Westminstenders: Christmas Cold, Campaigning, Canvassing and Cancelled Carols

[RedToothBrush]

It looks like a December General Election is on.

The EU have officially extended A50 until 31st January. We have to name an EU Commissioner though.

All that seems left to do is decide between the 9th and 12th December.

The difference between the two is about whether there is any possibility that the WAB can be passed before Parliament dissolves.

A pre-brexit GE is thought to favour the LDs at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. What the Brexit Party decide to do and where they decide to stand will also be crucial.

For poster worried about racism, the Tory party in its current hard right form is by far the worst:

in its policies, its language of "hostile environment", also "picanninnies, post boxes", its whipping up of anti-immigrant feeling,
the natural consequences of all this, such as Windrush

BAME voters realise this, hence the large majority in almost all groups that vote Labour

Boris Johnson's Brexit deal will leave the UK £70bn worse off than if it had remained in the EU

That's the kind of damage the Tories plan to do to the economy

Because the "Party of Business" now says"Fuck Business"
Well fuck UK business - US big business is welcome to come in and buy everything at fire-sale prices

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50219036

a study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has found.
It concluded that GDP would be 3.5% lower in 10 years' time under the deal.

.....But the Treasury said it plans on a 'more ambitious' agreement with the EU than 'NIESR is basing its findings on'.

< not without all the Level Playing Field regulations that the EU will insist on - which would scupper any US FTA >
....
Founded in 1938, NIESR has no party political ties and is the UK's oldest independent economic research institute.
< but expect them to be condemned as "treacherous Remainers" >
....
NIESR's study modelled different Brexit scenarios against a baseline of the UK staying in the EU.

In the case of a no-deal Brexit, it said, the economy would shrink by 5.6%.

The determination to make it 12 Dec and obviously trying to hinder some student voting
may indeed suggest that BJ can't find another seat in time, without looking a chickeny weasel

My hairdresser is looking forward to the election, she will be voting for Boris.

Anyone know how the inquiry into islamophobia in the Conservatives is going ?

Wasn’t that a promise made by Johnson on live TV to Javid ? Never seems to get a great deal of coverage in the media though....

Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹
@LeftieStats
In Watford, Best for Britain is telling voters to vote for the Lib Dems. Here's what the 2017 result in Watford was:

CON: 46% (+2)
LAB: 42% (+16)
LD: 9% (-9)
OTH: 3% (-9)

This is ridiculous!
2:52 PM · Oct 30, 2019·Twitter Web App
4
Retweets
8
Likes
Stats for Lefties 🌹 🌹
@LeftieStats
·
6m
Replying to
@LeftieStats
In Filton & Bradley Stoke, Best for Britain is telling voters to vote for the Lib Dems.

Here's what the 2017 result in Filton & Bradley Stoke was:

CON: 50% (+3)
LAB: 42% (+15)
LD: 6% (-1)
OTH: 2% (-2)

The Lib Dems cannot win this seat. They are 22,287 votes behind the Tories!

If the SNP regains some of the seats that it lost in 2017/won in 2015 (delete as appropriate ) and gets back to 50+ seats, I'd be delighted.

But in partial support to what howabout was saying, that could still mean an Conservative majority - as it did in 2015.

The point is that Scotland rarely makes a difference to the colour of government that is elected and on those rare occasions that it does, it is not a stable one. The current Government is a case in point - with the 13 (extra 12) Conservative MPs making the difference between the Conservatives being able to go into a C&S arrangement with the DUP as a minority government and not being able to form a government

So if the Conservatives lose c12 seats in Scotland, they're going to have to win more than 20 seats elsewhere to get a stable majority. And if they lose seats to the LibDems, they'll need to win even more.

So it really does go down to what is more important to Labour Leave voters: Leave or Labour - or even the Turquoise Party? And to Conservative Remain voters: Remain or Conservative? Add in Conservative Leave voters who also might be tempted by the Turquoise Party.

And because of FPTP, as ever it will be the marginals - and on this occasion, some of the "not so marginals" - that will make the difference - while the rest of us have to just sit and watch.

My exhairdresser is looking forward to the election, she will be voting for Boris.

