Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

Some of us notice the unpleasant smell
I agree he's unpleasant and lies as easily as he breathes. That doesn't mean he isn't leading.

What BJ is doing is putting on the appearance of leading

Pontificating, bullying and blustering is not leading - although some of the gullible and easily led might think it is

....although I suppose by definition, "the easily led" will accept any old wanker to lead them - but that's not the quite thing as someone being a "leader"

Leading the country off the cliff.

If all things are in play, and we don't get an election this side of Christmas, how soon before the Tories remember when they can next change leader ?

In hindsight Theresa Mays mad election did one thing - secure her as Tory leader and PM.

Again, just shooting the breeze.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/22/operation-yellowhammer-brexit-preparations

The many thousands of civil servants who, like me, work on no-deal Brexit preparations know that Twitter is increasingly a more reliable guide to what’s about to go down than anything our bamboozled civil service bosses pass on to us. This is partly the result of a prime minister whose showmanship has turned zombie and started gorging itself on our institutions, and partly the result of the fact that we just can’t seem to get enough of it. The conventions of political theatre – not proper risk management – are now ensorcelling hundreds more staff into Operation Yellowhammer, the government’s planning for a no-deal Brexit, as Michael Gove so portentously announced to Sky News’ Sophy Ridge on Sunday.

(contd)

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/23/driver-arrested-after-39-bodies-found-in-lorry-container-in-essex

A murder investigation has been launched after
39 bodies were found inside a lorry from Bulgaria on an industrial estate in Essex.

A 25-year-old driver, from Northern Ireland, has been arrested on suspicion of murder.

The victims, found at the Waterglade industrial park in Grays, were all adults apart from one teenager, Essex police said.

Simon Nixon
@Simon_Nixon
·
22h
Is this the same No 10 source that said they'd never ask for an extension?
Quote Tweet

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
· 23h
No 10 source says, 'if Parliament votes again for delay by voting down the programme motion, and the EU offers delay until 31 Jan -- then we will pull the Bill, there will be no further business for Parliament and we'll move to an election before Christmas'
Show this thread

Do you think a postal vote would negate the need for voting i.d ?
If so, and we could agree some nice snappy text informing people of this, I could photoshop it onto an eye catching background.
I’m pretty much housebound, if not bedbound, atm so would happily spend a lot of my time splashing it all over social media.
It doesn’t need to be applied for until 11 days before an election so there would be plenty of time.

David Allen Green
@davidallengreen
·
Oct 22
Fwiw, I happen to be an experienced former government lawyer and specialist in EU law, and I have actually read the entire withdrawal agreement and relevant EU legislation

It would take me at least two weeks to even have a general sense of all the implications of this Bill

The QS will not pass
There won't be Voter ID at the next GE

..... but if the Tories win the GE, there will probably be voter ID for all elections from then on, local & GE.

Johnson could vomit on himself in the chamber on live tv and Kuenssberg would quote a 'Number 10 source' saying it didn't happen, it was a funny camera angle.

@woodpigeons I was wondering about postal votes, too. My DS just arranged one, and he had to provide NI number, and signature. I believe the signature is checked on his ballot paper as verification? I can't think how photo ID would work with postal votes.

How does it work in other countries, I wonder.

Bruno Waterfield@BrunoBrussels

Already hearing that election/cross-party timetable talk in Westminster is shifting dial to Tusk's recommendations

Which is to say, Feb 2020 Brexit, with break clause every couple of weeks and by written procedure

European ambassadors meet tonight for discussion on Tusk’s recommendations

• what Johnson has told him will be critical

It’s fair to say he’s jumped the gun, forced the issue,
chances for disagreement have risen and thus another #EUCO
So written procedure is still the plan but odds are shortening on a summit

So we might well not get sign off today - French expected to moan but not (YET) to drag everyone to Brussels.
Macron's Jupiterian is just rumour

EU increasingly hoping that Johnson can get elections within next three months amid fears his majority will not hold on WAB votes.
Some of the questions that will be discussed:

What happens when EU comes in on either side of the Benn Act request?
Will the EU get drawn in an internal political debate?

Is Johnson’s ‘second reading’ majority going to hold?
Can anyone bank on that?

Does Johnson want
a) the deal first and then elections?
Or b) does he want elections and then the deal?

If it is a) he will not want to go to polls with an amended salami sliced deal.
That would explain a short timetable

EU tending to assume b) - that PM wants time for an election and therefore the Benn act date.
But can get elections?

If no elections EU worried that everyone will be back in the same place in Feb 2020

Thank you Mship

R.I.P to the 39 victims of human trafficking found in a lorry container. What a terrible thing to happen and how awful for the emergency services to deal with it.

The opposition parties need to get the message across loud and clear to the EUCO that they will agree a GE once the extension is confirmed

Fortunately the EU officials can read English

A winter election is not ideal - but it's just as if not more cold in February - and the alternative (continued paralysis) is worse.

Does Johnson want a) the deal first and then elections? Or b) does he want elections and then the deal?

If he thought he was going to lose an election, there's a difference.
If he thought he was going to win an election, there is no difference.

"How does it work in other countries"

Autumn I had postal voting for EP elections here in Germany:

Germany has a national ID card (passport is an acceptable alternative) so every resident has ID
and every resident also registers their new address within 3 months, whenever they move house

So, I went to the village town hall with my passport and official residence statement
I filled in a simple form and they gave me the postal vote & prepaid envelope to take away

If I had wanted to vote in person, I would have had to show the same documents

@AutumnCrow it is possible to apply for a postal vote from overseas under certain conditions.
www.gov.uk/voting-when-abroad

R.I.P to the 39 victims of human trafficking found in a lorry container.

I caught sight of an AIBU (which wasn't) reporting some quite vile postings around the internet. Civilisation is a gossamer veneer on what are really animals with iPhones.

btw, "passport is an acceptable alternative" only for EU citizens

After Brexit, I will receive a photo ID card with my address on
... which I can't apply for before Brexit, because EU citizens can't have one .....🤦🏻‍♀️

Fortunately with the national residence system already existing, Germany does not expect it to take too many weeks after Brexit to supply photo ID to all its 120,000 UK expats

I see every prospect of British politics going the way of Turkey or Hungary. The mood of the country seems to be in favour of strongman politics, broadly in favour of a PM with a reputation for racist remarks, and which swallows blatant falsehoods from the media without so much as a hint of indigestion. "Gullible and racist" appears perfectly reasonable to me. You're welcome to provide a counter argument.

You get the politicians you deserve and I am afraid that Britain is no exception.

YY to that misti.
Plenty of reasons why BRITISH people are so gullible but reactions to the same event here in the U.K. and in France just shows the ocean there is between the two attitudes (not that the French are perfect btw. It’s just that I so happen to know them better!)

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/3725070-Westminstenders-Dont-and-Keep-Living?watched=1

New thread with my run done if position as of 1pm today.

Best to avoid Hatey Hopkins, even more so than usual
She may make another "cockroaches"-type comment for more clicks

Went out for my lunchtime constitutional and ended up sitting on a wall with a builder on his lunch break, discussing Brexit. (As I walked by he looked up from his phone and said "What do you think of this Brexit rubbish?" I said I thought it was shit and that our PM was a lying, duplicitous bastard.) Anyway. Apparently he and everyone he knows think that we are in a terrible state and that it's all the fault of the Conservatives but JC and Labour haven't helped and neither have all the other politicians. People in his business and (eg) in the aerospace industry are worried for the future and so on and so on. I'm mentioning it because it's the first spontaneous convo I've had with a stranger about Brexit and it wasn't one I expected, especially in the city where I work.