Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

We'll almost certainly get an extension, Fluffy. At least 3 months.

Realistically, No Deal is off the table - even if Johndon is keeping the pressure up.

The EU are hanging back with the length of the extension to see how the votes go.

If Johnson gets it through, it's likely to be 3 months.

If a PV miraculously gets added, it might even be longer.

If it gets voted down, it would almost certainly be long enough for a GE.

But, whatever, No Desl is No More.

The WA was designed by the ERG to remove everything that might hinder a US FTA.

Absolutely agree with this.

I agree that a GE - as soon as we have an extension - is the only chance of halting Brexit

BUT that's only because Brexit is now a 99.9% certainty without a GE

A GE gives maybe a 5% chance of Labour forming a govt, on their own or with support from other parties

We are going to have a GE sometime, so is it better to have one before Brexit and at least have a chance of stopping it ?

Danger is:
If the Tories win they might prefer to No Deal than go for the WA
Depends on which Brexit policy BJ / Cum thinks will do better in a GE

If all the legislation has passed by the time the extension is given it's too late to stop.

@BigChocFrenzy

I agree about the "American-first" FTA, regardless of who is in the White House. I was merely pointing out that the authoritarian trends at the moment have been encouraged and driven by Trump. The damage is done, but we still have a chance of limiting it for the next generation.

I agree - Trump is only for a relatively short time. Brexit is forever!

You aren't paying attention if you think this. Trump is about establishing a family dynasty and dismantling democracy. He won't leave office willingly.

Laura Kuenssberg@bbclaurak
Hear on current govt plans they hope to push Brexit bills thro by getting MPs to sit til midnight tmrw and Wednesday, then hope to finish this stage on Thursday so the legislation goes to the Lords on Friday

That’s a hell of a timetable and may well by rejected by MPs, but there is also chat about a ‘guillotine’ - ramming everything thro super fast some Tory nerves that would look aggressive to those who want to back the deal but are wobbly

Interesting moment this - Johnson's govt has a better chance than May ever did of getting deal thro + in govt there's a sense they probably have the numbers to get it thro, but they might trip up over process of doing so because of determination to hit deadline

And of course, amendments might go against them in a big way - fewer Tories will back it this time, but if SNP backs customs union for as seems possible, then govt might not be able to hold that off - in that case, No 10 will likely pull the bill and push button for election

Christopher Hope@christopherhope
^NEW MPs will investigate the role of the Speaker after Conservative MPs' unease about Mr Bercow's behaviour over Brexit.
Sir @bernardjenkin tells MPs "my committee will be holding a hearing on the role of the Speaker - somewhat in the light of the experience of recent months".^

If we're prorogued when the extension is given and it's not 3 months, how does anyone suggest parliament fulfils Benn? Clue: we can't.

Maybe the best we can hope for is a PV on HOW we brexit. Would Corbyn's followers swallow that? Personally I'd vote for a cabbage over BJ atm.

" No Deal is No More"

Only until the end of the extension
If the WA doesn't pass, he could then No Deal on 1 February

If the WA is amended, BJ would probably withdraw it
Hence I expect the ex-Tories and Labour Leave MPs will vote down the CU amendment and pass the WA this year mostly as is - for fear of later No Deal.

Sir @bernardjenkin tells MPs "my committee will be holding a hearing on the role of the Speaker - somewhat in the light of the experience of recent months"

Hmmm

I think vote for the bloody deal, and push for a very soft Brexit rather than pushing for a GE and ending up with no deal.

The May deal was more pro European than the current BJ deal and if hadn't been for Remain MPs digging their heels in and insisting we revoke A50 we would be closer to Europe than we will be with the current deal. Messing about further will end up with no deal which will be a total disaster.

It's time to stop playing politics before we end up with a disaster for the whole of the U.K. and the EU.

Tony Blair and David Cameron messed up the whole thing and created all this EU antagonism. They have a lot to answer for.

He won't leave office willingly.

