The deal won't pass. The extension will be denied.

[StealthPolarBear]

Ahhhhh shiiit

It is 16 million British EU citizens having their EU citizenship forcibly removed.

Chick my EU citizenship (as a British citizen only) is being removed along with the rest of the 16 million remain voters who can't find EU citizenship down the back of the sofa.

Saw a very funny tweet in response to Nigel's tweet "I am as confused as a chameleon in a bag of skittles" I thought it was funny

Either we have our native citizenship, or have taken the British one, or have both.

Not quite. The outcome of the deSouza case shows how little the UK cares about their obligations under the GFA. All NI citizens are deemed British by default and can only be deemed to be Irish if they revoke a citizenship they never accepted was theirs. The GFA allows citizens of NI identify as Irish or British or both but the UK does not recognise this.

If Boris doesn't get his deal approved on Saturday, he is fucked.

He'll have no choice but to send the letter and ask for an extension. The various schemes that have been suggested for avoiding this will not work. The courts have already proved that they won't stand for his messing around.

Juncker might be hinting that the EU would refuse an extension, but he's just trying to pressurise MPs into voting for the deal. When it comes to it, the EU won't say no to an extension because they don't want to be responsible for forcing a no deal Brexit.

The Tories are doing well in the polls at the moment because of his strong approach to Brexit. If we're still in the EU on November 1st, he won't have done and he won't have died. He will have rehashed a deal that is 95% the same as May's and then, like May, failed to get it through parliament. Same old story. His ratings will fall through the floor.

@Eeeeeby fingers crawssed!!

Whatever criticisms of Boris Johnson there are, he has managed to get the EU to agree to this where Theresa May didn't. Even if it doesn't get through parliament, fair play to him.

Idontwanttotalk, you seem to think that Boris has somehow achieved something with this deal that Theresa May didn't manage to achieve, but that really isn't the case.

Firstly, that idea seems to be based on the assumption that Boris's deal is better than May's, which is arguably not the case, but I guess that depends on your perspective. Secondly, you seem to think that the EU wouldn't have agreed to this deal if May had tried to negotiate it, but the EU have never had a problem with the idea of a border in the Irish sea. May never even tried to argue for that kind of deal because she knew that it would be unacceptable to the DUP, and indeed to many on the right of the Tory party - Boris included. He suddenly seems to have changed his tune.

So far, Boris has achieved no more than Theresa May achieved. Her problem was not reaching an agreement with the EU, but getting it through parliament. We'll know on Saturday whether Boris manages to do any better. If he does scrape through, I don't think it will be through any great achievement of his own - more a case of everyone being fed up of it and wanting to put an end to it.

while he colluded to impose on them a BRexit deal which he knows will stitch them up royally

OMG the years of Faragist like brainwashing really has taken a permanent fix.

Within the remit of its foundations (and its lead from Ireland) the EU has:

1. Given May what she initially requested.
2. Agreed to change it to give May amendments she sought to satisfy the DUP.
3. Given Johnson the changes that he asked for.

And that is collusion by the EU to impose a deal ?

Thus begins the narrative. A few decades down the road we have fallen not from the 5 th to the 7 th richest country. Now we are the 20 th place or lower. England and Wales are a separate union - no longer with Scotland or NI.

Will it be Cameron's fault for holding the ref- oh no

Will it be the electorate's fault for an uniformed, undefined and unhinged vote - oh no.

Will it be the Tory's fault for being frightened of Farage and unable to moderate their right wing- oh no.

Will it be Johnson and the ERGs fault for squeaking a shit deal through by no deal brinksmanship ( if they do)- oh no.

Ah yes of course- It will be the EUs fault for agreeing to what we requested. Right.

If Boris doesn't get his deal approved on Saturday, he is fucked.

Here's hoping...

If we're still in the EU on November 1st, he won't have done and he won't have died. He will have rehashed a deal that is 95% the same as May's and then, like May, failed to get it through parliament. Same old story. His ratings will fall through the floor.

Except there will be a general election, he'll probably win a majority, the same deal will be presented and it will pass.
Something unforeseen has to happen on Saturday to stop this happening - a referendum to be approved for example, and that seems less likely.

It's only a few months ago that the Tories and Labour were about level in the polls. The Tories bounced when Johnson was appointed leader, but a lot of that goodwill is evaporating.

If the Tories go into an election with this deal on their manifesto, they're unlikely to get any help from the Brexit Party. I think an absolute majority is unlikely.

Electorally, they slipped up by chasing a deal, which Johnson is now committed to.... Like May was....

