Westminstenders: Another day of fear and toil

[RedToothBrush]

In a move that surprised no one paying attention, Bercow refused to let Johnson put the WA back to the house today after it had already been presented to the house on Saturday.

This move upset the government but was entirely predictable.

This means that the only way the deal can move forward is through the WA's implementation bill (the WAB). It was published for the first time tonight (all 100 pages of it) and it will be presented to the house tomorrow.

In a lightning fast timetable parliament will be asked to scruntise it. This of course is reckless in the extreme for such an important piece of legislation. The speed at which it is being forced through is the thing that looks most likely to ruffle feathers.

The government is still trying to pretend it can make the 31st October deadline and leave by then. The reality is there isn't enough time for parliament to pass the necessary legislation and the EU will need to also ratify the deal, which in a best case scenario won't happen until next week with an extraordinary EU meeting to do so. This is much more likely to occur the week after at the earliest.

The reality is the EU need an extension themselves which is why we are very likely to get at least a short technical one and remain in the EU beyond next Thursday. It's in the UK and EU's interest if we do want to get a deal done.

Everything that Johnson does though is about optics ahead of a GE. It has to play it all as if he has been prevented from leaving as he promised.

We wait to see the pieces of a deal fall into place. It is in progress now finally it seems. For better or worse.

www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/british-journalists-have-become-part-of-johnsons-fake-news-machine/

For give me if the above link has already been posted. It's a damning read of the MSM's take on the current government and Brexit.

So now we are hearing Labour will back an election, if we get an extension....... but we could still no deal right? At the end of the extension, and then the Benn act doesn't apply....... so why would they?

I really enjoyed that article too @placemats. Not news to readers of these threads, but a good summary of the problems and naming the main offenders even.

You might like this one - lines up all of Diana Ditch's lies from yesterday:

infacts.org/6-more-porkies-and-6-more-fishy-promises-from-johnson/

@mrslaughan I think the logic is that Brexit has not happened, therefore the Brexit party is a vote splitting factor on the right. There is very little chance of a Labour majority according to current polling, but a hung parliament where the remain/ref supporting parties are the largest grouping is a possibility.

Thanks for that Mship

In response to a question, he said that Revoke wasn't an option because "those that hadn't voted before and had voted in the Referendum would never vote again" confusedand that they would be really pissed off

Theresa May trotted that out last year. It's rare a single comment can provoke incandescent rage, but that did. It's the political equivalent of seeing new customers getting a 25% discount, while you've been loyal for years

If people treated their politics like their car insurance and shopped around every election, we wouldn't be in this mess.

I'm hoping that part of the confusion pollsters are experiencing (bless 'em) is because there is an ongoing sea-change in politics, and people are starting to realise their vote isn't beholden to any single party.

I would expect the EU to grant the length of extension requested by the UK under the terms of the Benn Act, can't see why they'd do anything different, it could be "flexible" but should run until end of Jan 2020.

If that happens, "No deal" is definitely out before then. "No deal" would still be possible at the end of the transition period unless Parliament legislates in the mean time to make it not possible. So a Johnson government with a Commons majority after an election could potentially "No Deal" but my bet is they wouldn't. Why do I think that? Well, after 3 failures to pass WA Mk1 which came to be known as the May Deal we now have first stage approval for WA Mk2, the Johnson Deal.

If we see parliament continue to give approval to the Johnson Deal at the remaining stages, then Leaving on "No Deal" terms after that seems unlikely. Johnson will have invested his own political capital in the deal and it would seem v. odd to back away from it. Its sort of the mirror image of Labour winning an election, negotiating a different deal and then campaigning against it, IMO.

Totally get why MPs want to preclude the possibility of "No Deal" at every stage, I think in that regard giving assent at 2nd reading last night was actually helpful.

Mark Gatiss @Markgatiss Boris Johnson's Drag name: Diana Ditch.

I am starting to hope for a winter election. Mostly because the student vote can be mobilized and more likely to be at home rather than university which could have more of an impact on swing seats.

@DGR "Hello FatFighters"

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Dawes#The_FatFighters_group

I hope the students do mobilise and get out and vote along with everyone else who will vote to keep the toxic Tories out.

Thank you Mship. I’ll check my sources more thoroughly in future.

If we see parliament continue to give approval to the Johnson Deal at the remaining stages, then Leaving on "No Deal" terms after that seems unlikely. Johnson will have invested his own political capital in the deal and it would seem v. odd to back away from it. Its sort of the mirror image of Labour winning an election, negotiating a different deal and then campaigning against it, IMO.

This is very naive and shortsighted.

A FTA is achievable but not by the end of 2020. And to add to that, the actual deadline is not really December 2020 but July 2020, at which point the transition extension must be requested if one is required (and it will be required).

A transition extension will also need to be paid for. This means that if the WAB is passed, negotiations will soon need to start on the price of an extension. How is Johnson going to sell a $10bn pa bill to his backbenchers?

This deal makes no trade deal highly probable. (Citizens' rights and NI would be protected though).

I am starting to hope for a winter election

Well it will certainly provide some raw data for folk that like to look at all variables when it comes to winning elections

Which is one factor that could pretty much invalidate all and any polls. The UK hasn't had an election out of spring.summer since 1974 ?

