Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

The divorce bill alone will cost £33 billion.

That will be paid to the EU? Who, in the EU?

So, is it solely these people in the EU who are due to benefit?

I don’t get how anyone in this country will benefit?

Yes, please let me know how to get on the bandwagon. If we exit I want to make some money from it..

Misti I am with you there, it will be a shock to them.

PMK

fedup the "divorce bill" is the UK's commitments to EU programmes that were made prior to Brexit. Things like the Galileo satellite system, the Horizon 2020 research funding programme, environmental protection, and pensions for EU staff employed while Britain was a member. I'm sure there's a long list somewhere.

J Rees Mogg has a company in Dublin for starters.

the "divorce bill" is the UK's commitments to EU programmes that were made prior to Brexit. Things like the Galileo satellite system, the Horizon 2020 research funding programme, environmental protection, and pensions for EU staff employed while Britain was a member. I'm sure there's a long list somewhere.

Ok, interesting.

So when people keep saying that some people are going to make billions out of a no Deal Brexit, who are these people? People involved in these EU projects?

No, the EU will lose money by the UK leaving as we're a net contributor to their budget.

I think some of it is currency speculation, look up "shorting" for an explanation. The rest is what's called "disaster capitalism". Force businesses to go under, buy up their assets cheaply, and sell at a profit.

The billions aren't coming from the divorce bill, The billions are nothing to do with the EU. They are coming from hedge fund managers betting against a pound in free fall and the government selling off national assets to their cronies.

The divorce bill is completely separate. It is money we already owe - not potential money to be made. It is something we need to pay in order to honour commitments we have already made (and benefited from). Brexiteers pretend this is a 'cost' being forced on us and we shouldn't pay it, rather than a bill for things we have already received.
Paying it is part of the deal - which is one of the reasons some people want to no deal. But is not the same reason as the reason for wanting no deal in order to make money. Your ordinary brexiteer on the street wants no deal for the first reason, your vulture capitalist hedge fund manager wants no deal for the second.

I think some of it is currency speculation, look up "shorting" for an explanation. The rest is what's called "disaster capitalism". Force businesses to go under, buy up their assets cheaply, and sell at a profit.

Thank you so much-that makes sense!

fedup21 - shorting against the £ is effectively simply big stake gambling that the £ will go down in value.

So uncertainty is good for the hedge funders - who do this for a living . Crispin Odey has already made a fortune betting against the pound

fedup Hedge-funders bet against against^ share prices of UK businesses^, not just Sterling

e.g. Odey and his Brexit windfalls

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/dec/28/crispin-odey-hedge-fund-bets-against-uk-economy-brexit-profit-falls

Odey was one of the most prominent supporters of the drive to leave the EU and donated almost £900,000 to pro-Brexit campaigns.

He placed huge bets against the pound and government bonds^
in the run-up to the June 2016 referendum^

and made an estimated £220m profit when the pound collapsed following the leave victory.

The day after the vote, he told the BBC:
“There’s that Italian expression – ‘Il mattino ha l’oro in bocca’ (the morning has gold in its mouth)
and never has one felt so much that idea as this morning.”

Odey has boasted that each day of Brexit-related political crisis is a “good day” for him and his hedge fund.

“I have had a good day,” he told the Times last month, on a day when the pound fell 2%.
“Bad days tend to be good days for us.”

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-5824697/Brexiteer-Odey-bets-500m-AGAINST-British-businesses.html

His firm Odey Asset Management has taken out more than £500 million ‘short’ positions
– which are essentially a gamble that a share price will fall –
on some of Britain’s biggest firms,
implying that he expects a poor performance from them.
…
Odey’s apparent lack of confidence in flagship British firms stands in marked contrast to his fund’s investments in other countries,

including France, Germany and the US, where he is mainly backing shares to rise

You can make money in both directions though, and Odey has had some bad years too.

I do think that there is a significant risk that there has been some insider trading based on advance knowledge of political events or even outright market manipulation, but I'm not sure that it's automatically true that a weak exchange rate is automatically good for hedge funds.