There you go fixed it for you Tatiana

Don't think it's quite started yet Basil - apparently they were arguing over the definition of Islamophobia

"Given SNP will poll 40+ seats and LibDems polled 50+ in 2010"

Interesting to hear additional expectation from a non-SNP source of expected SNP gains
I'll bow to the knowledge you and pretty have there

So almost all those 13 Tory seats look at risk

• especially if Ruth Davidson continues to stay home during the campaign. (I know pretty has a low opinion of her, but she does seem to reach the parts that other Tories can't)

However, if LDems reach 50 I'd be surprised - and so would they, I suspect !
Looking at marginals, that looks like it would be mostly at the expense of the Tories ?
So, that would be an excellent step indenying them a majority ^

Hmm, looks like Tories will have to do well in those Northern Labour seats, if they want a working majority
I wonder how BJ's piffle goes down there - I thought the charm's worn off outside Tory areas

BigChoc - I might not like her, but I agree, Ruth Davidson was/is an astute politician and did indeed reach parts the other Tories can't reach.

She apparently stood in every constituency in Scotland in both the GE and the Scottish Parliament elections as the Scottish Conservative election literature told us to vote for her

To be fair, I suspect that the Conservative HQ literature will be saying something along the same lines about BJ - that is, if they manage to find space alongside the Corbyn bogeyman arguments

Just Best for Britain are promoting remain candidates, is it possible the Labour candidate is pro Brexit??

My work constituency Best for Britain is promoting the Labour candidate because he is a remainer.

It’s not an anti Labour thing it’s an anti Leave thing.

Ah ok, thanks Basil

I'm not sure how many Scottish Conservative seats the Tories will lose - it would be lovely if it was all 13 and Scotland goes back to being a Tory MP free country - but I suspect that there will be a few that will cling on - at the very least Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, which was location for the lonely Scottish Tory MP for many a GE

One seat I do see them losing is Stirling, where Stephen Kerr has a majority of 148 - and is up against the lovely Alyn Smith for the SNP although it does mean the EU's loss as he will have to step down as an MEP

...Wow!

Just heard Emma Dent Coad laying into Johnson's culpability for cuts to the LFB and his obscene response to questions about it as mayor. Also blames the nominatively non-determined James Cleverly who was on the GLA at the time and responsible for the cuts policy.

Questions to follow both of them on the campaign.

That's interesting JustAnother

The LibDems in my area will certainly not win. I'm going to focus all my energy in supporting the Labour candidate, who is a great guy when it comes to election issues. And of course I will vote Labour.

I'm voting for my local candidate. and to get the incumbent Tory MP out

On a contrary note. My DS will be voting for the first time. It will be Labour, but he will be voting for Jeremy Corbyn and not the local representative. He's 18.

General elections are weird.

Matt Turner
@MattTurner4L
·
2h
Johnson unable to keep the focus on Brexit, Corbyn pushing domestic agenda. Tories heckling Corbyn about the colour of his tie, not knowing it was in memory of Grenfell. Great start to their election campaign... #PMQs

Alex Wickham
@alexwickham
· 1h
NEW: Boris Johnson's campaign fears an historic NHS winter crisis will dominate the December election

— Tory MPs warned it could be worst for decades
— concerns over Dispatches US trade deal story
— Hancock to meet Simon Stevens weekly during campaign

UKIP Leader Richard Braine has resigned.
I didn't even know he was the leader 🤷‍♀️

There you go Just

But they do need to be careful and be clearer with their information.

I know a local labour activist quite well. He is a rabid anti semite. We very rarely speak now as I called him out on it ..... Hoooo can you give examples of what this person said/did to reveal their anti-semitism?

Interesting symmetry with the attempts to get Brexiteers to actually state what laws the EU had imposed on the UK, which always resulted in tumbleweed.

I notice elsewhere a thread popping up with lots of assertions of anti-semitism that are similarly being called on for examples.

On the one hand, I don't really know enough to comment ...

...couldn't happen to a nicer party

Not that I want a winter NHS crisis but it would be good to be able to hold the Conservatives accountable for it - without them being able to pretend to put in new policies while purdah is in operation

Mine says Vote Labour.

Given the city voted Remain and given the MP is a Labour Remain MP, I think that's a sensible idea.

UKIP Leader Richard Braine has resigned.

I didn't even know he was the leader

I suspect it came as a shock to him, too.