Westministenders: Sub-Prime Minister at large

[BigChocFrenzy]

Our Sub-Prime Minister BJ is threatening a govt tantrum strike until he is allowed his Haribo GE on 12 December.

If MPs vote for a GE, he has promised them "more time" to debate the WAB,
but that would only be from 29 October to 7 November

• ridiculously inadequate for such complex legislation -

before Parliament is automatically dissolved for the 25 sitting days before a GE.

The GE debate starts Monday 2:30 pm in the HoC
Corbyn says he'll agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table

BUT wIth this WA,
No deal cannot 100% be taken off the table whilst the Tories are in office:

they could still No Deal after transition ends on 31 December 2020,
if they don't request a transition by July.

We don't know when the EU will give their decision on an extension, or what it will be:

The EU may decide only after the HoC vote
- in which case MPs would be voting "blindly"

Tusk, Merkel & most other leaders want to grant the Flextension until 31 January,
but Macron & a few others want to give a short extension of only 2-4 weeks, to pressure MPs to pass the WA in November

• in which case the GE would take place shortly after Brexit, which would be a gift to BJ.

A 12 December GE would also cause serious logistical problems for local council officials:

Apart from their poll station bookings clashing with Xmas bookings for church halls & schools,

they are legally required to send out all the polling cards based on the current electoral roll,
then at the GE, check names against the new electoral roll which must be updated on 1 December

The Rebel Alliance want a long extension, so they have time to add amendments to the WAB,
e.g. a CU, the Level Playing Field agreement in May's WA, maybe even a PV
So many may want to vote against a GE before that ..... but what does Corbyn want ?

BJ as PM could still change the date of any GE after he has agreed to it, if it suits him.

What does BJ want ?
Alice Cooper said it:

"I'm your top prime cut of meat, I'm your choice
I wanna be elected
I'm your yankee doodle dandy in a gold Rolls Royce
I wanna be elected
Kids want a savior, don't need a fake

I wanna be elected
We're all gonna rock to the rules that I make
I wanna be elected, elected, elected..."

m.youtube.com/watch?v=cSvy8HpxFxo

• Post edited to correct dates

It was the clearest demonstration to me of the strength of US-Irish ties as opposed to US-UK.

..

The second thing was that, as I have seen in other American cities, in the midwest and east in particular, is that Irish cultural references are everywhere. I've spent time in New York, Boston, and Chicago - loads of Irish pubs, street names, Irish flags, shamrocks, etc. Say to anyone white that you flew in via Ireland and they'll tell you all about their extended family/ancestry from that country.

or, TL;DR - Bonnie Greer wasn't bullshitting

The nightmare scenario for Brexiteers would be a growing US Republican Irish sentiment against Brexit that starts to eat into Trumps normal support base. (And if I can type it, it's impossible others haven't already thought it). We've seen the famous Trump flip-flop everywhere, so there's no reason to think Brexit would be inviolate.

Imagine Trump suddenly tweeting that Brexit has been so messed up, because no one took his advice (part of which is actually true ) and the UK should give up on it, as it's clearly incapable.

There are many interlocking parts to the Brexit machine. Not all of them apparent or even obvious.

but there is a strength of feeling for Ireland that simply is not there for the UK. Is this news?

I'm not American, and I'm naturalized British. Didn't grow up in the UK, didn't move here till several years post GFA. It was something I was vaguely aware of, but not something fully realized. I suspect that this is the case for even plenty of non-NI British people.

PMK. I don't think we've had any swans yet.

Ireland and America both share a certain status in regard to GB.

If you know your US constitution and bill of rights, "tyrant" gets a lot of mentions. As in Big-G; George-the-three. The British.

It's one reason why casting a Brit as a baddie in a US film is the same as our casting a German.

Also Trump's strength of feeling is not for Ireland but for Scotland. To what extent has diplomacy been channeled in that direction?

Corbyn is wanting BJ to say, ‘no Deal is off the table’ before he agrees to a GE, yes?

What if BJ does agree, they have a GE and BJ wins? Can he say, ‘ha ha-I had my fingers crossed!’ ?

Although as I suppose he slapped tariffs on Scottish Whiskey etc - relations are not good despite his links there.

It went well beyond suggestions. Allegedly, if you don't mind!

I sincerely hope - and expect, actually - our northern neighbours would knock Trump back and laugh. Although, there again, they might not have many good choices left either. We are both weaker separate.

Allegedly, if you don't mind!

Late January GE ?

Yeah. When the credit card bills start hitting the mats, and people suddenly feel the less well off they have become since 2016. Plus increased fuel bills because it's winter.

Even February could be risky.

And March sounds nice, but past two years is when the really nasty easterlies hit ...

Brexit has become Jarndyce v. Jarndyce. By the time it's settled, there will be nothing worth having. (With a nod to the Russian tactic as the Germans advanced 1941-1943 ...)

Thanks BCF! I was wondering if it was a legal thing.

Incidentally, I've just been updating my 83 year old dm (remain/lifelong Labour/hugger of Tony Benn) about what you lot have been saying on here!