Speculators make tend to make the most money when they bet on something that isn't expected. If Brexit were to be cancelled someone would make money out of that too.

fedup Then there are the US Oligarchs and US Big Biz - giant software / tech firms, pharma, the massive agri-farming industry

who want free rein in the UK as they have in the US

• that means removing UK workers rights, consumer rights, environmental / recycling regs

There are also UK business interests who think they can make billions from a "Bonfire of Regulations"

e.g. The Open Europe (pro-Brexit) think tank have a hit list of workers' rights to repeal
which they claim bring zero benefit to business, just costs, including:

. Working time rules (£4 billion a year )
. Agency worker regulations (£500 million)
. Parental & maternity leave regulations (a snip at £60 million a year)
. Harassment regs flowing from EU law (£180 million)
. Various health & safety regs (e.g. asbestos regulations £23 million)

@ContinuityError stunning puss cat! What breed?

To make huge profits, an exchange rate or share price doesn't have to be weak - it has to change suddenly / unexpectedly

Of course speculators can lose a lot of money if they guess wrongly,
but so far people like Odey who are involved in Brexit have won far more than they have lose

There were massive windfalls and fortunes of billions made in the 1990s when Russia collapsed

The UK economy is an order of magnitude larger than Russia and hence a very tempting target,
if sufficient chaos and rapid changes can be caused by gross political incompetence (or even deliberate acts of harm)

Somewhat belated PM from a longtime lurker in these threads (and thank you to everyone, I've learned a lot).

Remember, 31 October is this Thursday, so it looks like we'll only learn if we have an extension - and what kind - shortly before

Adam Parsonss@adamparsons*

Senior EU source tells me decision on extension now very unlikely to come before Tuesday.

Bcf please explain the result of this decision very simply if you wouldn't mind...it's been a looooong day....

The Times claims that EU officials now wish they had kept far away from Labour,
as Labour's policy could drag out Brexit for maybe years if they win a GE ....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-officials-regret-getting-into-bed-with-remainers-wxh2gkvjc

European Union officials and diplomats are “tearing their hair out” at the twists and turns of Labour’s “mad” Brexit policy
and regret past tactical alliances with Remain campaignerss_.

One Brussels source close to negotiations said the EU had “made mistakes” with Labour and was now horrified at the party’s convoluted position
as political chaos in Westminster raises the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn taking the keys to Downing Street.

“They want us to negotiate a ‘credible’ deal and then they will campaign against it in a referendum?
That is mad.
How can we negotiate with people like that?”

an EU source said.

“Their divisions and magical thinking are as bad as anything the Conservatives produced — perhaps worse.”

Grinchly She’s a Lilac Point Siamese - but she’s getting older (and fatter) and darker.

So uncertainty is good for the hedge funders - who do this for a living hmm. Crispin Odey has already made a fortune betting against the pound angry
As has Soros, who is a staunch Remainer. It's their job, irrespective of their ideology/political leaning.

Any employee with an employee pension scheme may also have found the fall in the pound has benefited their fund recently, it's not just the super wealthy.

@ EU response to Labour's Brexit position.

Hooo The EU are probably only going to be able to decide v late about an extension - because there is clear difference of opinion between 2 types of extension:

1. Merkel & her allies (who want a 31 Jan extension)
   vs 2) Macron & his allies ( who want only a short extension)

2. If they offer a "Flextension,"
   that means an extension that will continue until 31 January, but will end sooner if the WA / WAIB is passed before then.

This gives time for a GE before Brexit, but not for a PV
Polls indicate Farage will take some votes from BJ at any GE when Brexit has not yet happened
That may be enough to avoid a Tory GE win. Or not.

2. If the EU only offer a 2-4 week extension, then all the UK can do is just pass the WA and WAIB as is in November, no amendments, just suck it up The alternative would be No Deal

So we Brexit at end of November on those terms

This means any GE would be after Brexit, which would be a big advantage for BJ

Megan The difference is that the Brexiter hedge-funders have been funding Brexit, which is the cause of all this uncertainty ....
and which has already brought them large windfall profits

Soros will probably make profits too
but as in the Black Wednesday ERM debacle, when he made a billion,
he kept warning the govt that what they were attempting would not work

They didn't listen, so he took his profit