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Brexit

Westminstenders: Dissolved.

952 replies

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2019 19:44

Parliament has formally been dissolved. We are now officially in an election period including purdah and spending limits. Not that all the parties haven't got campaign material out already to bypass the rules, making the rules a complete farce. And the government has made some very dodgy adverts about the fund for towns, 90% of which just happen to be marginals.

The Tory Campaign has got off to an interesting start with a dead cat dog whistle against Grenfell where many well educated people lived (Inc an architect), privately owned their property and just happened to be white. And fast asleep. I'm not sure about you but I don't tend to have huge amounts of 'common sense' when I'm snoring.

Apologies have of course been made. In true Trumpian / Bannon style. But the whistle was blown and made its desired point to its target audience. Expect many more examples before we get to the end of this campaign.

Of course the same day it was made public that the government have blocked the publication of a report into Russian Electoral Interference. Which is in no way connected to the massive amount of donations the Tory Party has been receiving lately and who Boris Johnson hangs out with.

This election is all about breaking 'The Red Wall' and the Tories taking Northern seats. So everyone between Birmingham and Cumbria is going to be particularly fed up by 12th December at people from London coming out with ridiculous stereotypes, and telling them how to vote. We await Corbyn and Johnson adopting flat caps and vowels whilst drinking a pint of bitter or mild.

As usual we've had the candidate selection process throw up a few curve balls including forcing cabinet minister Alun Cairns to resign as Welsh Secretary on the day the tories launch their campaign. Its become very clear from the list of Tory MPs who aren't standing that the party has officially split and 'one nation conservatism' is merely now a slogan Johnson throws around to pretend that the hard right of the party hasn't slung out or forced out all the moderates. On the Labour side we have the usual rows at factions in local parties fighting or being really upset at a London candidate being parachuted in.

Farage isn't standing but the Brexit Party apparently is, despite calls for an electoral pact with the Tories. Whether local parties get the memo from Leave.eu and CCHQ we will find out in time. The LDs, Greens and Plaid seem to be consolidating a Remain pact in some seats but this still splits the vote with Labour which will be a problem in some areas.

Johnson is apparently standing in Uxbridge. This does leave us with the possibility he could yet lose his seat. Swinson's seat is also far from a safe one. Corbyn will likely be safe but Islington did back the LDs as the 1st Party at the Euros with the assistance of some very pissed off Labour members.

Nothing is certain about the next 6 weeks apart from the fact it will throw up some shocks and leave us all shouting at the telly at some point.

OP posts:
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bellinisurge · 08/11/2019 08:51

Tbe winners are not fighting among themselves as much as the "losers" @GhostofFrankGrimes . The winners are pretty much all accepting Johnson's WA. Which is obviously TM's WA but with a few different weasel words and done by a man. I don't support it but it is better than No Deal.
His mistake was not giving Parliament enough time to scrutinise it - the prorogation bollocks. If he hadn't scored an own goal with that it would have been more likely Parliament would have voted it through having had more time to look at it. Not much more. But more.

prettybird · 08/11/2019 08:51

To be fair Mother - it's not surprising that you didn't know as the MSM chose/chooses not to publicise the 2nd part of their commitment to stop Brexit - that they would support a PV if they didn't get a majority which was never going to happen anyway

Unfortunately I think Swinson will retain her seat as there are enough Conservatives and Unionists in her constituency who will vote for her to keep the SNP out. My dad will be voting SNP or rather his proxy will Wink though Grin

Mistigri · 08/11/2019 08:58

I don't support it but it is better than No Deal.

It is better for Ireland than no deal. It does not eliminate the risk of transition ending with no trade deal.

Emilyontmoor · 08/11/2019 09:03

Misti Most big companies have now stopped unpaid internships / and managers being able to bring in friends and family. Their use a full recruitment process for paid internships which are effectively probationary periods for a permanent contract, and they are doing it younger and younger, recruiting them to a programme that starts when they are at school in some cases. That recruitment seems to be focused on selective private schools though in terms of outreach. Remember these entry level jobs are basically cannon fodder, like law firms, they need lots of foot soldiers but few will progress to senior management level.

I suspect the cause of the shift is more to do with the currency of middle class social and economic capital though. Remember this is a sector that expanded massively after Thatcher and sucked a lot of people from diverse backgrounds in, now their children are knocking on the door having been privately educated and groomed for pole position

bellinisurge · 08/11/2019 09:04

Again, @Mistigri , I didn't vote for this shit. But to try and stop Brexit now would be a betrayal of people who did. And they are more numerous than me.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 08/11/2019 09:05

It's going to depend on how well the Brexit Party do. If johnsons deal is so popular the Tories should hoover up the right wing vote.

The losers have been pointing out brexit is a shit show. When industry gets hammered maybe a few years down the line and the potential for civil unrest follows will brexit have been worth it?

GhostofFrankGrimes · 08/11/2019 09:06

Politicians lying to voters is a betrayal. Brexit promised the earth. It will deliver nothing.

Motheroffourdragons · 08/11/2019 09:19

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

mrslaughan · 08/11/2019 09:28

It's interesting isn't - but both Labour and tories have done stuff that could be considered untrustworthy . But no-one on here - in particular- implies that Labour (I pick Labour as there seems to be quite an overwhelming weighting in that direction)supporters for example are untrustworthy.

I don't love any party at the moment - but will use my vote to keep the tories out.

I also wish labour supporters would stop attacking the Lib Dem's - and focus on the tories - as every time they do that, they give the tories a free pass.

And I think this election is only going to get nastier and more personal- which again takes the focus of the real issues.

