Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

mrslaughan how does parliament do its job when the gov't won't put the bill forward for debate with a timetabling motion?

@Dongdingdong No, none of us are suggesting his bill should just be waved through. At the moment there is - I think - some political momentum to work together by the non-Boris camp. Let parliament do its job and scrutinise and debate it.

I don’t trust parliament as far as I can throw them. And besides, if we carry on as we are then Brexit WILL happen in some shape or form. A GE gives us a chance to stop Brexit completely.

So you’d rather see Boris’s deal voted through and Brexit go ahead would you, without giving the public the chance to have another say?

Did I say that ? If I did, then it's what I'd rather. If I didn't it's what I'd rather not.

Or - interestingly - if I didn't say anything, you can't know what I'd rather. It's still entirely possible to comment on things - hell even rubbish them - but still agree with them. Contrariwise, it's entirely possible to praise something, but still be opposed to them. All skills of debate, rhetoric, language, and discourse that get a bye in the UKs state education sector, but which are rigorously insisted upon at private schools, where the entire thrust of poshboy education is "How To Win An Argument When You Are Wrong." - and you can bet Boris and his cadre of happy campers were top of the class every week.

(Still on for that political reporter gig. Thanks @FoxNews for your interest, but no, I don't, well, not before Thanksgiving. Thanks for the offer though )

@TheMShip -- yes I do realise that is the flaw in my plan - Boris has to bring it back - and maybe he won't...... a GNU could? Anyway we are all speculating like headless chickens and we should wait and see what Boris's next move is. But I do think running into an election could end up with a Tory/brexit party coalition- which would be disastrous

(which the Fatberg will win, because the British public is basically racist and gullible) Really?

Or - interestingly - if I didn't say anything, you can't know what I'd rather. It's still entirely possible to comment on things - hell even rubbish them - but still agree with them.

Your post implied that you’d rather not see a general election, which is now the only chance there is to stop Brexit. The alternative is Boris’s deal gets voted through and we leave the EU.

I've just heard the 'Get ready for Brexit on 31st October' ad on the radio. I wasn't sure if they'd carry on being broadcast.

Personally I agree that an election is the only way out of this now - I’m really starting to panic. Boris’s deal won a way bigger initial majority than I was expecting - so without a GE it looks certain to pass. I don’t want a soft Brexit - I want NO Brexit!

I don’t trust parliament as far as I can throw them. And besides, if we carry on as we are then Brexit WILL happen in some shape or form. A GE gives us a chance to stop Brexit completely.

That's using a lot of "if"s in the planning matrix. Or rather assuming that a lot of factors remain exactly as they were in 2017, 2015, 2010 and before. Personally I am much more wary of trying to just extend the apparent line of whatever graph people are holding in their heads as a way of knowing what is going to happen. Things have changed on the ground. People have died, People can now vote. There are 32 year olds who have never voted, or have never voted Labour for a start. Plus all the complex interactions between BXP, UKIP nationalist parties ...

Moreover, because it's impossible for any major party to contemplate - even in deepest secrecy - anything other than total victory, there can be no planning, no preparation, no negotiation for a hung parliament. Which is still the most likely outcome of an election. If we are "lucky" there will be an obvious path to power for some form of collaboration. But if we aren't we could just see a rerun of June 2017 and a minority government - most likely Tory - being propped up with some sort of loose C&S arrangement. "Loose" because only a fucking moron who can't be trusted with shoelaces would even contemplate anything more with the party that has fucked over everyone they have used to cling onto power.

Personally nothing would please me more than a situation where the Tories can only do anything with LD or Labour backing, except a situation where you'd need three parties to make a majority. Imagine a Tory-LD voting block of - say - 315 ... with any extra votes needed coming from the SNP, or PC or whatever is left of the DUP ?????

I've just heard the 'Get ready for Brexit on 31st October' ad on the radio. I wasn't sure if they'd carry on being broadcast.

