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Brexit

Westminstenders: Dissolved.

952 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2019 19:44

Parliament has formally been dissolved. We are now officially in an election period including purdah and spending limits. Not that all the parties haven't got campaign material out already to bypass the rules, making the rules a complete farce. And the government has made some very dodgy adverts about the fund for towns, 90% of which just happen to be marginals.

The Tory Campaign has got off to an interesting start with a dead cat dog whistle against Grenfell where many well educated people lived (Inc an architect), privately owned their property and just happened to be white. And fast asleep. I'm not sure about you but I don't tend to have huge amounts of 'common sense' when I'm snoring.

Apologies have of course been made. In true Trumpian / Bannon style. But the whistle was blown and made its desired point to its target audience. Expect many more examples before we get to the end of this campaign.

Of course the same day it was made public that the government have blocked the publication of a report into Russian Electoral Interference. Which is in no way connected to the massive amount of donations the Tory Party has been receiving lately and who Boris Johnson hangs out with.

This election is all about breaking 'The Red Wall' and the Tories taking Northern seats. So everyone between Birmingham and Cumbria is going to be particularly fed up by 12th December at people from London coming out with ridiculous stereotypes, and telling them how to vote. We await Corbyn and Johnson adopting flat caps and vowels whilst drinking a pint of bitter or mild.

As usual we've had the candidate selection process throw up a few curve balls including forcing cabinet minister Alun Cairns to resign as Welsh Secretary on the day the tories launch their campaign. Its become very clear from the list of Tory MPs who aren't standing that the party has officially split and 'one nation conservatism' is merely now a slogan Johnson throws around to pretend that the hard right of the party hasn't slung out or forced out all the moderates. On the Labour side we have the usual rows at factions in local parties fighting or being really upset at a London candidate being parachuted in.

Farage isn't standing but the Brexit Party apparently is, despite calls for an electoral pact with the Tories. Whether local parties get the memo from Leave.eu and CCHQ we will find out in time. The LDs, Greens and Plaid seem to be consolidating a Remain pact in some seats but this still splits the vote with Labour which will be a problem in some areas.

Johnson is apparently standing in Uxbridge. This does leave us with the possibility he could yet lose his seat. Swinson's seat is also far from a safe one. Corbyn will likely be safe but Islington did back the LDs as the 1st Party at the Euros with the assistance of some very pissed off Labour members.

Nothing is certain about the next 6 weeks apart from the fact it will throw up some shocks and leave us all shouting at the telly at some point.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 07/11/2019 10:23

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

The “remain alliance” is big, interesting and important.
Most significant example of electoral cross party working in British politics since the SDP-Liberal alliance.

And this is rather more impressive than that.
SDP-Lib alliance was two parties, one of which was new without local organisation in many places, working with each other largely out of convenience.

This is three established parties, tapping into a bigger political movement.

Question now is, does a remain alliance add pressure on the Leave side to find some sort of arrangement?
Does Farage’s case look more urgent?

BigChocFrenzy · 07/11/2019 10:30

Mujtaba Rahman@Mij_Europe

Our UK election probabilities:

a Tory majority Govt (40%);
a Labour minority Govt (30%);
a Tory minority Govt (20%)
or deadlock (10%).

Our short-term Brexit probabilities:
Johnson’s Brexit deal (40%);
2nd Ref (30%);
another A50 extension (25%);
no deal (5%)
1/2

Do think @jeremycorbyn prospects of entering @10DowningStreet are under-priced;

@BorisJohnson has in effect gambled on winning an overall majority,
but Labour could win fewer seats than the Tories in a hung parliament and still take power.

Latest #Brexit piece 2/2

Peregrina · 07/11/2019 10:30

The Remain Alliance is good, but the cynic in me says that it's also financially beneficial. Why waste time contesting seats where you will split the vote against the party you want to get out, and run the risk of lost deposits.

ListeningQuietly · 07/11/2019 10:37

Peregrina
If avoiding lost deposits achieves the better result for the next generation , EXCELLENT

Emilyontmoor · 07/11/2019 10:38

How far has the Overton window moved when two communities that are very much important communities within British Society are calling out the two parties that are most likely to be in government on racism. This ought to be a game changer, it won’t be though will it Sad mobile.twitter.com/JewishChron/status/1192329662954901504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1192357592372326400&ref_url=file%3A%2F%2F%2Fprivate%2Fvar%2Fcontainers%2FBundle%2FApplication%2FED7402D3-0704-4FA1-93D0-2C0E294E0836%2FGLA.app%2FArticleTemplates%2F

FadingStar · 07/11/2019 10:41

Watson has done done Johnson NO favours here.

FadingStar · 07/11/2019 10:43

Urgh...Austin I mean.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 07/11/2019 10:43

For those who havent read it yet

normanfinkelstein.com/2019/02/26/that-labour-antisemitism-crisis-in-numbers/

Alsohuman · 07/11/2019 10:44

If avoiding lost deposits achieves the better result for the next generation , EXCELLENT

This times a million.

DGRossetti · 07/11/2019 10:44

Question now is, does a remain alliance add pressure on the Leave side to find some sort of arrangement? Does Farage’s case look more urgent?

It's starting to appear (through the fog) that the Tories electoral "strategy" is going to be to act as if Brexit has been delivered giving them the excuse to talk about anything but, and to take on Labour over everything non-Brexit.

If you're peddling that li n e (and I think I deserve the day off for that Grin) then you can't really simultaneously pact it up with The Brexit Company.

