Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

Placemarking
Cat

You know, if you have a Labour MP, or a Conservative MP in a Remain area, it is worth emailing to ask them to vote for a PV.

It's worth an email. It really is.

Not in my constituency. Damien Moore doesn't give a flying fuck that we're - narrowly - remain. Every time I've emailed him he ignores everything I say and sends a 'party line' letter back.

I wonder how many MPs will manage to read the full WAIB? It sounds nigh on impossible. It genuinely shouldn't be allowed to be pushed through like this. It's gross negligence. And really should be criminal.

Parliamentary version of " come an' 'ave a go if ye think yer 'ard enough ".
Sigh.

Childish, isn't it bellini?

Hopefully enough MPs have read enough of the WAIB to have doubts and vote it down.

Where are we getting the info that it's not amendable at all? (I think I saw reference to that on the last thread.)

PMK

I may have got the wrong end of the stick, but what about that EUtax law that is coming in in January? If the motivation for pushing leave was to be sure we are gone before the EU tax law came into effect, what does the transition requirement to abide by new EU laws to Dec 2020 mean to those with shady taxes that want leave before the laws apply? Surely this is bad for them!?
Whilst i mostly lurk, these threads have been amazing for me, as a mostly forgotten Brit in the EU, with 'skin in the game'. I got my EU passport last month and the relief to me and my (already EU) kids was indescribable.

Actually, mulling this over, I think we need:

1. The WA / WAIB to fail because some Tory MPs can't vote for it;
2. A GE campaign where all opposition parties can run on the 'it's such a shit deal, even his own party can't back it' trail;
3. BoZo, having negotiated this 'amazing' deal is hamstrung and has to stick with it for the GE. To do anything else would smack of failure;
4. BXP will run on the 'no deal' ticket and split the leave vote allowing other parties to hopefully come first in relatively marginal seats.

Farage will never stand aside / have a pact now. That ship sailed.

Maybe there is still a sliver of a chance this won't go through if people (esp the ERG) really aren't happy with it.

1/3 labour voters voted leave so it’s not most and I think you’re underestimating the feeling up north in leave areas

People are furious

PMK.

@Sunshine1239 , I live in the North in a Labour area. The Leavers, while still there, have gone quiet. I suspect they are trying to work out if this WA 2.0 is a Brexit sell out or a path to tbe glorious Brexit-y future. It's neither and both.

I'd watch it ....

Economic impact assessment produced by Government is ridiculous - hardly includes anything:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/841010/EU__Withdrawal_Agreement__Bill_Impact_Assessment_.pdf

But I'm off to bed as I am not reading the damn thing tonight myself.

I don’t blame you-thank you for all your explaining with this, you really should be on the telly!

What I’m worried about is how many MPs won’t bother to read it and will just blindly vote for it because BJ tells them they have to or the country is going to implode.

I’m in a technically leave seat with a leave leaning labour MP in the north. The leavers I work with have either gone very quiet or changed their minds and are now open about that.

What I’m worried about is how many MPs won’t bother to read it and will just blindly vote for it because BJ tells them they have to or the country is going to implode.

I think they'll all read at least some of it (the bits which they're particularly worried about), but may not have time to read all of it, because BoZo doesn't want them to have time to analyse it, which is scandalous.

There are rumblings around suggesting that many influential MPs are reading it (and not liking it) and you can bet that the ERG will be having a chinwag beforehand to decide tactics. And if they're not happy to vote for it, then it's a gonner whatever anyone else does really.

I would imagine there will be some MPs who are analysing parts in full (if I were the opposition I think I'd have come to an agreement whereby it was divvied up and each section analysed by somebody, to then have a briefing today) rather than have many people try to read / analyse all of it.

The more he tries to ram stuff through, the more MPs seem to push back on it.

So, I don't think that many MPs will just do as they're told. They'll generally speak to others and gauge mood, even if they've not managed the whole thing (and that's a BIG ask anyway) themselves. Some will, obviously. Path of least resistance and all that!

The few leavers in my office are very sheepish. Apart from one who is a no deal head banger. I'm in the north.

Leave voting in laws haven't mentioned brexit for years.

Joe Owen of Institute for Government:

@jl_owen

Things given longer in the commons than the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill:

The Wild Animals in Circuses Act 2019

PMK, thanks red as always. Some sterling work being done on these threads!

PMK

My one Leave voting relative has rather unexpectedly applied for Irish citizenship. To which he is entitled.

I've never actually discussed with anyone how they voted. I've discussed Brexit and the shitshow going on, but not how people voted! I don't feel it's my business to ask / know.

Some people have told me, and I've hazarded a guess at others (like my mother!).

Maybe I'm unusual. I just think it's safer / more diplomatic not to know!

De-lurking to say I’ve just emailed my MP Lisa Nandy urging her to re-think her decision to back bill due to workers rights/enviro etc.

PMK

Thank red

The Leavers I know (in the South East and little Tories) don't want to talk about Brexit. They would much rather grumble about people using food banks who don't know how to budget and must have smart phones.

Meanwhile, we Remainers get out on the streets and protest. But we have to pander to the Leavers because that's democracy.