3 weeks is a long time in meteorology

There is a lot to be said on all sides for finding some reason to gently push any General election out until March 2020 at the earliest, at which point you may as well be slightly phil o'sophical about it and try and airbrush 2017 from history (I bet the Tories would like a shot) and pretend we're actually going for the May 2020 election we would have had under the FTPA.

The counter-argument to that (from the Brexit universe) would be that's a little to dangerously close to creating a narrative that allows Remainers to push for a Brexit reset and increasingly find support for challenging That Damn Referendum.

Obviously, if there were to be a runaway Tory win, all would be swept behind. But I don't think the Tory party has anyone of the stature needed to gamble at that level. Mrs. Thatcher would have jumped at the chance. Even John Major surprised us with his cojones (as a total aside, I read somewhere a brilliant article saying that Theresa May was doomed from day one by dint of being a woman, and that there was no way she'd be "allowed" to sort Brexit out, regardless of all else. Not of immediate importance, but I would warn that if we do get Brexit of any form, that will be used as another reason to continue reversing the gains of the last 100 years. Female suffrage won't be removed, of course. Well, not explicitly. But notice how Boris' voter requirements will automatically affect women more than men ....)

Today, I've decided to identify as a political commentator. Quick note to all media outlets: I'll work for 50% of whatever you are paying the current incumbents and can guarantee a better return on your investment.

I'm of Lewis Goodall's view - it's time for a GE.

news.sky.com/story/sky-views-an-election-will-be-cleansing-and-make-brexit-resolution-easier-to-achieve-11842604

For the first time an election might actually work as a means to solve the Brexit crisis. At last, both main parties have serious, credible Brexit policies from which voters can choose. It’s time we accepted the inevitable and fast.

For remainers who think you have the govt exactly where you want them, that you can inflict defeat after defeat. Think again. Your position of strength is in fact one of ultimate weakness. The deal has its own inevitable gravity. Without an election, it will eventually pass.

Even if the election results in a hung parliament, it will have a better chance of ending the impasse than this one. Whipless MPs will be replaced with new ones signed up to their party’s approach. Parties will be more unified and act as blocs more than they do now.

And if Labour is worried about going for an election now consider the alternative: A deal which, in the end, after more drift, gets passed. Johnson gets a bounce for a spring election, Lab gets blame for Brexit delay from Tories and for not doing enough to stop it from Lib Dems.

In other words, it is absolutely and completely in Labour’s interests to have an election before Brexit is completed. This is probably the last moment to ensure that.

So now we are hearing Labour will back an election, if we get an extension....... but we could still no deal right? At the end of the extension, and then the Benn act doesn't apply....... so why would they?

So what’s the alternative - Labour sit back and do nothing, allowing the deal to go through?

Johnson will have invested his own political capital in the deal and it would seem v. odd to back away from it.

Well Theresa May did just that ....

And if Labour is worried about going for an election now consider the alternative: A deal which, in the end, after more drift, gets passed. Johnson gets a bounce for a spring election, Lab gets blame for Brexit delay from Tories and for not doing enough to stop it from Lib Dems.

In other words, it is absolutely and completely in Labour’s interests to have an election before Brexit is completed. This is probably the last moment to ensure that.

Precisely.

To lighten the mood.

twitter.com/noshabashaukat/status/1186886355596562432

In other words, it is absolutely and completely in Labour’s interests to have an election before Brexit is completed. This is probably the last moment to ensure that.

Of course it totally suits Boris agenda to see a head of pressure build up in the MSM against Labour. I'm wary of "journalists" that make assertions they realise are playing into one sides narrative without acknowledging it upfront ...

As Ian Hislop pointed out in his recent - excellent - amble through "fake news". Consuming news should be an active - ideally inter active - process. Not merely swallowing everything put in front of you like some indiscriminate current affairs glutton.

The bill was only at 2nd reading...... they should be working at that, opportunity to put amendments the mean we MAY end up with a brexit (customs union etc)that doesn't fuck over 99% if the population - though about half of that 99% may deserve it.....

Of course it totally suits Boris agenda to see a head of pressure build up in the MSM against Labour.

So you’d rather see Boris’s deal voted through and Brexit go ahead would you, without giving the public the chance to have another say?

I hope the Tory party has hired a MemeMaster to connect with all those kids that are simply gagging for a bit of blue

I've started learning Meme, as DS is fluent, and it's all he posts in nowdays. I mean Italian, French and Spanish are OK in the main, but the beauty of Meme is that it's international.

I think I've got this right ....

@Dongdingdong No, none of us are suggesting his bill should just be waved through. At the moment there is - I think - some political momentum to work together by the non-Boris camp. Let parliament do its job and scrutinise and debate it.
An election is a diversion tactic on the part of Boris et all, to stop that.

It would be better if there was a chance to attempt to amend the WAIB, DGR, but that appears to be off the table now. I don't see any other feasible way forward than a GE. My preferred method would be via VONC with first an attempt at a GNU to ask for a long extension but that is highly unlikely with the LDs and SNP gunning for a GE and the independent Tories not willing to have JC as PM.