But what are we actually meant to do? Put tape on the windows or something? Purchase Union Jack bunting? (Or St George's Cross bunting at this rate)

DGR In your latter scenario, Labour+LD+SNP+PC would have enough MPs for a majority ... you know, if 3 parties are fun, why not 4?

But if we aren't we could just see a rerun of June 2017 and a minority government - most likely Tory

We could - but then again we could also see a Labour/SNP alliance, a second referendum and Brexit stopped altogether. Isn’t it at least worth a shot?

I think my concern with an election is that it becomes single issue, and is muddied by the propaganda from number 10 that the "news" media just regurgitates. With the very real risk that we get through a really nasty divisive election campaign, and end up in exactly same place with a hung parliament.
I am Not constitutional expert - or have much info on the way the opposition could influence parliament. But there has been talk of motions to take control of business through to the GNU - I personally think that's a better avenue to explore, than to agree to an election just because you think it would like bad to cite it down (as reported is JC's thinking in one media outlet today)

Your post implied that you’d rather not see a general election,

No. People thought my post implied. Dangerous games, assumptions.

Besides, what I do - or do not want - is of supreme indifference here, or indeed real life. The only power I have is to vote when it is asked of me. And I get no say in that whatsoever.

In the meantime, with time on my hands, and whatever gifts I was blessed with by whatever creator may or may not exist, hanging out here and commenting, citing, and trying to think out loud may have the double bubble of saving on therapy, keeping DW sane, and spreading fact and analysis to counter the deluge of nonsense currently keeping HMS Brexit afloat.

I reserve the right to change my mind at any time, ideally with justification, but sometimes on intuition or not so easily expressed sentiment.

I'm also happy to be paid by the word

My view remains that we had an election in 2017, the FTPA remains the law of the land, and that parliament should get on with negotiating an acceptable compromise based on what people voted for two years ago (they voted for hung parliament, which implies that all sides need to compromise).

So if there's likely to be another election is there any point of passing (or not passing) the Queen's speech this week?

And why is no one saying if Bozo the Clown had not wasted so much time electioneering/proroguing/ introducing an unnecessary Queen's speech/having tantrums his so called deal could have been brought to Parliament long ago and not days before the deadline? Stupid twat.

DGR In your latter scenario, Labour+LD+SNP+PC would have enough MPs for a majority ... you know, if 3 parties are fun, why not 4?

Bring it on !

Life rarely works out fair. But sometimes wars must end. Sometimes odd victories are had on the way. It would be a just reward for the past 3 years shitshow if - having had the chance to address the FPTP system that most people saw as unfair - politicians are bound into a torture chamber of their own making by having to respect the will of the people and compromise. Big time, every time.

I'd consider it a cherry on the cake if in the midst of such an arrangement, Labour and Tories suddenly discover what a wonderful thing proportional representation is, but are unable to actually put it into practice because they haven't got the majority needed.

Meanwhile, I'll keep practising my Meme. I think I'll need it. It's a great language if you have a smartphone. Just load a deck of slides and the world really is your oyster.

@barnum I think you put a special mark on your door if you want the bad brexit to pass you by, and let only the good brexit waft in.

Stencils for this special mark are available by filling in the coupons in the Sun, Daily Express and The Lady.

michaelrosenblog.blogspot.com/2019/10/alice-in-wonderland-visits-number-10.html

which the Fatberg will win, because the British public is basically racist and gullible) Really?

Yes, really.

I see every prospect of British politics going the way of Turkey or Hungary. The mood of the country seems to be in favour of strongman politics, broadly in favour of a PM with a reputation for racist remarks, and which swallows blatant falsehoods from the media without so much as a hint of indigestion. "Gullible and racist" appears perfectly reasonable to me. You're welcome to provide a counter argument.

You get the politicians you deserve and I am afraid that Britain is no exception.

Does anyone know who the next speaker will be?

'I am Mogg,' said the sneery cat, 'for I am the cat that purrs beautifully.'