CendrillonSings · 07/11/2019 10:46

Ian Austin, long-time Labour MP, on Jeremy Corbyn:

I think at every opportunity he backs our country's enemies

A devastating quote, and a very brave man to tell the truth about the cult. They won’t be happy about that!

DGRossetti · 07/11/2019 10:47

Our UK election probabilities:

Polls, not predictions ....

JustAnotherPoster00 · 07/11/2019 10:47

On the Jewish Chronicle

In August 2015, dozens of prominent Jewish activists signed an open letter criticising the paper for what they viewed as its "character assassination" of Corbyn. They wrote: "Your assertion that your attack on Jeremy Corbyn is supported by 'the vast majority of British Jews' is without foundation. We do not accept that you speak on behalf of progressive Jews in this country. You speak only for Jews who support Israel, right or wrong." They continued, "There is something deeply unpleasant and dishonest about your McCarthyite guilt by association technique. Jeremy Corbyn's parliamentary record over 32 years has consistently opposed all racism including antisemitism." Signatories to the letter included Laurence Dreyfus, Selma James, Miriam Margolyes, Ilan Pappé, Michael Rosen and Avi Shlaim.[citation needed]

In August 2017, the Jewish Chronicle published a ruling by The Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO) that an article it had published earlier that year about a court case was in breach of the Editors' Code of Practice by identifying family members of the defendent. The Judge did not accept the defences of the Jewish Chronicle that the family members were prominent members of the community or that the family had been referenced in the proceedings, albeit without identifying individual members.[28]

In February 2018, The Jewish Chronicle falsely reported that Mike Sivier, a blogger and Labour Party member was a holocaust denier. IPSO upheld a complaint by Mr Sivier that the newspaper had misrepresented online comments he had made.[29]

In April 2019, the Jewish Chronicle published a ruling by IPSO that articles it had published on May 2017 and April 2018 about an author critical of Zionism contained inaccuracies regarding venue denial activity by Jewish organisations and the author's views on the relationship between Zionism and Nazi Germany and that it had failed to issue a timely correction. The Jewish Chronicle said that they had relied on comments made by the president of the Board of Deputies of British Jews.[28]

In August 2019, Interpal received an apology and damages of £50,000 after The Jewish Chronicle implied that the charity had links to terrorist activity. On 23 August the paper published the apology in full, together with an article by Ibrahim Hewitt, chair of trustees of Interpal.[30]

From wikipedia

DGRossetti · 07/11/2019 10:49

I think at every opportunity he backs our country's enemies

Our countries biggest enemy by far is a Tory party lurching to the right and destroying the political fabric of this nation. Anything external is a mere sideshow to that.

Now, who's Corbyn "backing" again ?

placemats · 07/11/2019 10:49

One the day that Johnson visits Scotland, former Conservative adviser, Bendor Grosvenor has cut ties with the Tories, saying that it's time to 'destroy' the party.

twitter.com/AngusRobertson/status/1192354825171804160

Peregrina · 07/11/2019 10:54

So a party in bed with Putin's Russia is supporting the country, is it?

CendrillonSings · 07/11/2019 10:54

Now, who's Corbyn "backing" again?

By all means, let me give you the full quote from Ian Austin, though it’s far from the full list of Corbyn’s nefarious alliances:

I think at every opportunity he backs our country's enemies, whether that's the IRA during the Troubles or calling Hamas and Hezbollah his friends, or paritying Putin when he sent hitmen to our country, to Salisbury.

This is what Labour supporters are voting for.

DGRossetti · 07/11/2019 10:55

I think there's an issue with some people trying to make criticism of Israel (which isn't a very nice country at times) some sort of synonym for "anti-semitic". Or any expression of support for a homeland for the Palestinian people. Which my dictionary would suggest is actually pro semitic. But I do try to research the meaning behind words, rather than allow them to become some sort of magic incantation to suppress discussion and debate.

It's usually a good indication there's a load of bollocks at work when asking a question is met with an accusation of something, rather than an answer ...

placemats · 07/11/2019 10:57

More on Nick Conrad - the bar has gone very low with this PPC for the Tories.

twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1191733375184330754

JustAnotherPoster00 · 07/11/2019 10:57

or paritying Putin when he sent hitmen to our country, to Salisbury.

Boris Johnson's Conservative Party has received a surge in cash from Russian donors

www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnsons-conservatives-receive-surge-in-cash-from-russians-2019-11?r=US&IR=T

DGRossetti · 07/11/2019 11:00

I think at every opportunity he backs our country's enemies, whether that's the IRA during the Troubles or calling Hamas and Hezbollah his friends, or paritying Putin when he sent hitmen to our country, to Salisbury.

Ah, so it's just one persons opinion ... not quite as persuasive now then ...

as for the allegations ... well there's a lot to unpick there. And once you start, you just can't stop which never ends well for the British government. Of any stripe.

CendrillonSings · 07/11/2019 11:00

Has that led him to defend Putin when his agents poisoned our people, like when Corbyn suggesting sending a sample off to Putin for him to test? Grin

DGRossetti · 07/11/2019 11:01

Boris Johnson's Conservative Party has received a surge in cash from Russian donors

Probably a "thank you" for burying the story so quickly.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 07/11/2019 11:01

The BBC forgets that it once reported on Ian Austin having to apologise for lying about antisemitism.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-18304089

GhostofFrankGrimes · 07/11/2019 11:02

Remarkably when I head to the polling station I'm not thinking of an organisation that gave up its guns 20 years ago I'm thinking of the people queuing at food banks and crumbling public services.