Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...? Part deux GE 2019 special.

[placemats]

New thread.

General election 12th December 2019. Results out on Friday 13th. Unlucky day for some.

So this election is unusual in that it will focus primarily on Brexit and referendums with domestic issues tagged alongside, for some parties.

Thanks Hester.

You tend to get some surprises on the night. Trends get bucked. Ones that look nailed on as a change of hands marginal end up no change and someone with a good majority goes. Always fascinating!

My dream job would be helping out in an election tv studio or Olympic Games! But if probably drop the tea and biccie tray when the exit poll was announced!

Think I've still got the carpet burns scars from my celebratory slide when Portillo lost.

• I'd probably not if probably

Gosh I missed virtually a whole thread, PMK, thanks!!!

I'm hoping to be a polling clerk on the 12th, then home for a nice long night of results as I have work from home Friday the next day!

Oubliette, thanks, that makes sense. Think party switching is more easily explainable when you're also changing constituency, especially if you are a pragmatic rather than ideological voter.

IDS would be excellent!

Cutting Red Tape
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-50280390
India air pollution at 'unbearable levels', Delhi minister says
but JRM says
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-safety-standards-workers-rights-jacob-rees-mogg-a7459336.html
Delhi is the goal

Pmk

For a Remain Alliance to make gains, and deny a Tory majority, I would have thought they need to target more than the 60 seats Swinson is talking about.

The Liberal Democrats are still hinting a Remain alliance could take place across the UK in 'up to 60 seats'.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/jo-swinson-on-sophy-ridge-on-sunday-on-sky-news-1-6355432

And the tactical voting websites all need to give the same advice!

Still a lot of polling with no predictions ...

Ds1 has a late start at college on 13th so he is staying up with me (for a bit)

This is interesting. Deprivation and election result at the 2017 GE.

Also here:
http://ajrae.staff.shef.ac.uk/img/ukimddwithlabelssLAYOUTv44_50pct.png

Managed to reduce Theresa Villiers voting total by two, every little helps!

Interesting from the Guardian - target seats

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/10-key-marginal-seats-that-may-define-the-general-election

NI election numbers and trends...

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/local-elections-2019/
Alliance were the big gainers in May 2019 local elections in NI.

elections.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/ni-european-election-2019
European Parliament election 2019 NI.
You can see where the transferred votes came from in this chart. Click on the arrows to see how it happened - 'Count 1-5'.

If that's a reasonable representation of deprivation, then it basically takes a flame thrower to the argument that Brexit was about austerity. Some of the most strongly remain-voting constituencies are in the highest-deprivation decile.

Boris Johnson has ruled out granting permission for a second vote on Scottish independence while he is prime minister

So stfu, Scotland because Westminster rules you
I'm not a big fan of Independence, but if I were Scottish that arbitrary refusal would put my back up
Why mention it during a GE campaign, or is that his "Fuck Scotland" moment ?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-50280817

"I don't think people in this country think referendums are very wonderful for harmony"

< shame you didn't realise that in 2015; instead you voted for Cameron's irresponsible referendum >

Thanks Ginger. I'll keep searching.

Patient data sell off is incredibly worrying BCF, thanks for the link.

OK, I have to admit I really enjoyed watching Portillo's train journey programmes. I'm keeping who I would love to see getting their Portillo moment to myself - it involves a very right wing ERG member and I don't want to jinx it.

Misti

Fascinating graph.

I too will probably stay up all night on 12th/13th. Nap, set alarm, make sure lots of toast, butter marmite and tea.

Thanks, Hester
I'll be watching out for those seats on election night

Villiers is the dimwit / liar who as NI Secretary kept claiming that NI would not be an issue for Brexit

IDS is a longstanding blot on the political landscape and the architect of the godawful UC

I'm importing a giant box of Marmite crisps from the UK for GE night
(well, that's my excuse. The problem will be not eating the box of 32 before then )

"I don't think people in this country think referendums are very wonderful for harmony"

The current dickhead prime minister isn't very wonderful for harmony either.

mathanxiety

It was clear that most of the SDLP votes went to Naomi Long. Great result and for those living in NI not totally unexpected. She is fabulous in holding her own against the established intransigent Parties - i.e. UKIP, DUP.

View from one of the Home Counties/ West Country seats. (Not sure which Winchester is? Somewhere in between?) that Torys need to hang on too. www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/distrust-boris-johnson-winchester-lib-dem-battleground?CMP=share_btn_fb

Oh god, don't mention IDS losing his seat, it's too much to dream of..

PMK