Westminstenders: Christmas Cold, Campaigning, Canvassing and Cancelled Carols

[RedToothBrush]

It looks like a December General Election is on.

The EU have officially extended A50 until 31st January. We have to name an EU Commissioner though.

All that seems left to do is decide between the 9th and 12th December.

The difference between the two is about whether there is any possibility that the WAB can be passed before Parliament dissolves.

A pre-brexit GE is thought to favour the LDs at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. What the Brexit Party decide to do and where they decide to stand will also be crucial.

Thanks Basilpots - it's just I may be away so want to sort a postal vote.

the Electorate votes the Tory party in to sort it out, and they get hated.

They’ve been in power since 2010. So a little over 9 years. I don’t see any evidence of them sorting anything out. Perhaps I’m missing something. By all means point me to some evidence to the contrary.

But if debt has gone up while we are cutting back, then how much will it go up if Labour go on a spending spree.
Do you think it is fair people who work get less than people on benefits?

Despite years of austerity, the Tories have increased the national debt

and BJ said "Fuck business" when business leaders told him how Brexit would damage their businesses

This is actually the first ever GE when the Tories are deliberately doing something that they know will hit business

• and for decades to come, not just a short term hit

Since the ref, we have already lost 70 billion in GDP and we haven't even left yet, to feel the full effects

It's astonishing to those of us who remember past decades of Tories,
who did hit the poor, but used to prioritise business as a fundamental plank of their platform

Do you think it is fair people who work get less than people on benefits?

Yes I think its disgusting that employers underpay their staff in favour of shareholder profit

JustAnotherPoster thanks for the sincere reply

The problem with relying on young voters to turn out for Corbyn is (a) his approval rating among young voters has been falling, and falling quite steeply and (b) if they didn't turn out in 2017, why would they do so now?

I'm not a Corbyn hater; I'm not worried about a Corbyn majority and given the alternative, I would be delighted if you elected a minority Corbyn government. I just think that all the evidence suggests that he is a bit useless in his current role.

How much do you think debt will go up after we break with our regional trade bloc, where 45% of our exports go ?
Corbyn's spending plans would be trivial compared to that.

Boris Johnson's Brexit deal will leave the UK £70bn worse off than if it had remained in the EU

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50219036

a study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has found.
It concluded that GDP would be 3.5% lower in 10 years' time under the deal

.....But the Treasury said it plans on a 'more ambitious' agreement with the EU than 'NIESR is basing its findings on'.

< not without all the Level Playing Field regulations that the EU will insist on - which would scupper any US FTA >
....
Founded in 1938, NIESR has no party political ties and is the UK's oldest independent economic research institute.
< but expect them to be condemned as "treacherous Remainers" >
....
NIESR's study modelled different Brexit scenarios against a baseline of the UK staying in the EU.

In the case of a no-deal Brexit, it said, the economy would shrink by 5.6%.

Do you think it is fair people who work get less than people on benefits?

Do you think its fair that disabled people are robbed of their dignity so that already rich people can have tax cuts?

Maybe they locked Corbyn in the loo while someone else wrote them

A cross bench peer Lord Kerslake(sensible sounding chap Was head of civil service under DC) helped them hone it and I suspect fix Milne with some Paddington hard stares.

This has ruffled many a Tory feather. Which makes me think it must be good. Daily Telegraph were cross.

Debt has risen because since 2015 the Tories have cut taxes and increased spending. It ain't rocket science, though I concede that this may be difficult for the hard of understanding.

Boris Johnson's Brexit deal will leave the UK £70bn worse off than if it had remained in the EU

Which probably doesn’t include the £7bn European Bank cash that Johnson has waived?

The problem with relying on young voters to turn out for Corbyn is (a) his approval rating among young voters has been falling, and falling quite steeply and (b) if they didn't turn out in 2017, why would they do so now?

