Westminstenders: DUP says no

[TheMShip]

I don't really feel qualified to start a Westminstenders thread but we need a new one....

@Oakenbeach - but you have people like Liz Truss - saying parliament won't have a say in future trade deals...... not quite sure how works, but I guess that because they control parliament they present what they have negotiated with whomever to Parliament to vote on..... and not negotiate at all with the EU - who knows......

15% poll margins would be a start

All along, I think we have placed far too much reliance on the polls. Polls are too easily gamed.

Look at the difference in size of the marches last Spring - actual people. We were told there would be thousands marching for Brexit, there would be riots. When it came down to it, Farage barely managed 200-odd - and they didn't even march the whole way. They were a laughing stock.
The Trafalgar square protest was dwarfed by the People's Vote march that they are now admitting really was over a million.

What about those protests on the road - the go-slows promised by the lorry drivers? A tiny handful, with the participants shamed and muttering about never bothering again.

I think Cat could be right. There are a lot of Leavers who have quietly changed their minds and they just want the whole thing to go away. They don't feel anything like the passion the ex-football hooligans would have you believe.

Good point from Connelly:
major difference is that this is not a backstop - it is the new system that would automatically happen after transition.

Let's call it the new Irish border system ? - IBS !

Tony Connelly@tconnellyRTE

5/ Important to remember, this is no longer an insurance policy that would kick in if other solutions, ie an FTA and Alternative Arrangements, don't work.

At the end of the transition, either Dec 2020 or Dec 2022, we go to this new system directly.

Therefore it's not a backstop

I hope you are right Tanith. Certainly of Leavers I know, two have left the Country, so I suspect won't be interested, and another won't bother - the Referendum was the first and last time he voted.

My worry is lukewarm Remainers who think that a vote Leave will get it over with. With those, I am working on their emotions - do you really want to see the NHS sold off to American Big Pharma?

@Arborea thank you!
Sadly I'm not sure remain would win yet. I think the values of the EU don't chime with a majority who have fallen for the myth of British superiority. Intellectual rigour is ridiculed, experts are wrong & it's acceptable to accuse those who don't agree with you of treachery.
I don't agree with David Goodhart's views generally but The Road to Somewhere is v interesting on this.
I upset myself by reading the comments on Twitter & despair. The nastiness of the 'we won' narrative is everywhere - really despicable. The referendum is talked of as if it were an old firm football match. And 'remoaners' are criticised for not providing losers' consent - why would anyone in the atmosphere that's been created?

Marches and voting are not comparable

How many coaches are there coming from Grimsby, Jaywick, Hastings, Louth, Ramsgate?
Remember that the maximum leave vote in any constituency was around 70%
and many of those voters have not travelled much lately
2/3 of constituencies voted leave

look at the ER folks
rich retirees
students
self employed Londoners

those who turn up on Saturday may represent Remain, but to spot Leave you need to go to their town

which is where the polling booths are

There are a lot of Leavers who have quietly changed their minds and they just want the whole thing to go away.

That’s certainly true. The two (educated 60ish) Leavers I know admit it was a mistake.

But my hairdresser is still going strong as a fan of Boris. She doesn’t read the newspapers.

Coaches
www.peoples-vote.uk/october_coaches

Marches and voting are not comparable

She wasn’t comparing marching and voting, but comparing the marches them with each other as evidence of numbers. It’s a fair point.

@BigChocFrenzy

You appear to be saying you don’t trust the public, so you prefer they didn’t have the opportunity to have a say. That’s fundamentally undemocratic and elitist.... and it is this kind of high-handed condescending attitude that is a key reason why liberalism is losing ground in the West, and why people put their faith in populists like Trump.

I am dealing with this entire shitshow by pretending to be Alice in Wonderland and trying to spot the Next Impossible Thing.

With Farage coming out against Johnson, I am now waiting on the Tories holding a Vote of No Confidence in themselves.

My predictions: Deal (of some variety), subject to a PV.

