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Brexit

Westminstenders: Don't and Keep Living

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 23/10/2019 13:19

Status Recall as of approx 1

Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement (The WA) :
Currently parliamentary session blocked in its current form due to being nodded through (government accept defeat without vote). It can not be represented to the house without changes (which the EU will not allow - unless perhaps it reverts back to May's WA) or a 'substantive change of circumstances' (eg another party says they will support it and there is reason to believe Johnson now has a clear majority).

The Withdrawal Agreement Bill (The WAB):
The withdrawal agreement bill is purely about how the WA will be carried out in UK law. It passed its 2nd reading which is merely a indication of interest of support for the bill. The next stage is where amendments can be made and this is most relevant to the political declaration which accompanies the WA settlement.

This however has hit a road block due to the government recklessly and foolishly trying to push such an important and far reaching bill through in a ridiculous time frame, which no one could possibly give proper scrutiny to.

If Johnson wants a deal in the best int3of the country its an essential part of the process regardless of which side of the fence you sit. Failure to spot problems could leave us shafted by other countries later down the line.

The timetable is now under review and negotiation with Corbyn.

The extension with the EU:
The EU president has signaled he would support an extension. This is in part because issues in London mean it is highly unlikely the EU will be able to ratify a deal by next Thursday even if they have an emergency meeting. It's in their interests to extend in some way.

Going along with the Benn Act is the politically least risky option, though France are making growling noises about it.

Two issues spring up with this. The first is the issue of the UK having no EU Commissioner after 1st Nov and the second is the EU budget runs until 31st Dec 2019.

The Queens Speech:
The government as it stands might struggle to pass the QS especially with the DUP off side. It failing to pass is, in some ways, a good thing for Johnson. The speech was essentially a manifesto and blocking it is a good electioneering strategy. It also puts pressure on the opposition for a Vote of No Confidence.

There are already rumblings following the passing of the 2nd reading of the WAB and the EU signally they are open to an extension that some in Labour (including crucially Corbyn) do think they must agree to a GE in the autumn.

A Vonc is still unlikely to happen until the EU formalise the extension and the EU are unlikely to do this until its clear what Johnson's next move with the WAB is. Johnson meanwhile doesn't want to agree to a longer timetable as that ruins his do or die speech and facilitates an extension. So expect some brinkmanship over timings here. We might not get a formal extension approved until the wire.

The GE:
All Brexit is currently about is manoeuvring to win the next GE. It must be seen in this context.

Polling suggests that an extension without the WA is bad for Johnson and he is likely to lose support to the Brexit Party. There is an ever shrinking likelihood of the WA going through before 31st Oct, if its not impossible already. Thus Johnson needs to see if he can get the WA through very quickly after an extension but before a GE.

This reasonably lines up with Labour's problems. Before the WA goes through a GE looks bad for them with them haemorrhaging support to the LDs and the the Brexit Party.

If they are seen to facilitate the WA passing before an election then there may also be a sense of betrayal amongst their majority remain supporters but it might let them off with the Brexit Party threat particularly in the Midlands.

Meanwhile the SNP have an increasing desire for a GE. They look like they will clean up in Scotland and it might be their last chance now to stop Brexit. Similar logic applies to the LDs.

Thus the chances of a GE shoot up once an extension is granted, but the Cons and Labour have a mutual self interest in getting a deal done ASAP before a GE in many ways.

This of course would probably suit the French and therefore the EU.

Which is why a deal before 15th Nov and by the 15th Dec, isnt unrealistic. A GE might come before Christmas but I think both the Cons and Lab have something of an interest in letting the dust settle and getting new messaging in to head off threats from the LDs and Brexit Party. I'd be more inclined to say a Feb election tbh.

Anyway things may have changed since I started typing this up given how quickly things are moving.

But despite the headlines that Brexit is in pergortory it is now slowly rolling forward and now has some momentum behind it.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
22
Basilpots · 25/10/2019 07:19

Three pages of repetition and hyperbole.

Not unlike his tenure as PM then.

Sostenueto · 25/10/2019 07:24

New word today ' flextension'. For goodness sake! It is all such a farce now!
On radio 4 they are saying that postal votes may not arrive on time as no one knows dates and be prepared to vote in tents, sheds and garages as again, they may not be able to get enough polling stations in time.
Another 5 years of Tories will decimate the working classes! And the queues at food bank's very, very long.Angry

lonelyplanetmum · 25/10/2019 07:25

All the letter does is focus on the timing again and again rather than the substance.

If it is a good -then a statesmanlike leader would back up the deals substantive selling points - with detail.

It is bizarre. There are 61 days to Christmas. Eight weekends. Already some people are saying it's not long to shop and organise. So it's insufficient time to prepare a family Christmas but in the PMs opinion enough time to sort out his new deal.

It's like recommending a builder with a new plan for a shit extension. It's rubbish but will be done in time for Christmas. The extension will have subsidence and leaks and will be unsafe but hey they won't over run so it's the best job ever.

After 30+ years membership even the most brexity Brexiteer must know the content is more important than a few days here or there.