Just make sure of the source Misti, its the rural young that isnt showing the same Corbyn bounce as cities are having and yes that could be an issue, Labour have a good ground campaign hopefully that will be even better considering we have between 450,000 - 500,000 members

Misti I agree he's an incompetent Labour leader - although even he'd struggle to damage the country as badly as the last 3 Tory PMs have done

However, with a GE coming up, I'm putting my "if onlys" in a parking space for the duration

• t's not like we can demand Labour hit him over the head and bury the body somewhere.

I know of 5 people lagging it as Disabled.
I want people who are truly Disabled to get the help they need.
But not the ones who are liars.

The Tories have done terrible things to in work benefits and very little for increasing wages for the lowest paid workers. I’m not sure you can seriously vote Tory if being paid less in work than people on benefits get is a genuine concern.

But not the ones who are liars.

We are all treated as we are

Firstly. Apologies. Haven't read since last night so not sure what's going on in thread at moment. Will go back and read now. I just wanted to leave this here!!!

I want people who are truly Disabled to get the help they need.

We dont

Just watching the pot noodle who has not exploded although the day is still young.

You only have to look across at Trumpland what happens if you fund tax cuts with borrowing, have to compensate you farmers because of tariffs you impose your deficit goes up

www.nytimes.com/2019/10/29/opinion/budget-deficit-republicans.html

Yet as president, Mr. Trump has piled on about $3 trillion to the debt, bringing the total to $22.9 trillion. What’s amazing is that he has managed to increase deficits at a time of historically low unemployment and relative peace, when one would expect the national balance sheet to improve.

Have you reported them mummy?

Potter skim read. Loads of bickering last night. Apologies.

Good god, allSides on all
Out politics are not doing themselves any favours

I wonder if it’s a bit more complicated than that though, violet.

Most of the leave voters I know aren’t planning to vote Tory or Brexit party. 1 will vote labour, most of the rest are going for an anti-brexit independent candidate. I suspect the other two might not bother voting. If they do I’d definitely won’t be for a party with Boris or Farage leading it.

There’s huge potential for this to turn into an almighty mess. Or an even bigger mess than we’re already in.

Of the 'Workington Men' I know, I'd say there are a fair few like this.

I do think this is what the Tory Party (and Dominic Cummings) don't understand culturally.

The North West Leave Vote in particular is culturally different from some other regions and indeed across the NW itself. I don't put Workington in the same culture box as Wigan or Warrington. It's subtle changes but it's like accents. If you are from the NW you can tell the difference in accents between each town even those just 5 miles apart in a way that outsiders can't for example.

Many of those who I suspect are being classified as potential 'Workington men' still don't trust the Tories and they don't identify as closely with Farage as you think.

I believe its slightly different in parts of the Midlands and Yorkshire again.

There isn't a singular Leave voting mentality.

I don't know if this is where the Tories will ultimately come unstuck in treating 'the North' as a singular entity.

It certainly did strike me as a real gaff when Matt Hancock talked the other day about something being available 'from Wigan to Warrington and Bassetlaw to Barnsley' as if it was available everywhere and then when people pointed out how close they are said 'it's also available in Cornwall'.

That type of gaff marks out southerners as being ignorant and 'not like us'.

Johnson has already been something of a cropper with this with trips northward which haven't exactly gone to plan to say the least.

Johnson does well on social media but I'm not so sure that's true of direct campaigning. He does the buffon celebrity thing well but that's not necessarily what people want in a prime minister.

I think the big tell was Johnson pretty much trying to copy Andy Burnham's policies and thinking that's going to sell himself to the North West. Its one thing to do that and another to actually understand the cultural nuisances and issues contained within Burnham's vision.

On that if Johnson proves himself to be lacking with more incidents like the 'there are no journalists here' spectacle at the hospital then things might not go to plan for him.

Treating leavers as 'stupid' is an error. These are people who are experts in their own lives and experiences. Trying to 'culturally appropriate' that badly, won't go down well.

Mummmy2017 If you want to cut benefits, because you think they get too much
and you want Brexit too
then it is going to be tough to find enough reason for you NOT to vote Tory, tbh

Especially if you already voted Tory, not Miliband, in 2015
Maybe if we knew why you might vote for Miliband now, despite Brexit, then we could suggest something ?

Or Swinson and the LDems, or Greens ?