Brexits Arms - To GE or Not to GE that is the question?

[time4chocolate]

Will the man from del monte say yes on Monday or will he leave a lot us doing this.....again

Hey epic

For whats its worth i didnt think you were telling limited to go away, i hope they come back

“For whats its worth i didnt think you were telling limited to go away, i hope they come back”

Thanks Rufus.

I hope limited comes back too

Watching All out politics on sky. Soubry is on already looking hacked off... . Tbf, though, after Swinsons Party trick, I can hardly blame her. 😬

I agree that a GE shouldn't be about a single issue but what other way is there to break the deadlock?
Labour imo have dithered far too long to have a coherent policy on Brexit - the idea that they will negotiate a great new deal with the EU and put it to a referendum where many Labour MP's will campaign against it is nonsensical.

I have a feeling that Labour have made a grave mistake aiming for ideological purity, that will not win them the election.

I think Cons will have a clear majority and will thus be able to deliver Brexit.

Boris only won his seat with a 5,000 majority and it’s a seat being targeted by the LD’s. Funny if the Tories won the election but Boris lost his seat!

Rumours are that Boris will take over a safe Tory seat to prevent any such embarrassing scenario.

On the Soubry track, the other issue that must be resolved through a GE. Is the lack of by-elections for the changelings. It’s honestly ridiculous that MPs should be able to change parties and totally pivot, against the views of their own constituents without any immediate recourse to the electorate. I for one would by happy with an urgent GE for this reason alone.

We are currently stuck with a useless, career driven MP, who has done less than ZERO for our local constituency, and is vociferously out there furthering their own tv career on the back of their pro remain/peoples vote stance. They completely disregarded the overwhelming view of their own constituents and despite being deselected by their own local party, still stubbornly continue on in the same vein. It’s outrageous behaviour.

“Boris only won his seat with a 5,000 majority and it’s a seat being targeted by the LD’s. Funny if the Tories won the election but Boris lost his seat!”

This would be an obscure situation indeed!

I wish we had the neighbouring MP. That MP is frequently in parliament at all hours, despite all the brexit stuff, advocating for their constituents on local issues. Our MP seems to vapourise to attend yet another tv interview as soon as any brexit issues in parliament are done and dusted. Can’t wait to see the back of that bloody charlatan.

and before anyone says anything...i know that this election will be run on one issue

It will. It what screws things up is we have a 2 major party system, one of which has no clear policy on that one issue

Ok, I know they’ve said negotiate a better deal and then vote on that or remain but there’s a lot of unknowns within that, plus Corbyn is a Lexiter so hardly trustworthy on the subject

Morning all.
Wee bit voting analysis for Uxbridge based on my previously outlined methodology.

2017 result Boris 24k, Labour 19k, LibDem 2k,
2015 UKIP vote 6k most of which appears to have gone Labour in 2017
2010 LibDem vote 9k most of change in 2017 appears to have gone Labour

Most likely outcome with strong Labour and LibDem campaigns is return to safe Tory seat with 2015ish result of:
Boris 23k, Labour 12k, LibDem 9k.

Unknowns are how well Brexit Party and Greens poll. My hunch is would be Brexit Party goes Tory and Greens take a chunk out of both Labour and LibDems.

In short I don't think Boris is looking at losing his seat, even if Labour and LibDems form a pact.

Would be interested in a counter analysis of this.

Useful stats there, thanks, @howabout.

I actually don't think the election will be fought on Brexit at all. Labour are still facing both ways and are the only Party which could win enough seats to replace the Tories.

“I actually don't think the election will be fought on Brexit at all.”

Really? I disagree, I think overwhelmingly it is the most urgent and prescient issue. No doubt some will vote with a local/policy perspective, but I suspect the majority will use this as a defacto 2nd ref.

Epic that would mean all Remainers outside Scotland voting LibDem. In Scotland they would all vote SNP. I just don't see that happening.

Alternatively I also don't see them all holding their noses and voting Labour tactically.

Therefore "other issues" are more important than Brexit. Since there is now a compromise Deal on the table "other issues", including the approach to the trade talks ought to take precedence. If MPs really thought a PV and rerun of Ref was viable surely they would have voted for it by now.

“Therefore "other issues" are more important than Brexit. Since there is now a compromise Deal on the table "other issues", including the approach to the trade talks ought to take precedence”

I agree, but the massive up swing to lib dems and BXP in the polls would suggest otherwise. I don’t know, it’s such a complex issue isn’t it? Every single voter has their own lens through which they view current events and policies, that aren’t necessarily borne out by our specific viewpoints in here. I guess the figures will show on the day, what was foremost in voters minds.

Morning!

Boris only won his seat with a 5,000 majority and it’s a seat being targeted by the LD’s. Funny if the Tories won the election but Boris lost his seat!

Would actually be quite funny & wouldn't necessarily be a terrible outcome...?!

Tories with a healthy majority could ratify the WA & get us into transition - & a less controversial/divisive figure as PM could ease the tensions moving forward

I'm not personally that arsed about BJ's career fortunes tbh - he was the right man for the job at this point as far as I'm concerned. Longer term there's other people I'd prefer.

Interesting looking at the figures for his seat though - agree with Howabout that the 2017 Labour vote will melt away

Morning Dusty!

“Tories with a healthy majority could ratify the WA & get us into transition - & a less controversial/divisive figure as PM could ease the tensions moving forward”

I Agree.

🤦🏻‍♀️

Stella creasey, trying to force the 16 yr old votes again, by pushing an amendment, that cancels out last nights amendment preventing futher amendments.

Ffs. My head is melting.

JC has just confirmed that Labour is going to back Election.

Yeah, just seen that on sky angelina. Creasey doesn’t seem overwhelmed with the idea...

JC has just confirmed that Labour is going to back Election.

At last!

“At last!”

I’m not counting my ‘chlorinated chickens’ just yet bear, I’ll believe it when I see it!

Some murmering about either the SNP or lib dems changing their position, it all moves and changes so fast now, I can’t even remember who it was or who said what when. It’s starting to feel like the generation game.

A teddy bear!
A microwave!
A possible pivot by the SNP!

🤷🏻‍♀️ I don’t even know who I am anymore...

Epicwaffle I only half heard what Creasey said. Was it votes for 16 year old EU students who may be considering moving here one day? Seriously?!!?

Bring on an election I say! A Labour defector MP (now Lib Dem) has been helicoptered into our remain voting constituency to stand against our big name Conservative Brexiteer. Lib Dems don't stand a cat in hells chance of winning this - our MP may be a Brexiteer but he is a respected, hands on MP and more importantly he went to school here lives locally. He knows us and we know him and I won't be voting for some wishy washy flitter I may have voted Labour in the past but He is 100% getting my vote.

“Epicwaffle I only half heard what Creasey said. Was it votes for 16 year old EU students who may be considering moving here one day? Seriously?!!?”

In a nutshell yes! 🤦🏻‍♀️