Also Trump's strength of feeling is not for Ireland but for Scotland. To what extent has diplomacy been channeled in that direction?

That I do know. He is reviled up here, and the Scottish Parliament wouldn't touch him with a bargepole. They are super pissed off about the Prestwick Airport stuff www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49621836

cannot Larry The Cat is innocent, OK.

My cats regularly leave gacked up furballs on my bed, little piles of poo on the floor next to their litter trays, dead mice just where my bare feet will find them early in the morning and me in no doubt that they are trying to kill me by tripping me on the stairs. I sincerely hope Larry is not innocent of any of that

Also Trump's strength of feeling is not for Ireland but for Scotland. To what extent has diplomacy been channeled in that direction?
...
Although as I suppose he slapped tariffs on Scottish Whiskey etc - relations are not good despite his links there.

Trump is unreliable, albeit reliably unreliable (anyone with an ITIL badge will recall the brainache over known unknowns, and unknown unknowns ). It's his metier and part of his "business" persona. His strength is the promise behind him, which (for some) makes the risks worth taking. After all, if you played Hitler right, you could get a forest, a stately home, a few factories, and your choice of the booty as the Nazis plundered Europe.

It's clear that Brexiteers are getting anxious - something is bothering them about passing time. And unless I am wrong, that can only be because it's costing them something that is lessening their chances of achieving their aim. After all, if they were going to always win, then a few days, weeks, months, or even years, wouldn't matter.

It's one reason why Cameron was such a fucking idiot to give into the calls for a referendum. Another couple of years, and Leave would have lost. Admittedly we'd be in the reverse 52/48 position. But at least we'd still be in the EU without having to worry about A50 etc etc.

Returning to the theme that UK politics has changed and is still changing, the ultimate winners will be the politicians and parties that can grasp the new arrangements and make them work.

Regardless of whether UK politics morphing into more US-style politics is a good or a bad thing, it's happening, and happening faster than anyone might have imagined. So maybe now is a good idea to use those foreign "fact finding" trips for real, and see how other nations manage - in particular and especially the US. Because they are saddled with whatever government the needle lands on for the full term, plus a president who is there for good (impeachment excepted). So they have developed the necessary soft skills and channels to make it work for them. You don't put a man on the moon if your government doesn't work.

Darkart
IRA Fundraising events advertised on lamp posts in New York in the 70's was not very "allegedly"

You don't put a man on the moon if your government doesn't work.

They did that back in the 60s and have never repeated it. Back before neo-liberalism got the stranglehold (word used deliberately) it now has. Admittedly I am not familiar with US history, politics or presidents.

IRA Fundraising events advertised on lamp posts in New York in the 70's was not very "allegedly"

NorAid anyone ?

Plus the regular bunfights over trying to extradite IRA suspects once they had got to the US. Reagan was forced to concede a bit when he needed UK help with Libya as I recall, but the US default mode is "no".

Certainly in the 1980s, the UK - for all the home press soundbites - had to tread carefully with the US, as there was every possibility SCOTUS would find that they were freedom fighters.

Notice they are distinctly critical of the UK here:

www.nytimes.com/1992/01/13/world/us-court-blocks-ira-extradition.html

A Federal appeals court has blocked the extradition of a former member of the Irish Republican Army on the ground that a new treaty with Britain specifically aimed at I.R.A. guerrillas in the United States unlawfully singled him out for punishment.

But the ruling last week by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit may have the unintended effect of putting the former I.R.A. member, Peter McMullen, 44 years old, at greater risk.

The decision prevents Mr. McMullen's extradition to Britain, where he is wanted on charges of attempted murder for the I.R.A. bombings of British Army barracks in Belfast, Northern Ireland, and North Yorkshire, England, in the mid-1970's. Mr. McMullen is currently being held in a federal prison in Otisville, N.Y.

www.nytimes.com/1984/12/14/nyregion/us-judge-rejects-bid-for-extradition-of-ira-murderer.html

A Federal judge in Manhattan yesterday refused to extradite a member of the Irish Republican Army convicted of the murder of a British soldier, ruling that the slaying was a political act.

Admittedly I am not familiar with US history, politics or presidents.
It shows.

PMK

Pmk

The UK may have been a convenient English speaking 'landing pad' to Europe for the USA, and they may like our royal family, but there is a strength of feeling for Ireland that simply is not there for the UK.

And even then, the fascination over Meghan means they're less than impressed by the current seeming anti-Meghan UK stance, from what my friends have mentioned. DB says it's the only part of UK royalty that seems to raise conversation. When it does. Which reminds me of Eleanor Roosevelt: You wouldn't worry what people thought of you if you knew how rarely they did ...

Trump has not the first clue about Ireland. Seem to remember poor old Leo Varadkar having to explain patiently and in simple terms to Trump that walls were not a good thing in the case of the Irish border.

Dark has admitted they don't know something and has previously shown willingness to change opinions on new knowledge - pointing towards resources to learn would be much more in the spirit of this thread. I would like to learn more about the US-Irish history as well, like that article DGR just quoted, and about the IRA recruiting notices on lamp posts in New York from Listening. Are there any recommended books on the topic?