Anyone else worry that we could end up with civil war and the break up of the UK?

[KennDodd]

All because of that wretched unnecessary referendum.

A number of surveys have shown just how many people think violence and the break up of the UK is a price worth paying for Brexit (or no Brexit). We've already got increased tensions in both NI and Scotland. Brexit has all the far right racist groups on their side, so quick to violence, Remain has the young on its side, so again quick to violence. Politicians and the media seem to be intent on only raising the temperature further.

This isn't something that keeps me awake at night or anything but I think people are naive if they think it could never happen here. I suppose one way to avoid it would be if Brexit did happen and the sunlit uplands and all the Brexit promises actually happened. I don't know anyone (Leave or Remain) who believes everything will suddenly get a lot better anymore though. Even if it did I still can't see any solution for the border in Ireland.

but they can refuse to collude with them in a deal that would break the GFA

Incorrect as EU are not a signatory to GFA and hence can’t use GFA to dictate terms of a deal or to reject no deal that was sanctioned by all EU members when they signed Article 50 in 2009.

Now that Boris has a big majority he can say to EU;

”Accept our proposal or its no deal as allowed by Article 50”

Remember there is nothing illegal about no deal as all EU members sanctioned such an outcome in 2009 long before the referendum took place.

All Johnson needs to do is to wait until EU instruct Ireland to install a border then Ireland has breached the GFA. Means UK has no borders of its own under WTO, but worth it in the short term to force Ireland to make the first move with respect to border construction.

This point was raised on QT 4 April this year and the Irish MEP, Meread McGuiness, did not deny that no deal was a bigger loss for Ireland than it would be for the UK.

As one panel member pointed out;

“If the EU wants a border between North and South let them get in with it”

That those who rattled on about NI and GFA for years after 2016 referendum were ignored in the recent general election proves that 17.4 million people who voted leave couldn’t care less about the GFA.

I think we’ve become incredibly divided. Marginalised people are more marginalised now. Deep rifts have become angry. The election has worsened this. Demo on Whitehall was not unexpected. I don’t think there will be a civil war but I do think there will be unrest. Lived through Thatcher as a young adult and it feels as though similar unrest isn’t unlikely.

No. I live in an officially 'deprived area'. We are along way away from people round here being motivated enough to riot or demonstrate in any way.

The more you look at the electoral map of NI, the more the attraction of a repartition, with the Republic getting Fermanagh, South Tyrone, South Armargh and the Bogside. Maybe even West Belfast as a Fenian West Berlin, wall and all.

I'm most worried about the lower level day to day aggression and far tbh.

Examples in the last 24 hours :

Stood next to woman in local supermarket loudly and aggressively questioning the till operator about how he had voted, making clear she had voted Conservative and that was the only acceptable answer. Her friends sniggering. He wisely told her he didn't get involved in politics. Why should he be subject to that while working?

Woman I went to school with on Facebook. Day after the referendum she was posting about now we get the vermin out. Meaning anyone foreign or brown I think. Now crowing and posting messages that make me feel deeply unnerved along similar lines, as though she has won something.

It's not violence, its like hitlers Germany in the 1930s and its deeply disturbing.

Meaning anyone foreign or brown I think.

She is going to be disappointed there. Now that we are making EU citizens unwelcome, where are we going to get the care workers, fruit pickers, nurses etc. from? We will have to import more people of black and brown skin. For the racists - suck it up, that's what you voted for.

Bloody hell myfavouriterain - agree there are a lot of low level echoes of pre war German nascent fascism. No matter how anyone voted I’d hope we’d all be shocked by how we’ve changed over the last 4 years - 30 years really.

Maybe "An Australian-Based Points System" means White Australia circa 1960s, but then you had loads of Greeks, Italians and Croatians.

More likely, it means fewer European Christians and more black and brown folks from India and other countries that aren't giving us any trade deal unless they get more visas. (Which is also what the Aussies are saying.)

Maybe even West Belfast as a Fenian West Berlin, wall and all.

A 'Peace Wall' already exists. No need for any new building.

