Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

He has to leave office after two terms, whether he wants to or not

Says who?

Trump doesn't obey the law.

Plus the plan is to install one of the family as his puppet anyway.

You might want to look at Russia and how Putin can't serve another term as president under the constitution too. Except we all know he will. This problem comes into effect in 2024 (which coincidentally will be the same year as Trump has the same issue if he wins reelection - which I think he will)

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#targetText=The%202024%20Russian%20presidential%20election,on%20Sunday%2017%20March%202024.&targetText=The%20term%20limit%20established%20by,elected%20to%20a%20new%20term.

Trump is about establishing a family dynasty and dismantling democracy. He won't leave office willingly.

The Kennedy and Bush families were too, but it didn't work out the way they expected. Especially not for the Kennedy's.

Well we know what Putin will do. He will go back to being 'Prime Minister' again.

Trump will not last another term. One way or another, he will be defenistrated.

Beth Rigby@bethrigby
Bit of disquiet over attempts to race thru WAB
^MP texts: Maastricht took 40 days to pass. WAB is “more serious piece of legislation”

• Bill pub’d this eve so MPs have to read overnight. “Looks & smells like it’s being railroaded thru” which they say is “reckless & irresponsible”^

Putin was somewhat younger than Trump at the start of his regime. Not sure I see that people will fall for any Trump juniors. Not really comparable to Russia as Russia, as opposed to USSR, was a much newer country in its current entity.

I really hope this unseemly rush is what puts the kibosh on BoZo's attempts to railroad.

I can see him just rattling the moderates with his actions.

"Trump is about establishing a family dynasty and dismantling democracy. He won't leave office willingly. "

He's using illegal means to trash Democratic opponents
The Democrats still haven't got their act together - many still don't acceot this is so serious that they need to drop the egos and in-fighting
Despite the opinion polls on him, I'm worried he'll win again - looks likely.

Even if he doesn't, he's left a legacy to harm democracy, such as stacking judges
and established a new, openly poisonous rightwing discourse that wields racism & xenophobia very effectively

The GOP have seen that a populist demagogue can win, where their more traditional conservatism - e.g. Mitt Romney - couldn't,
that previous GOP candidates rejected the poisonous rhetoric - and some lost

I'm hoping they won't find another performer who is so effective

However, Trump's success was due mostly to the hidden rightwing thinktanks funded by oligarchs / Big Biz, to people like Bannon, to Fox News and Breitbart
They've now metastised in the USA

For the GOP, it's all about the money, the very rich getting richer, even fewer rules for businesses
So they'll find another performer, whether a junior Trumper or somone else, who'll make this happen again.

Does that post I made even begin to make sense?

Alex Wickham's tweet is interesting.

The transition timetable should be incendiary. Whether it will be is another matter.

And if Johnson is prepared to stuff the WAB, he must think he's done enough to mop up the Brexit votes, I guess.

Trump has lost the suburban women. That ought to be enough to swing it against him provided the idiot Dems don't choose a "Socialist" and the Russians don't find a third party stooge to fund.

All this Trump Illness stuff - does anybody have a link about it ?
Just that I've not seen mention of it

Says who?

Meh - it simply won’t happen. And even if he did stay longer than two terms (which he won’t) he still wouldn’t be in power for as long as Brexit and its ramifications! There’s a lot of things to worry about at the moment but this isn’t one of them.

The BXP's campaign stating what a failure the Tories have been at successfully Brexiting

I don’t understand this. I can see why Nigel Farage is trashing the deal, because he doesn’t want to see the end of the Brexit Party, but I’m sure most leavers will be happy with the deal since it is a hard Brexit. A small number won’t be (the no dealers) but the vast majority will.

The GOP/Russia/whoever hit the jackpot with Trump because of his personality type: extreme narcissism and lack of morality. Not sure that his offspring are like that? Barron is a bit young to tell?

Just watching Caroline Flint on C4 news - the way she’s talking about Boris’s deal, you would honestly think she was a Tory if you didn’t know. Unbelievable! I like her.

Yes. tobee.

I don’t understand this. I can see why Nigel Farage is trashing the deal, because he doesn’t want to see the end of the Brexit Party, but I’m sure most leavers will be happy with the deal since it is a hard Brexit. A small number won’t be (the no dealers) but the vast majority will.*

I don't understand why you don't understand. If we have a GE before Brexit, the BXP will make a MASSIVE deal about the Tories' failure to Brexit and saying that they would do what the Tories had failed to do. That will absolutely be their pitch.

I like her.

I’m sure anyone who wants to see Boris’s deal voted through will think she’s great. Personally I’m not one of them!

I'm not sure Trump could retain the mental capacity to carry out much in the way of policy in his 2nd term,
especially not to force through a 3rd

His 2nd term could be like the final years of the decrepit Brezhnev in the USSR,
in which case it would be those around him - family ? - who become the real rulers

Alternatively, as he goes downhill, he might want to take the whole world down with him in a fit of rage

the BXP will make a MASSIVE deal about the Tories' failure to Brexit and saying that they would do what the Tories had failed to do. That will absolutely be their pitch.

Do what though? I don’t think you could have a much harder Brexit WITH a deal. And the vast majority don’t want to leave with no deal. I think most leavers will see Boris’s deal as a success, so why would they vote for the BXP?

Meanwhile, Rees-Mogg suggesting a crackdown on protests, following the 'shouting at me and my child' stunt:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-suggests-crackdown-20668018.amp?twitterr_impression=true

My goodness.

*attacks on the right to gather/protest
*attacking the role of the Speaker
*talk of legislation to ban undermining of government legislation

It's all gone pretty authoritarian!

Trump never had any mental capacity - where do these stories of deterioration come from ?

Our best chance of avoiding a Tory win is Farage taking a lot of votes from them

BXP vote distribution is basically UKIP's, so it won't bring them more then 1-2 seats unless they get above 20%
They probably need about 25% to get 20 or so seats and at that level they'd probably rob the Tories of a majority

Farage certainly has a potential pool of voters for a No Deal policy
So BJ might move to No Deal, if Tory polls show Farage is making more inroads on their vote than the LDems

The hard Brexiter core - maybe an alarming 30% of voters - want No Deal because they don't want any compromise whatsoever with the EU
and think they don't need to trade with it afterwards, or that WTO would suffice

They don't want transition, because that's longer under EU rules
They may not understand the NI frontstop, but they know it was a concession by BJ and they won't accept any concessions

Oh, social media is full of it. Listenjng.

To be honest, I'm not sure how much credence to give it.

I don't know the origin point.

I think the main thing about the Brexit Party is that it might split the Tory vote and thus let s Lib Dem or Labour candidate through.

I think so much of what Johnson is doing is designed to appeal to this core.

Personally, I think he's done enough to woo them.