “We Must Avoid No Deal At Any Cost” means that a large swathe of the public are prepared to accept Boris’ Deal, since it avoids that outcome.

If Corbyn had accepted an election in September, Boris would have had to fight on a No Deal platform and the Tories would, frankly, have been utterly fucked. As it turns out, Corbyn’s cowardice and Benn’s clever-cleverness have saved the Conservative Party. I’d be grateful to them, if it weren’t just the result of a ham-fisted attempt to ensure the opposite.

Yes, that attitude really invites me to Corbyn lead Labour

Is Blair another one who has been absolved? Despite the Iraq war and being good pals with a Republican in the White House. Some things haven't changed in British politics.

No return to centrist Labour. An ideology that believed everyone was middle class and hung on the coat tail of Thatchrite neo liberalism.

Super! Since Tony Blair - the champion of sane, centrist Labour - has been the only Labour leader to win a majority in the last 45 (!) years, here’s hoping history continues to repeat itself!

18-24-year-olds planning to vote Labour

I was on the train the other day next to (so overhearing) 2 students who were going to the Lab rally. And their conversation was littered with references to other friends who were going. Just regular looking students.

we will still be out with no deal.

This is only partly true. The Irish frontstop and the deal on citizens' rights will remain in place.

There will not be a trade deal on 1/1/20 (this is 100% certain now), only question is whether there will be a transition extension or not.

At 19, this is the first GE that ds can vote in (although he's already voted in 3 other elections ). He'll be voting SNP (Kirsty Blackman).

NEW: Radical plan for two Labour 'co-leaders' if Jeremy Corbyn loses the next election

I must admit, given the similarities between the Labour Party and the Roman Empire, this is such an obvious idea you wonder why no one ever thought of it before. Maybe it took a horse to kick someones head ?

If we leave with Boris' deal and do not sign any further deal by the end of the transition we will still be out with no deal.

If ... if... if...

The election is about what’s happening now, and that is that Boris has agreed a Deal with the EU that will move the process on without crashing out.

Whatever might happen - and I don’t actually believe Boris would want the chaos of No Deal to dominate his premiership - the Tories have a clear and effective Brexit policy that complies with “We Must Avoid No Deal At All Costs” that his opponents were screaming at him for the last two months. Contrast that with Labour’s pathetic attempt to have it both ways. Well, a lot of people - not just Tories - want to move on from this limbo, not be thrown back into it with endless renegotiations and reReferendums...