When Junker was asked by a reporter at today’s press conference what he would say to the 48% he replied
“You were right”

We can always rely on the President of the European Commission to give a fair and balanced view on Brexit.

Electorally, they slipped up by chasing a deal, which Johnson is now committed to.... Like May was....

But there’s a crucial difference in that most leavers (even Steve Baker and his ilk) are happy with this deal. Only the most hardcore leavers (i.e. those who want no deal only) won’t accept it.

Lonely planet you have not read my post properly and gone off half cocked. Junker is colluding in getting this deal passed by his comments about no extension and creating a feeling amongst MPs (and their voting constituents that pressure them) that if they don't vote for this deal they are voting for no deal.

He is deliberately creating this atmosphere because he just wants the deal passed. He knows it's a shot deal for the UK.

I'm not suggesting EU should put UL before EU obviously. Of course this deal is good for them and they want it passed but his no extension comments create an unnecessary blackmail type situation for British MPs and this is his collusion. He didn't need to say anything about extension, it's nothing to do with him, yet he did and it's created this panic we are seeing about voting for a shit deal.

Anyway, I don't think this thread will age well because I suspect the deal will pass. The current rumours are that enough Labour MPs will vote for it and that Corbyn will not whip to stop them doing so.

Junkers no extension comment are almost certainly a factor in this as MPs will worry about voting against this and not getting an extension and accidentally causing no deal.

There is no reason on Earth this deal should pass when Mays, didn't except the fear that we won't get an extension.

He didn't need to say anything about extension, it's nothing to do with him, yet he did and it's created this panic we are seeing about voting for a shit deal.

He was asked about an extension by reporters. If he hadn't answered, there would have been complaints about that.

The UK media are misrepresenting his comments. Have a look at some of the Irish media outlets. They are reporting that he said there is no need for an extension as there is a deal, which is pretty much what he said. He did also say that there would be no extension on this deal.

"Today 08:31BentBastard

Anyway, I don't think this thread will age well because I suspect the deal will pass. The current rumours are that enough Labour MPs will vote for it and that Corbyn will not whip to stop them doing so."
But haven't we been told repeatedly the DUP won't support it and therefore it won't pass?

But haven't we been told repeatedly the DUP won't support it and therefore it won't pass?

It depends on whether they abstain or vote against it. In an interview I heard this morning, Sammy Wilson repeatedly avoided saying they would vote against it. He said they wouldn't support it.

Personally, I don't think this is a vote that anyone should abstain on. It's too important and abstaining is a total cop out.

Ironically Boris expelling the 21 to deprive himself of his majority, aided and abetted by Dr Lee joining the LibDems made 10 DUP votes much less relevant. They were no longer holding the balance of power because 10 is way less than 20+.

whyamidoingthis ooh thank you interesting

Nicholas Soames has said he'll vote with the govt. Have any if the Gaukeward squad said what they'll do?

A Geordie Labour MP said he and lots of his colleagues will vote for the deal.

The UK media are misrepresenting his comments. Have a look at some of the Irish media outlets. They are reporting that he said there is no need for an extension as there is a deal, which is pretty much what he said. He did also say that there would be no extension on this deal

Although I think even if MPs do pass the deal tomorrow it's nonsense to argue that all the legal work can be finished in less than 2 weeks. An extension is needed either way, but maybe only until the end of November if it's about dotting the i's and crossing the t's in the various legal documents (European parliament also has to accept deal).

Not sure why the British media is being so obtuse about Juncker's comments. Even on the Today programme this morning Martha Kearney was acting as if Juncker had said no extension was possible. Why?

Although I think even if MPs do pass the deal tomorrow it's nonsense to argue that all the legal work can be finished in less than 2 weeks.

I'm not arguing that it can be done in that time frame. I'm saying the Junker said there will not be an extension on this deal. I'm assuming that means they will not extend in order to change or amend the deal, not that it will necessarily be done in 2 weeks.

Not sure why the British media is being so obtuse about Juncker's comments.

It seems to be par for the course in the UK media wrt brexit. It astonishes me sometimes, the spin they put on stuff. It's a good idea to read other media too. That's why I read the UK stuff. It gives a good feel for attitudes in the UK.

If you don't read other languages, RTE's Tony Conneely is excellent. The Irish Times is also a pretty reputable source.

I'm a staunch remainer but think this deal will go through. I think enough labour MPs will vote for it.

I too think the deal will pass. Another extension would serve no purpose whatsoever.
I think there are quite a few Labour MP's who'll vote for it, mindful of the fact that more Labour constituencies voted to Leave.