I still think Leave won the last time due to the woolliness of the "leave" promises, Facebook targeting and that damn bus. If the Remain group gets off their backsides and actually campaigns properly, with reference to the NHS threat, they could win.

As for the GE: it depends on what Boris does to cock it up. He is doing a good job of handing Scotland and Wales back to their respective national parties.

I think it will depend on if the ERG back this. Surely they must know it’s as close to their fantasy as they are likely to get?
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/its-painful-to-choose-erg-locked-in-internal-talks-over-brexit-deal

Signing in with popcorn. Rather cardboard-y popcorn at the moment. Heads they win, tails we lose.

Farage said earlier today that if No Deal isn't a choice in the still to be agreed Referendum, then he won't vote at all.

Silver linings and all that

How many coaches are going from Leave areas? Well, I know that N Staffs was a staunch Leave area. One coach is going from Leek, two from the Stoke region and one from Keele University. So OK we might discount the University people as they are likely to be Remainers.

Barnsley/ Wakefield? One going from Darlington - which is not all that far from Sunderland. None of these were Remain areas as far as I remember.

What alternative is there to accepting the result - repeating the referendum over & over ?

There's not one. Hence exactly why I said we'd have to accept it.

But that doesn't mean we have to shut up about it or should stop agitating for what we do want. A referendum result to stay in Europe didn't stop Farage agitating.

From today's Popbitch -

Spotted dining together in Kennington Tandoori yesterday: Arlene Foster and Kate Hoey.

Arlene Foster and Kate Hoey

Interesting... wouldn’t be at all surprised with KH didn’t vote for the deal!

Barnsley/ Wakefield? One going from Darlington - which is not all that far from Sunderland. None of these were Remain areas as far as I remember.

One coach = 50 people.... out of 100,000+ so hardly very telling.

This is an on point tweet.

OYBBK
Your map supports my point

buttery
Kate and Arlene : permission to be not in the least bit surprised

I reiterate : DO NOT think that the "we just want it over" brigade will not come out and vote to bugger up sensible choices
please

We have a representative democracy
and do not give me the parliament versus people shit
those buggers are paid to read the documents
make them do their job
and protect the future voters of this country

It's probably worth pointing out that 'Remainers' aren't some elect group of people.

'Remainers' are you, me and anyone who thinks that this Deal is going to be bad for the UK & going to worsen the life opportunities of themselves and their children.

If you worry about your retirement, how you will access social care and health care in ten- twenty years time, the working conditions of your children, the opportunities they will have, the health and safety conditions under which they will work: you, you are a Remainer.

So please, please don't say, 'Remainers need to get off their arses,' because ... that's you.

I've worked for Remain.

But I have no more secret knowledge, magical powers or abilities than anyone here.

I have very little income; I'm disabled; I have a job that I have to do in order to live.

Honestly, if we get a chance at a second referendum, it is probably going to be the only chance to avert this disaster.

And it is going to be a disaster.

The gods have left the earth - and now it's down to us.

There's going to be no miracle revoke.

It's going to be on us to bring this about.

But it is worth trying - because failure means a massively diminished future - for most of us.
☹️

So, you know, I do urge optimism - because it's all we have, to be honest. 🤷‍♀️

here here cat

Oakenbeach If we withdrew from the EHRC, no I wouldn't trust the British public not to vote for hanging,

I also wouldn't trust them not to vote for corporal punishment in prisons and in schools

It's a matter of where you draw the line, in what you let people decide

My personal line, is that I want to stay in the EHRC
and that I also want the Level Playing Field to be legally binding

We are talking about a public that "knowingly" voted for austerity in 2010, when it didn't realise the consequences - now hates austerity, blames the "elite" for what it voted for and has turned to the popuists

catfromjapan
In my real life I hassle everybody to be proactive
but it gets ferkin tiring
and I know that I'm surrounded by ferkwits who fill their bin three times over in a week
hence why I have lots of faith in representative democracy
(my MP is well sound)
and stuff all in referedums (low information voters)

My better half reads medieval and tudor era European history
"yeoman stock" did not understand complex issues so did not get a voice on them
its a thought