Westministenders: Slow News Fake News

[RedToothBrush]

Things have been slow whilst we are in proroguation, ahead of next weeks Queen's Speech and the EU summit.

We've been in full spin mode, from the likes of the far right and an unnamed source at No.10.

People seem to be waking up to the reality that its highly unlikely we will get a deal now, unless something significant. And No.10 has worked out the NI problem. FINALLY.

Anyway, if you have a little time this week and you are interested in the history of where technology change and fake news meet and how where we are now is merely things repeating themselves, Ian Hislop's Fake News: A True History, is essential viewing.
www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00095hv/ian-hislops-fake-news-a-true-history

I really feel strongly this is stuff that should be being taught in schools somehow as its what protects us from extremism.

Ketamine is offended

Cunts aren't too keen on being compared to Jeremy Hunt.

"We perform a variety of useful functions," they say.

(never mind how.)

"Ketmine is offended"
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
You are quite right.
Can't blame the ketamine!
Sadly, there is no cure for being a cunt bronn

Cunts have warmth and depth, both of which J Hunt is sorely lacking.

and even he would have been a much better choice for PM than BJ
.... which says a lot about BJ

Very true BigChoc

Are they trying Change V2 ?

Alex Wickham@alexwickham

NEW: Amber Rudd, Philip Hammond and David Gauke in talks with other Tory rebels to form a new political grouping at the election

• would have a shared Brexit position
• pool resources, donations & polling
• one source says it'd be a party in all but name

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/albertonardelli/amber-rudd-philip-hammond-david-gauke-new-party?

Hammond, the former chancellor, told BuzzFeed News:

“My preference is to run as a Tory candidate,
but if I am not able to, I plan to stand as an independent.

Obviously, in that situation, I would look to cooperate with any other ex-Tories standing in similar circumstances.”

The MPs, who are currently calling themselves “Independent Conservatives”, would act as a single political entity that could pave the way for a new centrist political party, according to two other sources with knowledge of the plans.

The group may appear on ballot papers as independents if they are not allowed to call themselves “Independent Conservatives” under Electoral Commission rules.

But they would stand together at the next election effectively as a party in their own right, the sources said, and hope to act as kingmakers in the event of another hung parliament.

Irish Times reporting there may have been a breakthrough in the BJ / Varadkar talks

However, other reports are much more cautious, so it may be wishful thinking again

Interesting take from RTE on the Varadkar/Johnson meeting

Suggests that we need to watch out what happens with Barclay/Barnier tomorrow and whether there is enough to continue talks.

twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1182314519416184839?s=21

bbc are reporting a breakthrough too.

Robert Pestonn@Peston*

I love that there are massive rows already going on all over Twitter about whether it's Dublin or London that's capitulated,
and whether Johnson's DUP and ERG allies will now feel let down,
and whether there are enough Labour Brexiters to make up the numbers, etc - and...

yet we actually know almost NOTHING about what happened in the Wirral, other than that Varadkar and Johnson were locked in a room for three hours,
and that they agreed the bleedin' obvious,
which is that customs and the principle of consent for new arrangements in...

Northern Ireland are sticking points.

As someone who has interviewed Boris Johnson quite a few times, and wrote columns for him at the Spectator 17 years ago,
I regard it as highly plausible that Johnson implied rather more to Varadkar than he actually said.

So if there is...

a reverse ferret here in a matter of hours, to the effect that the two sides remain as far apart as ever,
please don't expect me to be surprised

Thanks Red.

Pat Leahy of the Irish Times reports the following:

So am hearing that there has been very significant movement from British side on the customs issue in the Johnson-Varadkar talks. Not clear on detail and not clear what concessions expected in return. But if what I hear is correct, it changes the picture substantially

One possibility is that Johnson may have conceded a customs border in the Irish sea, subject to a consent mechanism.

The initial Johnson single market proposal was that NI would stay in the single market only if Stormont voted in favour. This was problematic as under Stormont rules, a majority of both nationalists and unionists need to approve. This in effect gave the DUP a veto, never mind Stormont not sitting at the moment.

