Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...? Part deux GE 2019 special.

[placemats]

New thread.

General election 12th December 2019. Results out on Friday 13th. Unlucky day for some.

So this election is unusual in that it will focus primarily on Brexit and referendums with domestic issues tagged alongside, for some parties.

My constituency is part of the way down column 4 in that Deprivation/voting results visualisation. It voted something like 70% Remain

In terms of BJ telling Scotland to STFU - in the last week he has already told Scotland it has no say over devolved matters in the WAB and said that the SNP would "forfeit all right to manage [the NHS in Scotland]" if investment and waiting times did not improve (the waiting times that are better than in England ).

Actually, I should be grateful. He's doing wonders for the SNP campaign in Scotland (Just to counter what DustyDiamond posted )

My constituency is part of the way down column 4 in that Deprivation/voting results visualisation. It voted something like 70% Remain

My last three constituencies (all neighbouring north London consitituencies) are all in the two "most deprived" columns and voted remain by 72, 75 and 79% respectively.

Grieve has about 15k followers and three tweets . I hope he has a chance.

The 'spin' that Brexit was some sort of class/poverty war, with the underprivileged pitted against the elite, has always really bugged me. Where I live, there was a sea of 'Vote Leave' placards in the affluent areas where the Little England types live - the retired gentlefolk who start petitions every time there's talk of housing being built or (shock, horror!) a children's playground being opened. The fact is that Leavers and Remainers came from all types of backgrounds and this insistence that it was all about privilege -v- underprivilege has always struck me as the worst kind of lazy thinking. It's obvious why it was spun like that and why Leavers have jumped on this trope with such gusto, because who wants to be seen as anti-poor people? It has annoyed me on a personal level too, because I am one of those people living below the average wage, struggling from one end of the month to the next, so being told I'm elitist has always fucked me off big time!

Very heartened to see Trump stick his beak in again. Will bound to be raising doubts among Tory voters.

I think Johnson will keep his seat unless Brunel students stay here to vote in huge numbers. It seems to me that most people still seem to love him

I think Johnson will keep his seat unless Brunel students stay here to vote in huge numbers.

If they’re getting properly organised, I’m sure that someone will tell them that they don’t need to stay, they just need to sort out a postal vote...

Morning thanks

Dan Hodges @DPJhodges
Labour still winning the framing battle in this election. NHS dominating. Not entirely sure what the Tory strategy is at the moment.

BTW, it might not make any difference. Toxicity of Corbyn, splits in Remain vote, strength of Boris brand my make a lot of what happens in the campaign irrelevant. But it's weird the way the Tories have been so slow out of the blocks in an election they called.

Matt Chorley @mattchorley
To try to see if 2017 is being repeated I’ve started plotting 20 weeks of pre-election polls for 2017 and 2019 over each other.

Early days but looks like Labour is enjoying an uptick, and Tories well short of same point two years ago

Also as an aside: the idea that the polls were way off in 2017 is not true. Numbers might not have been bang on, but YouGov def picked up the fact that Labour was gaining ground as the campaign unfolded

Corbyn interview

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Good Corbyn interview via ⁦*@GuardianHeather*⁩
- Says Brexit policy must stand. Time to move onto social justice/climate emergency
- He took unilateral decision to go for GE
- He’s not going to attack Johnson personally: “They go low we go high”

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/obey-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-warns-cabinet-dissenters?__twitter_impression=true
Brexit: Jeremy Corbyn warns shadow cabinet dissenters to fall in line
Exclusive: Labour leader says debate is over as he seeks to shift focus to social justice and climate

Correct strategy to take IMO...

"I didn't say anything about 'unionists' hating them though"

"Plenty in Scotland hate Sturgeon, hate the SNP & hate the incessant independence bollocks"

Sounds like Unionists to me
Neutrals would just be indifferent; they wouldn't "hate"

Chuka Umunna @chukaumunna
Donald Trump and Boris Johnson. Two peas in a pod. Same old right wing, nationalist politics. No wonder the President is falling over himself to find an opportunity to endorse the PM. Tells you all you need to know. Another reason to vote @LibDems

Didn't take long.