DGRossetti · 08/11/2019 09:30

It's going to depend on how well the Brexit Party do.

With the emphasis on "how" not as a metric of volume, but an measure of mechanism Grin. Will they get their votes from Tories, Labour, and in what proportion.

Many, many years ago, I saw Hugh Laurie, on stage in "Gasping" by Ben Elton. The central conceit of the plot was that when Pot Noodles were launched as a snack, they gained their market share while no rival product lost any. In effect they made money "from thin air".

Part of UKIP success was they were the Pot Noodle of politics, extracting votes where there had been none before.

Will The Brexit Company do the same, or just steal votes from elsewhere ?

Personally, I still think they are a paper tiger, and unlikely to win any seats - certainly not enough to matter.

I wonder what the arithmetic would be to deliver a parliament with such a perfectly nuanced balance that no single consensus of (continuing to) Leave or Remain could win a majority ? Despite cross-flooring MPs ?

TheElementsSong · 08/11/2019 09:30
Wink
Westminstenders: Dissolved.
DGRossetti · 08/11/2019 09:32

Briefly touching on the women in engineering debate ... it seems that for some, it's a fashion issue, and maybe girls are put of by wearing hard hats ?

That's a MN posters thinking, not mine. But it says something about the level of debate going on.

My first job (sandwich year) my boss, and her boss were both women, in the gas industry.

borntobequiet · 08/11/2019 09:40

In most ways this country is a far better place than it was in the 1970s, for women, for the environment, in education and employment and with regard to tolerance and inclusion.
I would happily vote for a party that promised to take what we have and make it work properly, not by unnecessary and ideological reforms but just by proper funding and consultation of those involved in delivery.

ContinuityError · 08/11/2019 09:42

I also wish labour supporters would stop attacking the Lib Dem's - and focus on the tories - as every time they do that, they give the tories a free pass

History shows that it’s hostility to Tories that makes tactical voting voting work. Hopefully hostility to Brexit will have a similar effect.

JustAnotherPoster00 · 08/11/2019 09:45

Louise Haigh
@LouHaigh
· 25m
Important to remember today that the Government made decisions on where to invest in #flood defences based on 'political calculations'.

The South East receive £180 per head in investment. Yorkshire and Humber gets £83.

TatianaLarina · 08/11/2019 09:45

But to try and stop Brexit now would be a betrayal of people who did.

Disagree. Brexit is a betrayal of the people who voted for it. To give up and allow Brexit without a fight is a betrayal of everyone imo.

The German population voted to leave the League of Nations in 1933 referendum. Where does the betrayal lie there?

ContinuityError · 08/11/2019 09:45

Briefly touching on the women in engineering debate ... it seems that for some, it's a fashion issue, and maybe girls are put of by wearing hard hats

I saw that thread as well DGR and couldn’t believe that anyone could remotely think that (and speaking as someone who went into engineering in the 1980s and spent the best part of a decade in hard hats, rigger boots and Tyvek suits). Even the suggestion that “female friendly PPE” would make a difference made me Hmm

JustAnotherPoster00 · 08/11/2019 09:47

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
·
5m
This is, or should be, remarkable

What the Prime Minister here describes as a "great deal" is exactly what the entire UK now has before Brexit

twitter.com/i/status/1192694594892382208

Peregrina · 08/11/2019 09:49

I also wish labour supporters would stop attacking the Lib Dem's - and focus on the tories - as every time they do that, they give the tories a free pass.

I agree. Having had years and years of lazy Tories "representing" us, we now have a LibDem MP. The chances of Labour getting in are zero but if I lived elsewhere I might vote for them - although the Labour party people I knew tend to be misogynistic, without even realising it, so they are not the most attractive candidates.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall · 08/11/2019 09:55

I do get reds point re her Lib Dem candidate seeming to understand but then not challenging. We have a similar situation here with our Labour candidate, but on Brexit. They are very pro remain (and very lovely) unless it's election time, in which case they play the party tune (they're still lovely in election time I hasten to add). I find it hard to trust that they will do what they say outside if they are elected. However if it were anywhere near feasible that they could topple our ERGer, I'd seriously consider a vote for them. Ironically though I think being an ERGer is what gets the vote round here, so Labour could well beat a more moderate Tory. It's tricky.

DGRossetti · 08/11/2019 09:58

Posted elsewhere ...

Westminstenders: Dissolved.
Clavinova · 08/11/2019 10:02

This is, or should be, remarkable
What the Prime Minister here describes as a "great deal" is exactly what the entire UK now has before Brexit

But surely, it's only a "great deal" for NI because they voted to remain in the EU - it wouldn't be a "great deal" if they had voted the other way!

Clavinova · 08/11/2019 10:13

TheElementsSong

Re your flow chart - why would a Liberal Democrat voter hold their nose and vote Labour to "Keep a Tory out"? Yesterday all the Lib Dem MPs came out to say that Labour wanted Brexit; 'they are a Leave party and everybody knows it'. If that is what they really think then Jeremy Corbyn would mean Brexit and a raid on their inheritance!

FadingStar · 08/11/2019 10:17

😂😂 I actually prefer Verruca.

ContinuityError · 08/11/2019 10:18

Re your flow chart - why would a Liberal Democrat voter hold their nose and vote Labour to "Keep a Tory out"? Yesterday all the Lib Dem MPs came out to say that Labour wanted Brexit;

Previous elections have shown that non-Tory voters will still vote tactically to prevent Tories taking seats despite their parties falling out - see Fisher and Curtice on tactical voting in the 2005 election.