Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

Constantly behind on these threads! Anyway, just wanted to throw in that similarly to BestisWest (posted yesterday on last thread!), we have had a survey from our Tory MP. It's about a local issue but then asks about Brexit and voting intentions. It took all I had not to scrawl "fuck off" all over it.
I also wrote to MP yesterday morning saying that I did not expect someone elected and paid to represent me to vote blindly and not read the small print.
It's all pointless. MP is J Hunt. Who didn't reply to my last email. Fwiw, v remain area.

Morning all.

Seems like we have the conclusion of the debate on the Queens speech before we even start on Brexit.
Once again demonstration the utter contempt and folly the government had in deciding last week was a good time to have a new sitting.

calendar.parliament.uk/

Hugely important:

Raphael Hogarth @raphaelhogarth
This is interesting. The gvt can only conduct negotiations on the future relationship in accordance with a mandate approved by Parliament - and that mandate must be consistent with the current political declaration. I.e., a trade deal, not a customs union.

Steve Bullock @guitarmoog
It also appears to bind future Parliaments to a non-binding declaration.

It does not make it even slightly binding on the EU, of course. It couldn’t do so.

This could be overturned of course.

But it'd need to be turned over in parliament. Which could also be difficult.

Pmk

genuinely reading things this morning wondering why people are suddenly up in arms that a border in the Irish Sea means paperwork etc for goods travelling across. Some people really don't understand the concept of borders do they?

Pmk

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
Hate making calls on #Brexit, but have to. 60% probability BJ gets this wrapped up by Xmas; 40% he doesn't. Think today's 2nd reading of WAB will pass; Govt's preferred timetable won't; CU & 2nd Ref amendments won't. @BorisJohnson won't deliver by 31 Oct, but could shortly after

Peter Foster @pmdfoster
Feels about right, or perhaps a tad pessimist talking to ultra remain forces who seem pretty despondent about prospects for either 2nd ref or CU amendment. That said, history shows these votes can hold surprises yet.

Any future Parliament can repeal any law that isn't part of the international treaty

This has always been the issue with a PD for all sides in the UK - no Parliament can bind its successors
Of course, another weak minority govt after the GE may be unable to get the votes to repeal.

The EU may insist on keeping to the PD
Or, their negotiating aims may change, especially if different leaders are elected in several member states

• it really will depend on whether the EU have strong wishes in either direction, because they are the 300 lb gorilla.

"Taking back control" the Brexit way.

The constitutional lawyer interviewed on R4 Today by Nick Robinson was interesting. She and the male interviewee were basically saying this ‘deal’ overlays TM’s, so you have to read the two bills in parallel and cross-check for impacts/interactions. If Mps have divvied up the new bill and are reading in isolated chunks, problems will be missed.

Interesting to hear from posters in Remain areas with Brexit Conservative MPs.

Why are they so much less fearful of their voters than Labour MPs in Lwave voting constituencies? Especially given we know the Labour vote was something like 70% Remain?

Is it because of the fall-out from the coalition? We're/are they not worried about a co-ordinated challenge to their seat?

Is the fall-out from the coalition one of the factors (along with austerity) driving Nrexit?

Really? That's interesting. It's really not feasible to read / analyse the full document properly though. Not in the time given. A 3am reading isn't going to be as good as a less-exhausted one.

The EU can't get this done by 31.10. BoZo really needs to stop playing to the crowd and just be fucking realistic.

Farming Today - Brexit - with Ian Wright of the Food and Drink Federation spelling out in no uncertain terms exactly what this WA will do to his industry, esp in N Ireland. The poor man must be sick and tired of saying the same thing over and over again and being ignored.
IMO this prog is the only sane, balanced, fact based Brexit reporting on the BBC.
www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0009l00

thecat Tory Remainers seem far more tribal / terrified of Labour & being taxed - we've seen that on MN -
than Labour Leavers who seem more bothered about being "robbed" of their Brexit than by the prospect of a Tory govt

We can see this among MPs too:
the ex-Tory rebels like Soames falling into line and mostly voting for their former party,
whereas Flint & co vote for a WA that they know will let the Tories change the country with very harsh hard right policies

Reportedly the bill makes cross-references to other laws which must also be examined, to check the WA
120+ pages for the bill and 110+ for the explanatory notes, complicated text to examine - it's not a novel.

This all needs several days close scrutiny before MPs vote on it, including by the HoC Brexit Select Committee, or they'll be voting approval on the basis of blind faith in BJ

Sajid Javid:

"Trust in democracy and bringing an end to the division that has characterised this debate over the past three years,
is something that cannot be measured solely through spreadsheets or impact assessments."

Michael Deacon@MichaelPDeacon

"Nothing will restore trust in politicians like causing an economic crash by passing a bill we didn't even read"

At the next election the Tories will absolutely not be telling everyone that Corbyn would wreck the economy,
because all economic predictions are meaningless
and anyway some things are more important than money

Pmk. Huge thanks to Red and the regulars.

morning all. as usual huge thanks to everyone who contributes so eloquently and informatively. I am still confused, and so bloody angry that BJ et al think this can be railroaded through without any due diligence.

ODFOJ

(Oh Do Fuck Off Javid )

This is not going to go away. The divisions will not be healed. The country will be permanently poorer as a result of his actions - even if he personally will be better off

The only positive (for me) is that it beings Scottish Independence closer . But that's the ultimate "division".

Pmk and a massive thanks to Red and all contributors to these threads for keeping me so well informed and at least slightly sane.

PMK, as ever my thanks to Red & all other contributors.
I have a real sense of foreboding that I can’t shake off.

I haven’t gone away. Still lurking and reading.
Giving up my meds. Maybe would have done so anyway but the threat of them being unavailable precipitated my decision (they were on that list of unavailable drugs, another doctor online said they would likely be unavailable and they’re a controlled drug also used as a street drug so not likely to pick up elsewhere) after talking to my pharmacist decided to go for a controlled withdrawal (sounds a bit Brexity) rather than going cold turkey which could be quite nasty.
So I’m OK. It isn’t going to kill me either way.
My brain is working a bit better now so decided to risk posting although I still seem to have lost all my big words. Rather like Trump.
Not a lot to say except I am very disappointed with the Lib Dem’s attitude. Surely we’ve had enough of fence sitting MPs.
Then there’s the nit picking about voting for Corbyn. As far as I can see Labour are the only ones who have the slightest, and I mean very slight, chance of getting us out of this mess. Yes they’re shit in many ways but I can’t see any viable alternative.
Maybe I feel strongly as my MP is a died in the wool Tory twat who seems to have never had an original thought in his life. Bercow called him a sycophant. So I’ll vote but really it is a pointless exercise.
I read something by an academic somewhere about there being two types of people. Those who question and think about things and those with firmly entrenched ideas which cannot be changed.
My in laws were like that and it’s quite depressing to think that nothing and nobody can change the preconceptions of lot of leavers.

Its sunny. I'll read up later.

I really going to enjoy watching the wheels on Johnson's bus fall off.

Same applies to Jarvid. Shifty, slippery buggers. He knows it's going to be a bad economic forecast. He does not have an impact assessment to give, simply because of that fact.

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