The opposition needs to shift the narrative back to something substantive. Why is there no snappy message to cancel out the 'get it done'

A Brexit is for life not just Christmas.
The time's not right
Get it done, but right
Get the best deal.
A Uturn is better than a bad deal
Slow and steady wins the race

Here is Johnson's letter in full just to show the repetitive Cummings narrative - nothing endorsing the merits of the deal.

Dear Jeremy,
Last week, I agreed a new Withdrawal Agreement with the European Union. This is a great new deal which Parliament could have ratified and allowed us to honour our promises and leave by 31 October. [timing] Sadly you succeeded in persuading Parliament to ask the EU to delay Brexit until 31 January 2020. [timing]

On Tuesday, the Commons voted for our new deal but again voted for delay [timing] and, even worse, handed over control of what happens next to the other EU member states.
I have repeatedly made clear to EU leaders since I became Prime Minister that I believe any delay [timing] to be extremely damaging for the country and my view has never changed that we should leave on 31 October. [timing]

However, it is clear from public and private comments of President Tusk that it is likely that the EU will offer a delay until 31 January, [timing] though it is possible that a shorter delay will be offered. [timing]
In our meeting yesterday you suggested that we propose a new timetable for getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) through Parliament.

This Parliament has, with your encouragement, voted repeatedly for delay. [timing] The vote on Tuesday was Parliament's last chance to get Brexit done before 31 October and it voted, again, for delay. [timing] I am extremely sceptical this habit will change and many will doubt that this Parliament will do anything other than waste more time [timing] and then, in January, ask for yet another delay. [timing]

These repeated delays [timing] have been bad for the economy, bad for businesses, and bad for millions of people trying to plan their futures. If businesses assume that this Parliament will stay, paralysed, refusing to take responsibility for month after month [timing] into 2020, it will cause misery for millions.
It is our duty to end this nightmare and provide the country with a solution as soon [timing] as we reasonably can.

The EU may offer only a short extension, say to 15 or 30 November. [timing] This would, obviously, be my preference but I was legally prevented by Parliament and the courts from suggesting this. In this circumstance, I assume you will reverse your vote of Tuesday and you will cooperate with me to get our new Brexit deal ratified so we leave with a new deal rather than no deal.

If the EU offers the delay that Parliament has requested [timing]- that is, we must stay in until 31 January - then it is clear that there must be an election. We cannot risk further paralysis. In these circumstances, the Commons will vote next week on whether to hold an election to be held on 12 December. This would mean that Parliament would dissolve just after midnight on 6 November.

If you commit to voting for an election next week (in the event of the EU offering a delay [timing] until 31 January and the Government accepting, as it is legally forced to do by Parliament), then we will make available all possible time between now and 6 November for the WAB to be discussed and voted through, including Fridays, weekends, the earliest starts and the latest finishes.

This means that we could get Brexit done before the election on 12 December, if MPs choose to do so.
But if Parliament refuses to take this chance and fails to ratify by the end of 6 November, as I fear it will, then the issue will have to be resolved by a new Parliament. An election on 12 December will allow a new Parliament and Government to be in place by Christmas.

If I win a majority in this election, we will then ratify the great new deal that I have negotiated, get Brexit done in January [timing] and the country will move on.

If you win a majority, then you will, I assume, implement your policy: that is, you will ask for another delay after 31 January 2020 to give you the time [timing] both to renegotiate a new deal then have a referendum, in which you may or may not campaign for your own deal.
It is time for MPs finally to take responsibility. More people voted Leave in 2016 than have ever voted for anything. Parliament promised to respect the referendum result. But Parliament has repeatedly avoided doing this.

Given this situation, we must give the voters the chance to resolve this situation as soon as reasonably possible before the next deadline [timing] of 31 January. We cannot risk wasting the next three months then this farce being replayed with yet another delay [timing] in January 2020 and still no way for the country to move on.

This Parliament has refused to take decisions. It cannot refuse to let the voters replace it with a new Parliament that can make decisions. Prolonging this paralysis into 2020 would have dangerous consequences for businesses, jobs and for basic confidence in democratic institutions, already badly damaged by the behaviour of Parliament since the referendum. Parliament cannot continue to hold the country hostage.

You have repeatedly said that once the EU accepts Parliament's request for a delay until 31 January, then you would immediately support an election. I assume this remains your position and therefore you will support an election next week so the voters can replace this broken Parliament.
I am copying this letter to the other Westminster political party leaders.
Yours ever,

Boris Johnson

Sostenueto · 25/10/2019 07:27

I wish there was a magic wand ( along with unicorns) that I can use to wave this shit all away for once and for all!

ContinuityError · 25/10/2019 07:50

Article in the Irish Times:

Bluster made British slow to perceive that EU solidarity bolstered Ireland with power

www.irishtimes.com/opinion/stephen-collins-london-s-next-u-turn-may-be-on-free-trade-1.4061720?mode=amp#.XbKQs5Xxeb8.twitter

Peregrina · 25/10/2019 07:53

I wish there was a magic wand which made the public wake up and see that they no longer want Brexit. Most polls think that more people are now for Remain, but not in sufficient numbers.

