Westminstenders: DUP says no

[TheMShip]

I don't really feel qualified to start a Westminstenders thread but we need a new one....

It would be nice if we could have a NI only ref on whether they would accept being treated differently and - assuming they were OK with it - the whole UK were then allowed to vote for which of the two W.As they prefer.

This ref could be held at the same time as a leave via a W.A vs remain confirmatory vote - so it would only come into effect in the event of the leave vote winning the P.V. That way we not only get a say on whether we still want to brexit or not but also how we do it . Because right now even if we get a P.V - it looks like it would be remain vs Boris shitty deal, even though there is a better deal available that people have been working to put to a public vote for months that we now don't even get to consider because Boris has a new shitty deal.

Obviously I know this won't happen - way too complicated, not the numbers in parliament to pass something with so many steps, Boris' ego would never allow his deal to go head to head with TM's in case he got the pants beaten off him, EU would probably not too likely on this rather cakeist approach...

But for what it is worth - we have two different ways to leave and no actual democratic reason to object to letting people choose which they prefer. And putting it on a separate ballot to the leave vs remain option (as opposed to remain vs May's W.A vs Johnson's W.A) stops complaints of a remainer stitch up and splitting the leave vote.

... If only common sense had ever held a place in the whole brexit debacle.

Pmk

I think there's only one Corbyn supporter on these threads - bless her stoic heart.

The rest of us are a bit 'grit your teeth and bear it'.

Which is quite telling, really.

I have to put all my thoughts about how everything might have played out with a different Leader in a box in my head, to be opened in (maybe) 10 years time, or I'd go completely mad.

Whilst it's getting well ahead of ourselves in a 2nd referendum, remain would win easily.

if the people who did not vote at all in 2016 hit the polls.

Otherwise it's just as knife-edge as before.

And having accepted the "convention" that there can't be a supermajority, and that the referendum result must be enacted immediately it's hard to see how it "brings us together".

wondering We've quoted that summary of poll on an earlier thread,
but also quoted the polling expert who said that the Remain lead is so narrow that anything could happen in an actual contest

The one thing that could save Remain is that Leavers want different kinds of Leave

However, BJ's WA is sufficiently hardcore that even No Dealers in GB could vote for it - they'd accept "Britannia Unchained" would just have to be without NI
whereas softer Leavers could say that at least it isn't No Deal

Even a narrow Revoke win would likely not settle the matter, if the Tories get in again with a big majority and a manifesto for Leave

• quite possible the HoC would just vote to Invoke again

One thing would really help Remain is if erstwhile Remainers stopped chickening out into a scared Leave position.

Which is what will happen with this WA.

"Most Brexiters I encountered didn’t know what EFTA was until well after the referendum, some still don’t."

I was referring mainly to MPs
They couldn't switch to EFTA, to go for a soft Brexit

But most voters will have heard Farage talking about Norway and why couldn't we be like them, even if they'd never heard of EFTA

Agree, Tatiana

On the plus side, both Swinson and Corbyn are stating very firmly it's crap.

However, I haven't heard Swinson say the LDs won't be voting for it.

Which is worrying.

What would really help Remain is if some Remainers weren't so arrogant towards anyone who doesn't sign up to the pure Remain position

Many of us who would accept a soft leave now are the same ones who said this right after the referendum.

I was referring mainly to MPs

Fair enough. Although you may be overestimating them too.

However, I haven't heard Swinson say the LDs won't be voting for it.

Sam Gymiah said that they wouldn’t vote for it unless a PV was attached. I can’t imagine he will have gone rogue.

Jo Swinson has tweeted this:

“The next few days will shape the future of our country for generations. I am more determined than ever to #StopBrexit and give the public the final say in a #PeoplesVote.”

Which suggests she won’t vote for the deal unless there is a second referendum attached. At least I hope that’s what she means - unfortunately I don’t trust any politicians nowadays.

I don't think EFTA was ever a possibility, BigChoc because of Conservative Party dynamics.

EFTA was over when May went with her 'red lines' (to the amazement of her own negotiating team).

Rory Stewart has talked about his own amazement that May didn't start with a soft Brexit position - but she knew her Party - & she knew it was dead before it breathed.

That's the problem with Brexit: there is no path to any kind of rational outcome or compromise because so many of the pieces just won't fit together.

And always, always we come back to the question as to why May pressed the red button on A50.

It was such a very un-UK way of doing it. Committees and reports ... that's the UK way. Or was.

But a madness was in the air.

And no-one was there to fight the madness.

It's wearing off now, thank God.

Most people are calmer. Not all. But most.

Alas, the main Parties are still in the fall-out, bearing the marks of the madness.

But you can feel it: the craziness is receding.

There is no pure or impure. Remain is Remain. A soft Leaver is not really a Remainer.

And always, always we come back to the question as to why May pressed the red button on A50.

I do remember she was under a huge amount of pressure from the right wing press over why she had delayed triggering A50 for so long (nine months).

I really worry about the idea of voting for it if a PV is attached.

I really do.

(And that's what I meant. I can't imagine the LDs voting for it without a PV.)

I really think the Opposition should get their act together & form a GNU.

I just don't trust Johnson. At all.

@thecatfromjapan probably being thick here, but what’s a GNU?

I realggovernment of national unity/caretaker government.

I'm wondering if a GNU is more likely again.

Labour seem ;finally) to have realised a GE might be ... tricky, and more talk is coming out from Labour of supporting a referendum before a GE.

(An about-turn I'm looking forward to watching the Twitter out-riders pivot behind!!😁)

"EFTA was over when May went with her 'red lines' "

Yes, cat but I'm referring to the critical few months after the ref

This is when the Leave dynamics changed dramatically

e.g. I've often wondered if Cameron would have immediately switched to joining EFTA - if he hadn't spent all the campaign trashing this
He left himself no fallback position, except to run away

Rory Stewart has talked about his own amazement that May didn't start with a soft Brexit position - but she knew her Party - & she knew it was dead before it breathed.

Im not sure that’s true - it’s hard to know - but in the long interview with Gavin Barwell it transpires she was offered soft Brexit and even walking back on the referendum, and started off from a moderate position.
It was a personal decision, a process, (influenced I think by Fiona and Timothy and the ERG) to shift hard right.

Barwell thought this was a terrible mistake.

It's worth pointing out - again - that this deal sells the UK out.

It is unethical and immoral.

It is not in the interests of the UK (UK in the abstract and UK in terms of the majority of its inhabitants).

I say that because sometimes one can get so caught up in the minutiae that's one can forget the Very Important Thing.

It's worth pointing out - again - that this deal sells the UK out.

Yep. It’s really sad.

@borntobequiet What a pretty cat! Also love your username...

I'm not sure we're disagreeing, Tatiana.

I think she knew it wasn't going to be possible to get a soft Brexit through her Party. And she chose to try and keep her Party together.

So, yes, she chose not to go for a soft Brexit - even though a soft Brexit would have been more rational - and would probably have made it through Parliament.

But you're right we'll never know.