Westminstenders: The end of tribalism

[RedToothBrush]

There are signs that traditional party alignment might well have broken.

The Tories have split, labour are pretending they have not.

The pattern so far seems to be closely following the EU. This favours a Tory majority.

A long way to go.

Pmk

I feel quite emotional today on the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. I remember it very clearly; a sense of amazement and wonder at what people power can achieve.

Let’s not forget there is hope that something that huge can happen.

Sayeeda Warsi
@SayeedaWarsi
·
59m
Oh
@MattHancock

Thank you for “whitesplaining” this to me.
I’m so glad I have colleagues like you who can educate me even after my 30 years of experience of work in Race relations
“”Thousand apologies sir “ 🙄🤦🏽‍♀️
Quote Tweet

Kevin Schofield
@PolhomeEditor
· 2h
Health Secretary Matt Hancock says “others take a more balanced approach” to Islamophobia in the Tory Party than @SayeedaWarsi. Oh dear. #r4today

ayeeda Warsi
@SayeedaWarsi
2/2 Today #BorisJohnson has confirmed that there will NOT be an inquiry into #Islamophobia
Yes disappointing
Yes predictable
Yes it’s true my party don’t give a —— about racism within our own ranks
We are only anti racist to score political points
Do as we say not as we do 🤦🏽‍♀️

(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
22h
LBC: “Boris Johnson has told LBC News with flooding up and down the country, his thoughts are with those who have been affected. He says it's important for people to listen to advice from emergency services”. I thought we were all supposed to just use common sense.

Michael Rosen
@MichaelRosenYes
·
22h
[correction]
Dear Ian Austin and other Tories,
Please don’t use the Holocaust or the threat of antisemitism as a means of attracting people to the party of Windrush, the ‘hostile environment ‘ the anti-refugee truck and 10 years of austerity. Yours, Michael Rosen

I was at a talk by Philip Rycroft recently.

His assessment of probability for what he deems to be the 3 most plausible outcomes in the GE, in order:
(1) Tory majority: 55% chance, due to Brexit fatigue and the dishonest promise [sic] that a vote for BJ means a vote to "get it done", "end the agony", etc.
(2) hung Pmt, where Corbyn has to stitch together an administration with the SNP and the LD's, with in exchange a promise to SNP of IndyRef2: 30-35%
(3) hung Pmt, with Tories as minority gvmt: 10-15%

If (1) happens, then BJ will refuse IndyRef2 and in May 2021 the SNP will go into the Scottish Pmt elections on an IndyRef2 ticket. If they win those elections, which currently seems likely, then that request/demand "can hardly be refused."

Amongst people who are now realising that the Union cannot survive this and are concerned about it, there are attempts to plan for a quasi-federal system to avoid total break-up.

When asked whether he thought one possible positive outcome of all the mess might be electoral reform, he said he hoped so but that it would be a very long, slow process because things like that happen v slowly in the UK. He cited HoL reform, which has stalled forever, even though the HoL is clearly totally unfit for purpose.

He touched on the fact that he and other civil servants were prevented from planning for Brexit because Cameron (who'd learnt no lessons from IndyRef1 and led a catastrophic campaign) firmly believed he'd win, a belief reinforced by polls that research now suggests were wrong all along, as Leave was probably always ahead. He said they did try to plan as best they could in order to mitigate what they knew/know will be the worst effects.

The Tories are acting rationally in the sense that they know that their potential voters mostly don't care very much about islamophobia or are themselves actively islamophobic

Anti-semitism is much more complex for Labour, partly because it is actually a much more nuanced issue. It is politically uncontroversial to oppose Islamic nationalism and the behaviour of Islamic states; OTOH it is very easy for opposition to the behaviour of the Israeli state or support of Palestinians to be interpreted as anti-semitism or indeed to cross the line into anti-semitism.

The situation is further complicated by the extent to which anti-semitic language has penetrated politic life across the board, on both right and left, especially but not exclusively on-line. The most obvious examples are constant use of Soros as code for "rich meddling Jew" on both extremes of the political spectrum, and widespread use by both right and left of antisemitic imagery to depict opponents. Neither side shows any willingness to police this and I regularly see Soros references on social media from both sides (including sometimes on these threads).

We are one of the 60 constituencies the LibDems have targeted with the greens pact.

We have a Tory MP - who votes in alignment with the PM every time.
60% Remain but in the European elections it was 54%
In 2017, Tories had 53% of the vote.
Labour - 32%
LibDems - 10% and
Greens 2%

Above-average homeownership, lower than average social housing and higher than average people over 65. Lower than average 18-35's. Over 90% caucasian. and low unemployment rates (under 3%)

I cannot see how the pact will keep the Tories out?