A different consent mechanism giving all of NI consent - either a simple majority of Stormont members or a NI-only referendum would give clearer consent, and is highly likely to approve the backstop, according to all opinion polls.

Pat Leahy is only the first para - my speculation/musings are the rest

We suggested here months ago that NI should have a poll on the backstop !

I read Pat Leahy is suggesting that the compromise is NI staying in a joint UK-EU customs area

(That would be v complicated and might need transition for years to work out !)

I'd put money on a NI only ref tbh.

It would be the sensible thing, red - on the backstop - hence why we've been suggesting it here for yonks
Maybe sensible is cautiously tip-toeing back into the building ?
Or not ?

(I'm certainly no customs expert, but I don't see how the rumoured joint customs union for NI could be made to work within the transition period
and the EU want feasible plans only)

Thi is the first time I can remember the Irish media getting excited & a bit optimistic
Not just Irish Times, but RTE etc joining in

Doesn't mean BJ won't do a reverse ferret if the ERG, especially in Cabinet, shout at him
But not for Arlene

Tony Connelly@tconnellyRTE

So, following the Varadkar Johnson meeting, here’s where things are at

1/ Source says meeting was constructive, two leaders in private for most of the three hours, with teams of officials joining near the end

2/ talks concentrated on customs, consent and future relations between Ireland and UK

3/ Key thing is that on the basis of the meeting, Michel Barnier can make a call as to whether the negotiations can now intensify

4/ So a lot hinges on the Barnier/Barclay breakfast tomorrow morning

5/ Irish officials have fully briefed Task Force 50 officials in Barnier’s team. Irish and UK officials will also continue talking.

6/ Source wd not say whether things might reach fruition in time for next week’s summit

7/ But clearly there is a degree of positivity attached to this meeting

8/ a key point is that talks up till now have been seen as technical

9/ If following the Barclay/Barnier meeting tomorrow there is movement the talks shd move into “proper” negotiations

10/ Whether that’s a proper “tunnel” not clear yet

Well let's not get too carried away. We know every time there is a seeming bit of sensible that creeps in, the ERG throw a tantrum about it.

Remember they don't like the rest of the deal. It's not just the backstop that's a problem for the hardliners.

And the DUP.

Would it get through parliament?

Are there numbers for it?

Yep, half of the ERG cba over NI- they are in it for the Bonfire of Regulations,
so they really hate the "level playing field" stuff, which the EU would insist on

Even if the breakfast meeting tomorrow gives thumbs up, there is still a long way to go before we can be optimistic

imo, if there really is to be a deal .... BJ will need to request an extension !
31 October is barely enough time to agree basic principles
The fleshing out, legal text, revisions, approval by everybody .... another couple of months, but then there is Xmas / NY holiday
So 31 January would be suitable !

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

The Brexit process is just one endless series of bubbles of excitement rapidly expanding out of nowhere,
which are then punctured almost as quickly as they took to inflate.^

When MPs like Caroline Flint say on R4 Today this morning: "Just get it done, I haven’t a clue how to resolve the Irish border issue, but just get it done.” , who knows

We really do have MPs that ignorant and insensitive

My estimate of HoC support for any deal- iff Ireland / EU agree it is feasible:

Tories - Y. Most except the ERG hardcore
The latest 22 Tory rebels - Y. they were against No Deal, not against a deal
Earlier Tory rebels - ? some are fervent Remainers; probably most won't

Labour - most probably wouldn't, just because it would be a Tory deal
However, if Corbyn goes for it, then it'll pass

Those 19 Lexiters would vote for it,
plus probably another 20 even if Corbyn is against

LDems - Nope, except for that 1 Leaver, Lamb iirc
SNP - ? we need Pretty's opinion, but they won't like the backstop

DUP - N

imo, if there really is to be a deal .... BJ will need to request an extension !
31 October is barely enough time to agree basic principles
The fleshing out, legal text, revisions, approval by everybody .... another couple of months, but then there is Xmas / NY holiday
So 31 January would be suitable !

Nikki da Costa had a plan to get a deal through in ten days after the EU summit.

BUT

She went on maternity leave yesterday.

So that's a bit of an issue...