Westminstenders: DUP says no

[TheMShip]

I don't really feel qualified to start a Westminstenders thread but we need a new one....

With Farage coming out against Johnson, I am now waiting on the Tories holding a Vote of No Confidence in themselves.

I wondered today if Johnson is going to vote against his own deal as part of some Big Evil Plan.

@cat - thank you - great post.

David Allen Green interesting on Twitter (sorry really bad at linking). His view - big divergence of interests now between brexiters and leavers ( who want all the benefits of EU). Johnson has made big mistake & will pay. Sorry - poor summary by me.

Johnson has made big mistake & will pay.

We can but live in hope.

That is what we have to do. People in the past have fought for the changes they wanted to see. Even if Johnson gets his way, and we become a vassal state of the US, we will still have to keep fighting for what we believe.

If we withdrew from the EHRC, no I wouldn't trust the British public not to vote for hanging,

I also wouldn't trust them not to vote for corporal punishment in prisons and in schools

Exactly. And with FPTP it wouldn't have to be the whole British public or even a majority of them. 34% could deliver a tory majority and it wouldn't matter that 66% hadn't voted for it. 100% would still have to live with whatever they delivered.

That's not a flaw in the system - it's there by design. Our democracy is just not that democratic (even before you add in psy ops and dirty money) so leaving workers rights and human rights to trust that people won't vote against them is never going to be enough.

Apparently Javid has said that he's not going to run the numbers to model the impact of this deal in advance of the vote on Saturday

How are our MPs, who are supposed to be representing our best interests (even though their politics may mean that they have different perspectives of both what our best interests are and how to achieve them), going to be in a position to make educated decision?

Yes, I know that we have a view - but the MPs really should be given the opportunity to see the figures.

PMK

Arlene has been meeting "Loyalist" terrorist leaders

http://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/10/16/news/dup-defends-arlene-foster-s-astonishing-meetings-with-senior-loyalists-1739844/

THE DUP has defended its leader's decision to meet loyalist paramilitaries to discuss the implications of a mooted Brexit deal that could see a so-called border in the Irish Sea.

Arlene Foster and other senior party figures are reported to have held talks in recent days with high-ranking figures from the UVF and UDA

Reminder: EU negotiators describing at the time why BJ insisted on dumping level Playing Field

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-environment-rules-trump-trade-deal-a9143221.html

EU officials say that British negotiators are particularly keen to jettison EU restrictions on genetically modified foods – a key demand of American trade negotiators.

One EU official with knowledge of the Brexit talks suggested US trade officials appeared to have been in contact with British negotiators
and told them standards would need to be slashed if there was any chance of a US trade deal.

Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, said scrapping the protections was
“vital for giving us the freedom and flexibility to strike new trade deals and become more competitive”.

A cabinet source also told The Sun newspaper: “The level-playing-field promise has to go, and Boris is very clear about this.
“It would seriously restrict our ability to deregulate^ and do trade deals with other countries.”^

The withdrawal agreement signed by Ms May contains pages of annexes of EU rules that the UK would align with

@BigChocFrenzy

You appear to be arguing for a “benign” dictatorship of a liberal establishment that seeks to protect “the people” from themselves as they can’t be trusted.

I fundamentally disagree with this.... I believe in democracy, full stop, with a representative one it’s most effective expression.

If liberals try to obstruct the wider public from exercising their democratic voice by only allowing them a say on matters of which they approve, the wider public will find their voice through populists, and that’s exactly what’s happening!

Exactly. And with FPTP it wouldn't have to be the whole British public or even a majority of them. 34% could deliver a tory majority and it wouldn't matter that 66% hadn't voted for it. 100% would still have to live with whatever they delivered.

Well it’s up to the 66% to get better organised if 34% can get a majority.... Besides Labour has done pretty well out of FPTP over the years.

.

No, oakenbeach The public's freedom to choose iis already constrained by international laws that affect the UK
Many laws come from the UN; others from the EHRC; others from organisations like the ILO

Unless you have aspirations for the UK to become a starving pariah like North Korea or Zimbabwe, then all these laws will continue to bind us

Nothing liberal about that, just realising that these laws & constraints already exist
The independence you may be thinking of was back in the 19th century

Besides Labour has done pretty well out of FPTP over the years.

This is the problem with both Labour and the Tories - as long as they think they can win majorities, they won't want reform. A few more hung Parliaments and they might begin to see sense.