It will most certainly come back Tory, although the local FB group has some fantastic debates at the moment!

*Above-average homeownership, lower than average social housing and higher than average people over 65. Lower than average 18-35's. Over 90% caucasian. and low unemployment rates (under 3%)

I cannot see how the pact will keep the Tories out?*

It'll save a deposit. On the face of it, those do not like like promising statistics for a remain alliance win even if Labour joined in.

I agree with what cat said. Honestly I don’t think all people are blind to what is going on. We are being shown people who have been fooled in the media. But I’m taking everything I read and see with a pinch of salt.

There is hope.

@thecatfromjapan can you run for office please? You’d be a great PM.
I wonder if the polls showing a Tory majority will help spur on all of the other parties and demotivate Tory campaigns and voters. I mean why bother canvassing in the dark and rain or bother going to vote in the horrible Dec weather if Boris has it in the bag? (Clinging desperate to a hint of optimism and wishful thinking)

It'll save a deposit. On the face of it, those do not look like promising statistics for a remain alliance win even if Labour joined in.

@Mistigri Exactly. So I cannot for the life of me see WHY we were targeted??

I agree with you, Nerd. Maybe if the Farage Company stand it would split the Tory vote, but there could also be potential movement from a Labour to the Remain pact candidate???

I think a lot depends on whether the BXP really are going to stand everywhere. If they’re not, I think Fatberg has it in the bag, if they contest a decent number of seats, it’s all to play for.

Let’s have some hope, though, and I also nominate cat for PM!

I am disappointed the tactical voting websites didn’t consult each other and ensure they’d give the same advice for each constituency.

Here’s some advice on what to do (mainly, Wait!)

We are five weeks from polling day. Much can change and Best For Britain is promising to update its advice as the campaign progresses. So probably the best strategy of all, for now, is that recommended by the Scientists for EU founder and prominent Remain activist Mike Galsworthy: Chillax.

If I may add my twopenn'th, these are my pleas to fellow Remainers:

1 Make sure you are registered to vote. If you are a student, register both at home and at uni. Apply for a postal vote so that you have the flexibility to vote where you wish, then cast that vote where it will have the most effect.
Tell your friends to do the same and if you have student offspring, make sure they do so.

2 Unless the Greens have a real prospect of success in your constituency, put climate change and Greta to one side this time. Yes, it's the most important thing for your future, but Brexit is the most immediate threat and this is your one chance to stop it.

3 Stop 'punishing' the Lib Dems for tuition fees and austerity; stop 'punishing' Labour for some members' anti-Semitism. However distasteful you find either, the objective is to stop Brexit and the only way to have any hope of doing that is to oust the Tories.

4 Don't fall for the Project Fear that will come from the Conservatives and their press allies on the 'danger' of Jeremy Corbyn moving into Number 10. If you want his radical agenda, vote for it. You might get lucky.

But if it scares you, remember that the chances of his leading a majority government on December 13 are remote, so the probability is that we'd end up with Corbyn Lite. (And yes, he may be a Brexiter at heart, but no, his Brexit policy is not incomprehensible. It's quite sensible, given the number of Leave-supporting Labour voters.)

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/liz-gerard-on-the-tactical-voter-1-6362565

I think that remain-voting Tories are a very interesting group in this election. I know the theory is that they’ll switch to Lib Dem, but not to Labour. However I keep coming across people in this category who say “you know what - I think I’m actually going to vote Labour.” This is exactly what one of my colleagues said yesterday (6 figure salary, son at private school, has his own gun and likes hunting, drives a Range Rover) - if these people do start switching to Labour then anything is possible.

Tough shit - I will "punish" Labour for its ongoing problem with antisemitism as long as I fucking well like.

Imagine waking up to a Conservative majority.

I and a large plurality of the electorate do, all the time. It would be bloody fantastic!

Not quite sure why everyone is panicking, since anything can happen in the next few weeks. But given both the lack of love for Labour and the encouraging polling data, I’d much rather be on my side than yours!

I was a young adult under Thatcher- you think this lot of useless dickwipes is bad?

I think that remain-voting Tories are a very interesting group in this election. I am one. I'm 'anyone but Corbyn' so that balances out your colleague.

bellini I think they are ten times worse.

And I'm a Scot..........we suffered under Thatcher too.

This is exactly what one of my colleagues said yesterday (6 figure salary, son at private school, has his own gun and likes hunting, drives a Range Rover) - if these people do start switching to Labour then anything is possible.

I’m not sure the masochist community is large enough to be an election-swinging demographic!

I'm a Catholic in NI and this lot terrify me more than Thatcher and she was Satan for nationalists.

bellini one thing that seems different to the Thatcher years is the willingness to tell barefaced lies now.

And I’m sure there are many other things.