Westminstenders: DUP says no

[TheMShip]

I don't really feel qualified to start a Westminstenders thread but we need a new one....

Since when has Farage been a defender of the Benn bill.

It was the ‘surrender bill’ a week ago...

Yep - turns out Farage is nothing but a shit stirrer who believes in nothing but causing trouble and spreading hate. So when you give him exactly what he says he wants he has to reverse and say he wanted something else all along - and it's still your fault hes not getting it.

If you then give him the new thing he wants... time to back track. And it's still your fault. I can't wait to see the tweet he'll send out if we do get another extension.

He's a rabid shit stirrer and nothing else. Who'd a thunk it?

I'd feel sorry for the people who follow him in good faith and actually do want the things he purports to want ... but they choose to follow a racist hatemonger who spreads lies and dissension so ... nah.

Farage is doing his job to earn them roubles.

Lots of sensible voices on Twitter making the important distinction that Juncker's comment about 'no prolongation' was because his assumption is simply that there's a deal, so no extension required.

EG Jessica Simor:

This is not what he is saying. He is saying that if they have a deal there is no need for an extension, ie to get it finished. He can't and wouldn't say whether the EU27 would grant an extension if asked.

And Adam Boulton:

Juncker didn’t rule out an extension. He said he wants this deal which would make an extension unnecessary. German MEP @davidmcallister after EPP leaders meeting told me extension is a possibility- it’s up to UK Parliament.

Juncker was made to say that about no extension because it's all about how it looks for Johnson and Johnson's future. That's what Cummings is for.

.

Pmk. Thanks to Red and TheMship.
No need to apologise Red - you've been amazing.

Do we agree that this cat marked its own place rather well?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-isle-of-man-50070123/stowaway-cat-found-in-hand-luggage-at-airport-security

@wondering7777 I thought the same re Keir Starmer! They’re talking like they expect Johnson to be here for years...

So basically BJ is forcing a deal that will take the U.K. to a hard Brexit whereas TM WA was leaving the door open to a soft Brexit.
But that’s a deal, it’s better than No Deal and the EU has just said no extension (yes I know that we shouldn't take it to the letter but it’s what people will hear and I suspect what MPs will hear too)

Bullying tactics and all that

I would hope Juncker wouldn’t be ‘made’ to say anything though.

RedToothBrush Don’t you think that Saturday should be the day the MPs do their job and vote for one thing or another, it’s doing no good just going on and on

I HATE this new proposal, but I fear no deal more. Do I think MPs should vote for it? If I were an MP I would probably vote for it, but I don't think I could tell anyone else to such is the state of things at this point.

There is a sense of being damned if you do and damned if you don't at this point. Its just the least worst option we currently have.

Thats the problem, what is the alternative to NOT voting for the deal?

The reason Juncker said 'no extension' is because he wants parliament to vote for the deal. Once again the EU falls in line behind Johnson (as they did with May once they had agree her WA). There is now a united position for the EU and UK government to achieve that.

That makes things difficult in a sense for the opposition. They do not have a credible alternative plan that could get a majority in parliament either. 'Remainers and Soft Leavers' being unable or unwilling to find common ground should not be ignored.

The failure to achieve a united alternative plan, does mean the only option on the table right now, is Johnson's Deal.

No Deal still isn't off the table with this either - the chances of us being ready for the end of transition are limited.

I don't think the plan really resolves the NI question to a satisfactory level and I think that will come out in time too. But its the best option on the table as it stands.

The Opposition Fucked It Up.

I do not think it is likely to get through parliament on Saturday either. I think there will be a big push for trying to get the numbers to add a referendum amendment through (which would give us a reason to ask for an extension), but I'm not sure that has the numbers either.

Even now, I think come Saturday afternoon we could be panicking going 'WHAT THE FUCK NOW???!!!' tbh.

Thank you to both Bigchocfrenzy and redtoothbrush. It shows what a wonderful forum you have created that it carries on even when you are both getting on with your real lives

Yes indeed, very much appreciated.

10 more years of conservatives will ou the country in its knees. :(

"According to Katya Adler, it's May's deal but with the backstop bits crossed out."