Incorrect as EU are not a signatory to GFA and hence can’t use GFA to dictate terms of a deal or to reject no deal that was sanctioned by all EU members when they signed Article 50 in 2009.

Sorry to bust your bubble, but Ireland is a member of the EU and cannot (and would not) agree to any treaty that had a negative effect on it.

'effect on the GFA' that is.

Sorry to bust your bubble, but Ireland is a member of the EU and cannot (and would not) agree to any treaty that had a negative effect on it

EU is not a member of the GFA. Departure from the EU is done in accordance with Article 50 which makes no reference to the GFA.

Article 50 allows any member to leave the EU without a deal and was signed by all EU member states, Ireland included. There are no caveats in Article 50 that prevents any member from leaving the EU if it is to the detriment of another member.

If EU and UK can’t make a deal then as per article 50 UK leaves without a deal. Again there are no caveats that state a member can only leave the EU if the terms of departure are to the satisfaction of all other members.

Ireland obviously didn’t read Article 50 before they signed.

Ireland gets a vote in every decision of the EU, including trade agreements the EU concludes with third parties (i.e. the UK once it finally leaves).

While the UK can leave without a deal if it wants to, it will have to have a trade agreement if it ever wants to trade with the EU afterwards. And LOL, the new EU trade commissioner is none other than Ireland's own Bruiser Hogan.
Hogan in quotes:
"If the UK fails to prevent a crash-out Brexit they should be under no illusion regarding the foul atmosphere they will create with their EU partners and the serious consequences this will have for negotiating any future trade agreement...The UK government's only Churchilian legacy will be - 'never have so few done so much damage to so many'... Gambling with peace and the Good Friday Agreement is not good politics." - Irish Independent, 21 August 2019

One vote against an agreement by any member state, and a trade agreement is scuttled, as you no doubt noticed with the EU-Canada trade agreement when a region of Belgium disapproved. Not even a country. As you may have also noticed, the Backstop in the current WA exists thanks to Ireland's concerns about the GFA.

Ireland voted not once but twice on the Lisbon Agreement. Thanks to Ireland's referendum commission, Ireland's voters and politicians were very well aware of the contents of that treaty.

Of course, the UK is entitled to go ahead and pretend a huge trading bloc on its doorstep doesn't exist, but that is yet another bubble waiting to be burst.

You can also try to pretend that international treaties are disposable and not worth the paper they are printed on, but that might not be a good idea when heading into a negotiations related to international treaties, with potential partners whose government includes influential Irish lobbies, or people who see international treaties as the opposite of disposable, and worth more than the paper they are printed on.

To add to math summary - Ireland has been granted an enhanced role in how the Brexit agreement will be implemented. EU may not be signatures to the GFA but one of their members is.

While the UK can leave without a deal if it wants to, it will have to have a trade agreement if it ever wants to trade with the EU afterwards

It’s called WTO. Remember UK buys more from the EU than EU buys from the UK. Also UK is the third largest donor to the EU. Whereas Ireland only became a net contributor in 2014 (a miserable £200K I remember).

A no deal departure makes the current WA invalid and the backstop void. Ireland will then have to install a border between North and South in accordance with EU regulations. UK can sit back on WTO rules and say that the hard border is a result of EU law and nothing to do with UK as if UK leaves EU without a deal they are no longer bound by EU laws.

If Trump trashes the WTO it gets worse as UK could impose border controls on UK mainland, but leave NI open. Ireland then comes under more pressure to install a hard border to prevent goods that are non EU compliant from entering Ireland as once in Ireland they could end up anywhere in the EU and Ireland would be held accountable.

But UK would have to deal with repercussions of a hard border regardless of who installed it. Violence and/or calls for a ref on united Ireland.

LOL @ 'WTO'.

The WTO is the equivalent of landing on a cold, hard concrete floor because the safety net wasn't in place when you jumped. If an economy was just an abstract entity and there were no lives or livelihoods involved in its ups and downs, fair enough - roll the dice, see what turns up. But a government placing its faith in the ability of a struggling economy to compete in a global economy with the resources Britain has to hand is risking the lives of a whole generation of Britons.