UK intelligence officials shaken by Trump administration’s requests for help with counter-impeachment inquiry

Will / can BJ help out Trump ?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry-latest-russia-mueller-ukraine-zelensky-a9181641.html?utmsource=taboola&utmm_medium=Feed

“it is like nothing we have come across before, they are basically asking, in quite robust terms, for help in doing a hatchet job on their own intelligence services”.

Has machine learning a place in politics ?

I know it's probably too outre, but one thing Remain campaigners in quite solid Tory seat could do is get out and campaign for BXP. On the basis it would shrink the Tory vote with much less effort than would be needed to boost the Labour/LibDem vote by the same amount.

PMK many thanks as always to Red & all contributors nothing to add as usual, except dreaming that a certain few cretins are ousted from seats especially IDS

Corbyn sounds (childishly) proud of himself for standing up to his (probably Remainer) MPs to support a GE:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/obey-brexit-jeremy-corbyn-warns-cabinet-dissenters

an uncharacteristically assertive Corbyn also said he had made a unilateral decision to back Boris Johnson’s plan to trigger a 12 December general election
– despite the vocal objections of several colleagues, including Labour’s chief whip, Nick Brown.

“I put it to them quite clearly:
I said, our objections are now gone.
We are now supporting a general election – and everybody gulped.

I didn’t alert anybody in advance – it was my decision.
On my own.
I made that decision.
And they gulped, and said, Yes Jeremy.”

10 key marginal seats that may define the general election

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/03/10-key-marginal-seats-that-may-define-the-general-election

It makes me sad that people thought the U.K. was only in the EU for economic reasons.

@JenniferMerode
Jean-Claude Juncker says British pro-Europeans, specifically his "friend Tony Blair", helped create the narrative that led to the 2016 defeat for remain.

mobile.twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1191266579813670912

Juncker being blunt:

On 2016 campaign: he says "So many lies were told, including by current prime minister Boris Johnson."

mobile.twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1191267390228779008

"wee nippy" doesn't just sound sexist.
It is sexist.

The idea that the Westminster PM might be lauded for "standing up" to a request by the First Minister of Scotland is quaintly ridiculous given the balance of power.
Especially after the way the devolved authorities have been systematically excluded from Brexit discussions despite the potentially devastating outcomes for rUK and the clear divergence on issues such as food quality standards, etc. And the fact that BJ feels certain that he can just say "No."
It was made clear from the outset that IndyRef might not be the only one if circumstances changed.
Scotland being dragged out of the EU despite the majority of its citizens not having voted Leave is a clear change of circumstances and the one that everyone knew was being referred to at the time.

People in Scotland may be sick of the divisions caused by Independence debates, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're happy to be trodden on by the likes of BJ.

Scots are indeed not a homogenous group, but many of them have a fairly sensitive detector for arrant English arrogance. The Poll Tax being a classic example.

Erm, re the Guardian link BCF, Kieran Mullan is the Conservative PPC standing in Crewe and Nantwich, not Timpson.

Nothing in the article regarding Northern Ireland and Scotland. I think Wales will bring up surprises too.

More examples of extremism and islamophobia/ plain old racism in the Tory party:

twitter.com/matesjacob/status/1191127203104329728?s=21

Still, at least they're just members and not actual GE candidates eh? The party is apparently standing by the candidate who suggested benefits claimants be put down.

BCF Corbyn is such a plank, though he is comprehensively outplanked by his opposite number.

Oh for an alternative universe in which Starmer was LOTO (and I'm not even a massive Starmer fan).

placemats Here’s some news from NI.

SDLP stands aside in Northern Irish seats to help pro-Remain cause

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/sdlp-seats-general-election-1-6355992

Thank goodness Corbyn is shifting towards other topics such as climate change. Even my Leave-voting family are sick of Brexit, so the chance to talk about something else is very welcome.

The Tories have a lot of seats to fill (incumbents stepping down etc.), so it would not surprise me if they are muted until the 24th. As I said on a previous thread, a lot of the Conservative Associations are on-paper only and the active membership base is lower than we think. Add in a new party leader who does not "do detail" and you have an entire admin staff tearing their hair out. Labour, for all it's faults, does have the advantage of continuity in their HQ.

Lib Dems have spent the entire summer prepping. It's not headline-grabbing stuff (think targeted "boots on the ground")but it's going to have an impact, especially on Tory marginals. I would imagine the SNP have done the same.