Brexit Arms - Pop Up

[time4chocolate]

Well I’m going to have a crack at this Landlady business and I’ve opened a pop up pub.

Rules are:
Anything brexit related is up for discussion and even not Brexit related if you feel the need (so if you want to discuss Haemoroids that’s ok too ).

I’m ok with a bit of arseyness (it’s an emotive subject) but if you go full monty in here I reserve the right to withhold all alcoholic beverages.

I have reserved a quiet table for MNHQ if they want to pop in for a quiet drink (Happy Hour is 6-7pm).

Haven’t properly caught up yet with today’s Brexit news yet but looks like we are finally facing end game, that said still plenty of days left for high jinks and holidays.

Anyone have any views on how they think the next few days will play out are welcome to voice here.

First drinks are on the house 🍻 Cheers

Plenty of atmosphere where I am, and strangely no leavers in sight.

Just to remind all my dear friends on here, the DUP voted against the Good Friday Agreement. So any po-faced bollocks about the proposed deal violating the sanctity of the GFA is disingenuous bullshit.

Bj and junker about to speak. Sky news

So if DUP really not onside then they will surely vote down the Queen's speech. I think that leads to a VoNC the Opposition will win and a GE?

Alternatively Nicholas Soames, Oliver Letwin, Alastair Burt, Stephen Hammond etc of the 21 starting to indicate support. Labour's Ronnie Campbell also saying will vote for the Deal. Not sure if there are more?

Without DUP, even with the 21 back Govt has No Majority.

Boris would really get a win/win if he gets a Deal, dumps the DUP and Brexit Party lite tag and then holds a GE while the Opposition fractured all over the place.

Juncker has said no extension reqd

I suspect the EU will give extension but only for explicit reason

MPs basically have to decide on Saturday whether they want deal or no deal

BJ needs enough abstentions & votes from opposition MPs (DUP have apparently said they'll vote against rather than abstain 🙄)

This pub's friend Faridge has accused the EU of being a thugocracy for not granting an extension and subverting the Benn Act.
Based on a non-decision maker's comment.
You lot couldn't make this shit up if you tried.

So we’re crashing out with no deal?

Too soon to tell @dirtyrottenscoundrel . Let's see what happens on Saturday.
They are hardly going to offer an extension when they have agreed a deal. But if the deal fails, the Benn Act requires Johnson to ask for an extension.
The EU want us out by June next year so they can agree their budget together.
Until then, extension is still an option. If they aren't fed up of our pathetic whining by that time.

Someone has crunched the numbers:

Conservatives including all of ERG 285
Labour Leave plus Labour for Deal 22 (excludes Kate Hoey)
Lib Dem for Deal 1
Independents (of 36 includ 21 ex Tory) 24

Government win and Deal passes on 332 votes

So theoretically possible.

So we’re crashing out with no deal?

Only if the self-styled 'anti no-dealers' in Parliament make it so 😂😂

So theoretically possible.

Nail biter...!!

Belini I posted on other thread that I think EU want us out now prior to new term on 1 November. From their PoV they have crystallised 2 alternative Deals. If both fail then surely better to negotiate with UK on the outside, even if their preferred option is us rejoining? Both Deal alternatives would give an excuse for Leave with a time limited standstill as a concession rather than another extension? Gives the EU a much stronger hand to help Rejoin campaign or negotiate back to a Deal than unlimited extensions, and unknowable GE / Ref outcomes.

I'll be writing to my MP (Labour Front Bench but dislikes Corbyn) asking him to support the deal.
Because I am an actual Anti-No Dealer.

@howabout , good point.

the opposition have been shite in all of this really and have done themselves no favours

All corybn can say is he won't vote for us selling assets to America.

Because I am an actual Anti-No Dealer.

👍

I live in hope that MPs will act in good faith this time round but am fully expecting to be disappointed once again

Amber Rudd apparently equivocating about voting for Deal despite saying she resigned over concern objective was No Deal - this is problematic for most of the 21 which is why I think most will back the Deal - expect still finessing regaining the Whip. Also rumoured Labour no longer tabling 2nd Ref amendment as they think they don't have the votes which means they don't have enough ex-Tory backing.

nice to be on the same page Dusty and Bellini. I preferred Revoke or No Deal to TM's Deal but am fine with the revamped version (see pp)

[finest Scotch] needs an icon especially since we can't export it to Donald atm. We'll likely drink it all ourselves to get through Indyref2 in any case - oh and apparently we now make more of this stuff

All corybn can say is he won't vote for us selling assets to America

What planet is Corbyn on?

Who knows Walking, who knows...?

Man's a fool - I fucking hate him

Presuming it passes on Saturday, what's the first best thing we've got to look forward to?

So we are leaving on 31st?

So bloomin’ confused.

I might have a biscuit

If this deal passes & we leave on 31st I shall be getting hammered howabout 😂

It will be a blessed relief to finally move on to sorting out the future instead of dwelling on the past.