Oakenshot so you're' saying you're happy that the woman who told me that she voted Leave to get rid of all the immigrants and that England wasn't like when she grew up in the 50's is a voice to be listened to and trusted?

Does it not seem just the tiniest bit strange that the most authoritarian/anti-democratic leaders (Farage, Trump, Putin, Salvini, Orban...) WANT the UK to leave? How does that sit with you?

Saturday Scenarios

Differing opinions on whether the WA will pass - much depends on the relative numbers of Labour & Tory rebels
The PV is given little chance of passing

Nick Eardley@nickeardleybbc

Senior Labour sources predicting fewer than ten Labour MPs will back Government on Saturday.
Every vote could count....

Understand Labour MPs will not lose whip if they back PM's deal on Saturday

BUT

Alex Wickham@alexwickham

Peter Mandelson’s firm reckons up to 20 Labour MPs could vote for the deal

— and if it falls then EU could offer a short extension to create a choice between deal and no deal

Joe Armitagee@joe*armitagee_

Analysis from @Globall_Counsel on Boris’ deal:

• It might pass, even without DUP support

• An amendment for a referendum isn’t likely as it will certainly fail

• If Boris loses narrowly then the EU can help get it across the line in a second vote

Well it’s up to the 66% to get better organised if 34% can get a majority.... Besides Labour has done pretty well out of FPTP over the years

Better organised how??? If you remove brexit and the urgent need to work together then what you are left with is disparate political parties who are in opposition to each other and working towards different goals. And that's right and normal! There should be lots of parties, and they should stand for what they believe in - so that everyone has a choice to vote for something they actually want.
The down side of that is that - because there are more than two parties - it is very unlikely that any single party will get anywhere near 50% of the vote.
If we had proper proportional representation that wouldn't matter.
But we have FPTP - which means for anyone who votes for a candidate that doesn't win essentially their vote was meaningless. Which means you get a majority of seats on a minority of the vote - and inflict your policies on the majority who didn't vote for you.
Under FPTP, the only way the 66% can get 'better organised' to stop the party that takes 34% of the vote from getting a majority is for them all to vote for the same party - essentially turning our system into the 2 party system they have in America. And under normal circumstances the 66% shouldn't have to do that - they believe in and support different things. And there's no way the Lib Dems, Greens, SNP, Plaid and all the independents would stand by and let that happen - it would mean their extinction.

Tactical voting is all very well and good to try and engineer a hung parliament, but the very point of FPTP is that it is supposed to avoid them. It is specifically designed to do that. If the tories get over 30% of the vote at the next election - it doesn't matter how tactically everyone else votes, they still win the most seats - probably an outright majority. And then they can do whatever they like.

I wondered today if Johnson is going to vote against his own deal

No, that’s Labour’s policy, remember?

Depressing reading.

Down a twitter rabbit hole I discovered that Brian Moore ( ex England rugby player ) is generally quite politically sound & really good at putting down Brexiters on twitter. Who'd have thought it.

They want to have the whip back !

Nicholas Watt@nicholaswatt

Sir Nicholas Soames tells me he + most of Tory rebels will support PM’s #Brexit deal:

‘My quarrel with the PM was over nothing, except for No Deal.
So there is a deal, and I will vote for it and so will many of my colleagues who had the whip taken away from them’
@BBCNewsnight

Am I right in thinking that Soames did vote each time for Theresa May's deal?

It's depressing though; I really want this to destroy the current incarnation of the Tory party.

Oh for god’s sake...

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/corbyn-refuses-to-confirm-backing-for-second-referendum-on-johnsons-deal

Steven McCaffery@StevieMcCaffery

A year before the #Brexit referendum, the DUP was warned of the risks of Brexit by officials at Stormont.

It pushed on.
The party owns the consequences.

From that Guardian article, looks like lack of Tory rebel support too:

"Leading supporters of a “people’s vote” had been planning to use so-called “Super Saturday” to test support for a second referendum.

But sources close to the campaign said there was not enough backing among former Tories for the move to be successful.

They denied that their pulling away from a vote was because the Labourr^ leadership were lukewarm on the idea."

Cameron and the Tories have the largest share of blame in this but Labour isn't far behind, particularly Corbyn.
Labour are meant to be an internationalist working people's party. They aren't acting like one at present, with honorable exceptions.

If remain MPs don’t get their shit together now, they never will. And judging by that article, it’s the latter...