Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

Today's agenda for the HoC.

He does not have an impact assessment to give, simply because of that fact.

Yes he does - it’s here:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/841010/EU__Withdrawal_Agreement__Bill_Impact_Assessment_.pdf

But he may as well not bothered - so many impacts that it doesn’t contain.

"Interesting to hear from posters in Remain areas with Brexit Conservative MPs.
Why are they so much less fearful of their voters than Labour MPs in Lwave voting constituencies? Especially given we know the Labour vote was something like 70% Remain?"

I wonder if part of the problem is that they don't read all their correspondence. Many MPs have teams to filter out undesirable communications.

I cant remember which Pp brought it up, but good point raised upthread about the EU's new tax laws coming into effect in Jan.

Wouldn't dragging the leaving date out til the end of next rather defeat the purpose of Brexit?

Maybe why the ERG and the hedge funders behind them and certain members of the Government are still so keen on No Deal

PMK

Although to be fair, the Impact Assessment I’ve posted is from DExEu rather than the Treasury.

Costs for businesses in NI are outlined - it’s gonna be expensive.

Dmitry Grozoubinski@DmitryOpines

From the EU's perspective the great thing about Johnson's Irish Sea border is it makes figuring out the nightmarish bureacratic challenge of "tariff rebates" for GB-NI shipments entirely the UKs problem

The Single Market remains secured whether the UK figures it out or not.

So it's all kicking off at 12.30pm today?
This is the most lost and confused I've been all year. How is he able to steamroll this through?

If I was an MP I would be furious that Johnson is trying to railroad this very important bill, which has far reaching effects on the whole country, through in only three days, when there are hundreds of pages to read and analyse.

I would be especially furious after he has spent months twatting about, electioneering, proroguing parliament and instigating a totally unnecessary Queen's speech instead of concentrating on the deal and bringing it to Parliament way before now.

Impact Assessment says on NI:

The proposals will have an effect on all UK businesses that move goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, irrespective of the business’s size. Economic theory suggests that a ‘one size fits all’ approach for business trade requirements is likely to have a disproportionate effect on SMBs [Small and Micro Businesses] in particular. There would be both fixed and variable costs for firms as a consequence of the Protocol, consequently these costs are likely to be a larger proportion of SMBs’ operating costs and therefore disproportionately affect them compared with large and medium businesses. It is worth noting that a business’ size by number of employees is not necessarily indicative of its ability to adapt to and absorb additional costs, but it can be used as a proxy. Small businesses are usually defined as having between 10-49 employees and micro businesses between 0-9.

There were almost 66,000 registered SMBs in Northern Ireland in 2017, accounting for over 98% of all registered businesses.

Interesting also that Government doesn’t know how many GB based SMBs send goods to NI and so will have to complete customs declarations.



Gosh. I bet lots of DUP supporters are small business owners...

Ooo I've managed to make an empty post! Was trying to post this which I'm pretty sure I saw here anyway but it seems relevant

Third time lucky... ?

David Allen Green @davidallengreen

Fwiw, I happen to be an experienced former government lawyer and specialist in EU law, and I have actually read the entire withdrawal agreement and relevant EU legislation

It would take me at least two weeks to even have a general sense of all the implications of this Bill

Yes, Continuity, I suspect a lot of DUP supporters will be affected.

And that is one of the points of rushing this through.

It takes time for information to filter through, and for people to get worried/angry enough to contact their MPs.

Are the DUP worried enough to vote for a CU? Last I read, no.

The proposals will have an effect on all UK businesses that move goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, irrespective of the business’s size.

How many businesses just won't bother ? Leading to the very real possibility that some goods and services simply are not available in NI (with the extra costs to the citizens of having to travel to the mainland for services, or order goods from the mainland) and the risks of monopolies being created.

Time for that magic money tree again.

Or will we see a(nother) diaspora from NI into the Republic, or mainland UK, leaving a disproportionately impoverished society behind ?

If I was in the DUP, I'd be thinking about ways to redirect the previous bribe money to wavering Tories to avert what is going to be the worst possible outcome for Northern Ireland.

And to think, most people I was at school with found politics "boring" !

PMK

Oh, and the WAB confirms what we always knew - Parliament is, and always has been, sovereign.

(Also from that DAG Twitter thread).

inews.co.uk/opinion/remainer-mps-are-trying-to-thwart-brexit-with-endless-technical-disruptions-817741

If politicians continue with this they we force a no deal on the U.K. and the EU.

It's pretty shocking.

But, as we've said, its end result will surely be to add to the momentum of long-term unification with RoI.

Honestly, the DUP really were utter pillocks to back Brexit. The only silver lining is watching a bunch of reactionaries get served a bucket of cold sick.

I feel extreme anger towards anyone who still thinks leaving is a good idea/ the we won rhetoric is pathetic....Something really horrible has been unleashed - remainers do nothing but compromise, but it's really hard to compromise on core values of:
*- wanting a decent economy

• opposing racism
• wanting to listen & be guided by empirical evidence not 'feelings'
• loving being part of something bigger & better than the UK & making the most of the opportunities.*

I agree with all this but as I boyfriend of mine always used to say don't le the dumb shits get you down.You have to have faith that eventually the truth will come out.

I too have been trying to think of the positives in a Monty Python "always look on the bright side of life" manner...

1. Positive -Scottish independence for those who want this..

1. The EU can get on with its business without us being an embarrassing thorn in its side.

1. Hopefully the Brexit party will die a death although I have some doubts.

1. Sort of positive (?) the government can bring in belt tightening exercises without Leavers complaining (?).. which will cushion some of the economic impact.

1. There is no hard border between Ireland and NI.

1. We will be able to give some work to economic migrants from India, Philippines etc who need work when trade deals are eventually concluded with them which incorporate this as a requirement..

1. DH has private medical insurance with his job- so we are alright Jack as long as I stay married to him.

1. Trump may be gone soon and some of the US produce we start to rely on may be of an ok standard? It can't all be shit.

1. We are still geographically European.

10. The Brexit brigade are about to get a crushing disappointment because the feelz of empire glory pipe dream can not be delivered. Plus when we finally nail down the eventual EU trading agreement- guess what we will be complying with EU standards so the Leave brigade will feel truly anti climactic and perhaps secretly wonder if it was worth.

11. Eventually there will be a political kick back with a more left wing government and perhaps PR.

Errr... I can't think of anymore positives but I'm trying!

yellowallpaper - that’s an opinion piece from the Executive Editor of Conservative Home - don’t you think that just maybe he’s got an agenda to push?

Honestly, the DUP really were utter pillocks to back Brexit.

As they are learning - too late - the only way to preserve the Union was no Brexit at all. They were sitting on the wrong side of the branch they were sawing and are now in that cartoon physics situation whereby the branch has fallen but they are still in mid air as they haven't realised yet.

Wait till they look down.

I can suggest it (because I know it'll never happen) but they really should be headed to Edinburgh and getting very cosy with Nicola.