There won't be a NI in five years time if there is a hard border along that imaginary line. Just an island called the United Kingdom of England and Wales, with Scotland independent and Ireland consisting of 32 counties, benefiting greatly from membership of the EU, the Regional Fund, support for agriculture, well-positioned as an English speaking country to attract investment, to continue to develop trade links world wide as Ireland is doing today.

What you are proposing wrt Ireland and borders is essentially to become a rogue state. Good luck negotiating trade agreements with a reputation like that.

You will need all the good luck you can lay your hands on when negotiating with the US if you try to kick Ireland around, because Ireland's congressional lobby is second only to Israel's when it comes to bending ears in Washington.

If a hard border results in violence and deaths those who installed the border are responsible.

WTO has made it clear that in the event of a no deal they will not require either Ireland or the UK to install a hard border. However, EU law is clear in that there must be hard borders between EU and Non EU Countries as exist in Eastern Europe.

This is why EU came up with the suggestion that NI remains in the customs union as EU is fully aware they will be blamed for Instructions to Ireland to install a hard border.

If EU relax the border rules between NI and Ireland they must do the same in Eastern Europe

So will the UK just sit on its hands if there is violence at the proposed border? Because it's not the UK's fault? All that flexing of muscles in Ireland's direction and nothing to show for it? Sending troops to NI didn't look good before and it won't a second time either, especially since censorship and selective news reporting isn't a thing any more thanks to the internet.

Violence and a military response and the disapproving eyes of the world are not actually the main issues the UK should be afraid of when it comes to NI. The breakup of the UK by peaceful, democratic means is a far more likely outcome of a ruinous Brexit policy.

Nancy Pelosi visited the border and addressed the Dail a few months ago.
www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-47979214
If the UK's manner of leaving the EU damages the Good Friday Agreement then forget about a US-UK trade deal.

"That's just not on the cards if there's any harm done to the Good Friday accords," she said.

Better watch that hubris.

Nancy Pelosi is from Italian descent. Italy is forecast to be the second greece. She is thinking of Italy as opposed to Ireland.

UK already trades with the US so what difference does Pelosi’s opinion make.

Considering all the horror stories spread about US food products what makes you think UK wants a free trade deal with US?

You will need all the good luck you can lay your hands on when negotiating with the US if you try to kick Ireland around

Considering all the horror stories about USA food products what makes you think UK wants a free trade deal with the US?

UK already trades with the US and the volumes are greater than that with Germany.

Nancy Pelosi is from Italian descent. Italy is forecast to be the second greece. She is thinking of Italy as opposed to Ireland.

This vision of how US politics works is just mind-boggling, TBH, as is so much else. Nancy Pelosi can hold more than two ideas in her brain at one time...

Richard Neal and others have been v clear on their refusal to agree to a trade deal that doesn't respect the GFA. The Friends of Ireland caucus wields considerable power.

Violence and a military response and the disapproving eyes of the world are not actually the main issues the UK should be afraid of when it comes to NI. The breakup of the UK by peaceful, democratic means is a far more likely outcome of a ruinous Brexit policy

Other than not being near the top of the medals table at the Olympics, would the break-up of the UK by peaceful, democratic means, something to be afraid of?

Richard Neal and others have been v clear on their refusal to agree to a trade deal that doesn't respect the GFA. The Friends of Ireland caucus wields considerable power.
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What makes all remainers think UK wants a free trade deal with the US? Many US food products, colourings, additives, preservatives are already banned from the EU.

Plus UK already does more trade with US than it does with Germany.

The illusion that the GFA (which most of the world had never heard of before Brexit) is one of the Ten Commandments which takes priority over Article 50 that was fully accepted by Ireland over 10 years ago is astonishing.

Ireland accepted the terms of Article 50 and must therefore bear any negative consequences of Article 50 if UK does what Article 50 allows and leaves the EU without a deal.

Ireland won’t bear any negative consequences from the violence..none whatsoever . all the violence will be in the UK... a region of the UK called Northern Ireland.