Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...? Part deux GE 2019 special.

[placemats]

New thread.

General election 12th December 2019. Results out on Friday 13th. Unlucky day for some.

So this election is unusual in that it will focus primarily on Brexit and referendums with domestic issues tagged alongside, for some parties.

pmk and thanks placemats

There has been a wide range of poll leads for some time
This is just one such
One recently showed 16%

Even 8% should give the Tories a majority, unless FPTP pulls their plonker

Let's see how the polls develop over the next 5 weeks - plenty of time for a big change in either direction

Interesting that Brexit may be a bigger issue this GE than in 2017:

Opinium@OpiniumResearch

Could this be an election determined by Brexit views?

At the start of this election campaign, 40% of the public say they are most likely to base their vote on Brexit.

Well done placemats
and Yay for the Alliance

PMK, missed most of the last fred, really cba to read most of the papers today - we get the Sunday Times and the MoS (for the scandal), and really the content was just more and more of the same. Waiting for the debates - but agree with Jo Swinson that she and some of the other party leaders should be included.

Oubliette, what's your primary reason for switching? (Just curious).

Of course the party leaders play a role, but that's true for Johnson as well. My floating voter mum would rather vote for Corbyn than Johnson (she thinks Corbyn is misguided but well-meaning; Johnson is dishonest and self-serving). If the polls narrow' it may matter that Johnson isn't very popular among women, and there are more undecided women than men.

Got a flyer from Boris Johnson through the door today so I think he may be going up in Uxbridge/South Ruislip again

Got a flyer from Boris Johnson through the door today so I think he may be going up in Uxbridge/South Ruislip again

What are the chances of him losing his seat?

Oooh, PMK (thanks placemats)
early for me! :)
LOVE the T-shirt

According to the Guardian/Observer they have a 16 point lead

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/02/tories-hold-16-point-lead-over-labour-according-to-poll

fedup21 Apparently there's a chance he'll lose his seat. They're mobilising the vote at Brunel Uni. (14,000 students.)

Rumours of Richard Tice standing against him.

There are rumours Richard Tice, the multimillionaire businessman and chairman of the Brexit party, could stand for parliament, but he has refused to confirm it would be against the prime minister, a decision that could hand the seat to Labour.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/hes-got-a-battle-on-his-hands-could-uxbridge-unseat-boris-johnson

Remind me of other high profile Tory ministers who have tricky majorities anyone please?

Or ERG types?

So Bozo the Clown is actually going to fight his seat in Uxbridge? Hmm that should be interesting.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/hes-got-a-battle-on-his-hands-could-uxbridge-unseat-boris-johnson

@placemats I don’t own the shirt. I just saw it on Facebook. If it pops up again I’ll put the link on here.

PMK. I haven’t believed the polls since 2017.
Thanks to posters who have explained flaws in polling. And thanks placemats.

It would be so sweet if Tice stood in Uxbridge. Karma doesn’t get any better than that.

@Mistigri - the parliamentary constituency makes a difference (I’ve voted in Skipton & Ripon, Oxford West & Abingdon, Battersea, Cambridge and Bedford - they’re all different). No point in tactical voting in a safe seat, so I go with my preferred party. In more marginal seats I take a different approach. There are typically a couple of parties I couldn’t bring myself to vote for (this time around it’s Brexit and Conservatives), so I’ll pick whoever makes most sense from the remaining options. Of course the policies of the parties change over time, so it doesn’t seem odd to have different affiliations at different elections.

Bozo's biggest fan

www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2019/oct/06/filthy-piece-of-toerag-boris-johnson-constituent-speaks-her-mind-video

Almost unnoticed - the selloff of NHS patient data to US multinationals:

Carole Cadwalladr@carolecadwalla

Deepmind did smash & grab of NHS data.
It was promised this would never be acquired by Google.
That promise was broken.

https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2018/11/14/18094874/google-deepmind-health-app-privacy-concerns-uk-nhs-medical-data?

Carole Cadwalladr@carolecadwalla

Huge repercussions to this acquisition &
^ once again rest of world held captive to US business decisions.^

I find it genuinely creepy that Google has bought my intimate health data without my consent.

That it can now combine this with NHS patient data.
And everything else

Pmk

Tactical voting .....
I admit I find Mike Galsworthy a bit irritating
BUT
his analysis of how anybody from any side of the argument can make tactical voting work for them
is worth watching
twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1190960678934208512

tobee Some seats likely to change hands:
Stuart Andrew a minister for Defence has a majority of 331.
Theresa Villiers - Defra Minister - majority of 353.
Jackie Doyle-Price - Minister for Mental Health and Suicide Prevention - majority of 345.
Stephen Crabb - majority of 314.
Ian Duncan Smith - majority of 2438.

There's always Amber Rudd's seat - I wonder what will happen there. Tory majority of 346.
And Tory Zac Goldsmith with his majority of 45.