Gingerninja4 · 25/10/2019 07:55

Well new Tory mp here as longstanding one stood down be interesting see how she does ( unusual in that was 3 female one male standing to be elected (

Area is so blue normally cut it and bleed as thry had majority control of county ans town but past 12 months labour and lib dems members have joined the councils

NoWordForFluffy · 25/10/2019 07:56

I think most people never want to hear the word Brexit ever again. However, there's a lack of understanding that the only way to make it actually stop dead and not need to be talked about again is revoke. (It would be talked about, but wouldn't be the pressing issue it is now and will be for years.)

ContinuityError · 25/10/2019 07:56

Sounds like Government has pulled the “Get Ready For Brexit” ads.

lonelyplanetmum · 25/10/2019 07:59

Maybe we need the slogan

" Brexit isn't a magic wand"

Peregrina · 25/10/2019 08:01

I take it a Labour abstention on a vote for election would deny Johnson a majority?

Basilpots · 25/10/2019 08:03

If the experts are right and the talks drag on for years, the realisation may well dawn on Johnson, or whoever else might be in power in London at that stage, that a close trading arrangement with the EU is a far better option than the mirage of free trade deals with far-away places.

Closing passage from the piece linked by Continuity. I think this is likely where we will end up. FTAs with the rest of the world cannot overcome geography for ease of trade. All our materials for manufacture come from Europe. We cannot manufacture our goods out of pineapples however cheap and freely available they become.

mrslaughan · 25/10/2019 08:05

@BigChocFrenzy and @catfromjapan
The whole election debacle- I can't see it as anything other than intentional....... have I become to cynical?

It's a reason as much as anything for labour to oppose an election.

I may have to offer my services as a driver if it actually happens

lonelyplanetmum · 25/10/2019 08:12

I think this is likely where we will end up. FTAs with the rest of the world cannot overcome geography for ease of trade. All our materials for manufacture come from Europe.

In 2016 there was some experienced economist or trade lawyer on BBC 2. I can't remember her name. She was (very animatedly) emphasising you can't overcome the fact of geography.

The reality is that we have traded with France etc for centuries. Put simply- our neighbouring trading partners happen to be in a trading bloc. We need to trade with them. End of.

NoWordForFluffy · 25/10/2019 08:13

It actually is DD's nativity on 12 Dec. We aren't a polling station though. It's a church hall for our area, thankfully.

Ellie56 · 25/10/2019 08:18

Does anybody know how easy it is to change back from a postal vote to going to a polling station?

ContinuityError · 25/10/2019 08:20

In 2016 there was some experienced economist or trade lawyer on BBC 2. I can't remember her name. She was (very animatedly) emphasising you can't overcome the fact of geography.

You can if you’re Patrick Minford - just ignore the whole gravity effect.

prettybird · 25/10/2019 08:21

BJ is teaching the UK what "gaslighting" means and how it plays out Angry

According to the wanker BJ's letter, it is Corbyn's fault that BJ is going to paralyse government Confused

Just like an abusive husband to his wife: it's your fault that I'm hitting you. You made me do it Angry

Basilpots · 25/10/2019 08:22

Completely agree Lonely. Before all this hooha we desperately needed a part for the machine of a customer, it was needed quickly as it was costing £££’s in lost production. The European base of our supplier did not have this part available so it was sourced in US. From Europe we would get the part the next day at a cost of €50 from the US it was $800 and took three days.

It makes no sense to slow down and increase the cost of trading with our nearest neighbours.

ContinuityError · 25/10/2019 08:22

@Ellie56

You can fill out your postal vote and take it to your polling station on polling day.

Peregrina · 25/10/2019 08:23

My Church hall is a polling station, but at Christmas time, we get fully booked, with our own events - Carol services plus things like Christmas parties for the Scouts. It would be most inconvenient and we would probably have to turn the Electoral people down. I believe they could commandeer the polling stations, but that does not look good. However, the sheep who still support Brexit would probably think that's fine because it reminds them of the War.

Ellie56 · 25/10/2019 08:26

Thanks *@ContinuityError *

Peregrina · 25/10/2019 08:30

According to the wanker BJ's letter, it is Corbyn's fault that BJ is going to paralyse government

Absolutely No Mention of the three deals that the ERG stymied, without which we would have been out more than six months ago.

Dongdingdong · 25/10/2019 08:34

Eight weekends.

Eight weekends is bloody ages! Just get on with it.

And yes, Brexit is for life, which is why we NEED a general election to try to prevent it. The alternative is for Boris’s deal to pass and we’ll be out in January.

prettybird · 25/10/2019 08:36

Good to see that Ian Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh South who was the last Labour one standing in the 2015 GE in Scotland, has been re-selected despite Unite's opposition Smile

While I would like to see him replaced by the SNP candidate in the GE, he has been by all accounts a good constituency MP Smile - and tellingly, the local Unite branch still supported him Hmm