WRONG

As Starmer has just explained,
BJ's deal is much worse than May's - for the UK - but still OK for the EU.

tobee No the EU haven't caved - their 3 main red lines were always: exit bill, citizens rights, NI
This WA delivers that

"Keir Starmer is talking like Labour won’t win an election in the next ten years now"

If the Tories win a GE and just accept US terms for an FTA, with little further negotiation (there may already be a draft FTA)
then it could be very difficult for a Labour govt after even the next GE to get out of it :

The FTA would likely have swingeing penalty clauses - massive compensation and even punitive tariffs -for any future actions that lowered profits for US business, or changed UK foreign & military policy e.g. towards Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia

Also, once US produce is in the food chain, any new EU FTA would be difficult and limited

fishes & others asking about NI - my reading of it:
This in effect makes the backstop permanent

The backstop is there for 4 years, but after this can only be ended if both communities agree
SInce the Nationalists would never want a border in Ireland, they would never vote to end the backstop

Under May's deal, the backstop could have been replaced by some future magic technology
However, Nationalists in the future would vote againts this too, since they don't want even an invisible, virtual border.

Christ - Keir Starmer is talking like Labour won’t win an election in the next ten years now.

He can see just how badly Labour have fucked up, whether or not the deal passes!

If this shit deal is voted down is there any possibility May's old deal could be resurrected?

@BigChocFrenzy
Yet again agree with you. This government also feels as if it's going to go in for some highly Thatcherite policies as soon as it can which, in my view, will create even more division & inequity - & can have lasting impacts on generations/society generally.

Plus, even if Labour do get in within the next few years there will be no money left to play with as the 'fiscally sound' cons will have spent it all on populist appeasement.

For anyone who remembers, this fees like we are in 1980s territory without the decent music to keep us going.

@BigChocFrenzy the EU have caved unfortunately - they said there would be no further negotiation on the backstop, and now look what’s happened.

Plus the NIA could vote to disalign themselves with EU regulations in four years time, leading to a hard border on the island of Ireland. I’ve no idea how Boris managed to win these concessions but it all points to a much harder Brexit than TM’s deal did sadly.

BJ's deal is much worse than May's - for the UK

It’s a much worse deal if you’re a remainer because it’s a harder Brexit. From a leave point of view it’s a far better deal, as Steve Baker’s support for it attests.

If this shit deal is voted down is there any possibility May's old deal could be resurrected?

Fuck knows.

I don't think anyone else does either really.

I think anything that can get a parliamentary majority is an option to be resurrected in theory.

What that is, isn't clear though.

The more Labour fuck up now the more likely a new leader will come and deal with Johnson. Always look at the long term.

Thanks to BCF and everyone for taking care to answer my often daft questions!

Of course BJ can't tell Juncker or the EU what to do
BJ can't even tell his own party what to do

At this stage, the EU just want a WA that keeps their 3 red lines - Exit bill, citizens rights, no NI border - which this WA does

However, imo the EU would NOT push the UK out at this stage - the HoC would have to choose to leave
Refusing extension only becomes likely from about June, to avoid the UK interfering with their 7-year budget negotiations.

My only (minor) concern about an extension is whether Hungary might think it has cover, with the WA, to veto

Peter Foster@pmdfoster

To be clear, if an extension request comes in penny to a 100 euros, the EU leaders grant it.

They won't be seen to kick out the Brits,
or put finger on the political balance in London. #Brexit

And there's this

Jonathan Freedland @Freedland
Some remainer MPs fear the no-dealers are playing a double game:

ERG vote for deal on Saturday and it passes. Benn Act falls away. ERG then vote against withdrawal legislation at later stage and, with the Benn Act gone, UK leaves with no deal on October 31

But they'd have to have the numbers for a deal to pass on Saturday... so...

@bellinisurge today you have won the quote of the day on t'internet

Faridge will have to find something else to wank about

👏👏👏

no NI border - which this WA does

But this new deal very easily could lead to a border between NI and Ireland.

The sun has finally come out in London in sync with Johnson and his lovely all new, all singing, all dancing deal!

"the EU have caved unfortunately - they said there would be no further negotiation on the backstop, "

wondering No there's no EU cave in.
They said they'd never have a WA without a permanent & effective backstop

This WA gives a backstop which is permanent, instead of one that would be replaced by tech,
and it is as good for them and for Ireland

Varadkar asked them to do the backstop this way - they didn't "cave in" to him either;
the backstop is only for the benefit of Ireland;
rEU would have no problem with a hard border if Ireland had been ok with one.