He has to leave office after two terms, whether he wants to or not

If the Tories win they might prefer to No Deal than go for the WA

Yes it’s a risk but one that’s absolutely worth taking. It’s now or never!

Just watching Caroline Flint on C4 news - the way she’s talking about Boris’s deal, you would honestly think she was a Tory if you didn’t know. Unbelievable!

Alex Wickham@alexwickham
NEW: Boris Johnson's allies are confident they can defeat customs union and second ref amendments

— whips more worried about losing programme motion over inflammatory timetable
— and an amendment seeking to block a WTO exit at end of transition period

Johnson's top team is divided over what to do if a customs union amendment succeeds

— some saying the PM should suck it up, proceed with the WAB and overturn CU later
— others saying he should pull the WAB, extend, have election

The election argument made by some senior aides goes

— if WAB is blocked or amended then agree an extension that gives time for an election but not a ref
— EU say extension is conditional on UK holding a democratic event
— so Labour can't stop election

— Government sources said this scenario would put the UK on course for a general election at the end of November

— Conservative Campaign Headquarters has been put on full election footing, with ministerial aides briefed on key campaign messages

Govt source says the Tories would then campaign claiming

— Johnson got a deal with the EU that his opponents said was impossible
— he removed the backstop
— that Labour and Parliament blocked Brexit from happening

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/boris-johnson-customs-union?__twitter_impression=true
Boris Johnson's Allies Say There Will Be An Election If His Brexit Deal Is Softened By MPs
Downing Street has been divided over what to do if Parliament tries to add a customs union to the deal the prime minister struck with the EU: accept it and deliver Brexit, or delay and go for an election.

It has always been about the next election not about leaving the EU...

Trump is highly likely to win the 2020 election
because the Democrats have nobody who can beat him at his own game.
Impeachment might hurt - he's railing against the constitution now
BUT
So long as the GOP stays where it is politically, destructive Brexit is all too likely

Trump might be about trying to establish a dynasty but will he be able to do it? Many have tried before but not many have succeeded.

Their Lordships cannot be guillotined. They will amend then send it back.

I am not convinced that Trump will be well enough for another full blown presidential campaign. His deterioration is getting quite noticeable.

Now if only Oprah or Michelle Obama would stand! I must be naive but I really think most people now are much more aware of the benefits of remain and would be likely to vote according to which party offers them that chance.

I don't think Trump's health will hold out another 5 years, not given his increasing decline.

And what if there isn't anything which means an election has to be called? BoZo would have go limp on.

We're in worrying Boris bounce territory, unless the BXP can hoover up enough votes to let the opposition in (the BXP's campaign stating what a failure the Tories have been at successfully Brexiting).

Labour were in a dreadful place in the polls before 2017. Aided by a right wing press screaming their anti-Corbyn heads off. I don't think it was just May's wooden electioneering style and Corbyn being good at the hustings, which helped May lose her majority.

Not sure Trump is as nailed on to win a second term as I thought earlier in the year. Due to his declining health. If the gop don't see that he will definitely win for them I wouldn't be surprised if they dump him. Maybe he won't even stand?

I think if the bill was voted down, we'd be straight to a GE - and I think the EU would extend accordingly - no point in adding more panic.

But ... I think Johnson could well win a GE, which would then take us back to either No Deal or his Deal depending on how he campaigned.

And I guess that's another reason why this WA will probably pass.

My top Hope is that the scrutiny isn't rushed (despite Johnson's efforts) & it begins to look a bit shaky & a PV is attached.

However, Johnson is trying to argue against that at the moment.

He's very good at raising the stakes and invoking the idea of the ticking clock.

Realistically, while we are still in the EU, the ticking clock is less of an issue - it's going to be a very big issue if we exit and begin the transition period.

I really do hope MPs bear that in mind if they start feeling pressured now.

This pressure is going to be a walk in the park compared to the transition deadline.

Did I hear that right? The government is proposing just two days - days not weeks - to debate the WAB?!

And they've still not been lodged yet, so MPs haven't had a chance to scrutinise them in order to draft amendments

Snap posting!